Fundamental analysis: the game between policy signals and safe-haven demand
From a fundamental perspective, Trump's moderate statement is the core driving factor of this round of gold correction. However, as tariff expectations cool, investors are beginning to reassess the attractiveness of risky assets. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Tuesday, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell slightly, indicating that the market's confidence in the economic outlook has recovered. Against this background, the safe-haven premium of gold has been weakened, and profit-taking has accelerated.
In addition, the Fed's policy expectations are still an important variable affecting gold. At present, the market generally expects the Fed to continue to cut interest rates in 2025, but the pace and magnitude depend on inflation data and economic performance. If the expectation of interest rate cuts further heats up, the US dollar index may be under pressure, thereby providing some support for gold.
Technical analysis: pullback pressure and key support
The gold price fell below the support of $3,300, and the next key level points to $3,282, which coincides with the low point on April 17. If the decline continues, $3,150, as the pivot point in early April, will become an important defensive line for bulls. On the contrary, if the price stabilizes and rebounds, the pivot point of $3,415 will be the first resistance level, and further upward movement needs to pay attention to the higher resistance of $3,464. It is worth noting that the current price is far away from the resistance level of $3,415, and the rebound momentum may be limited in the short term, unless new fundamental catalysts appear to push the RSI back to the overbought area.
Quaid's comprehensive analysis:
The gold market has entered a consolidation phase after a rapid rise, and short-term correction pressure still exists, but in the long run, safe-haven demand and fundamental support remain solid. Quaid recommends that traders pay close attention to US policy trends, the trend of the US dollar, and the performance of key technical levels to grasp the market rhythm.
At the same time, Quaid will always pay attention to international news so as to make timely analysis and suggestions for traders; to help traders get out of the current predicament.
From a fundamental perspective, Trump's moderate statement is the core driving factor of this round of gold correction. However, as tariff expectations cool, investors are beginning to reassess the attractiveness of risky assets. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Tuesday, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell slightly, indicating that the market's confidence in the economic outlook has recovered. Against this background, the safe-haven premium of gold has been weakened, and profit-taking has accelerated.
In addition, the Fed's policy expectations are still an important variable affecting gold. At present, the market generally expects the Fed to continue to cut interest rates in 2025, but the pace and magnitude depend on inflation data and economic performance. If the expectation of interest rate cuts further heats up, the US dollar index may be under pressure, thereby providing some support for gold.
Technical analysis: pullback pressure and key support
The gold price fell below the support of $3,300, and the next key level points to $3,282, which coincides with the low point on April 17. If the decline continues, $3,150, as the pivot point in early April, will become an important defensive line for bulls. On the contrary, if the price stabilizes and rebounds, the pivot point of $3,415 will be the first resistance level, and further upward movement needs to pay attention to the higher resistance of $3,464. It is worth noting that the current price is far away from the resistance level of $3,415, and the rebound momentum may be limited in the short term, unless new fundamental catalysts appear to push the RSI back to the overbought area.
Quaid's comprehensive analysis:
The gold market has entered a consolidation phase after a rapid rise, and short-term correction pressure still exists, but in the long run, safe-haven demand and fundamental support remain solid. Quaid recommends that traders pay close attention to US policy trends, the trend of the US dollar, and the performance of key technical levels to grasp the market rhythm.
At the same time, Quaid will always pay attention to international news so as to make timely analysis and suggestions for traders; to help traders get out of the current predicament.
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