Strategic Outlook | XAUUSD | Tuesday, April 22, 2025

TUESDAY AFTER EARNINGS WEEK / POST-EASTER

Market makers love using Tuesday post-holiday to trap and fade over-leveraged weekend bulls.
Don’t chase, let price come to VWAP/VAL. That’s where they reload the big guns.

📌 Current Price: $3,452.12
📈 Daily Range: 3,411.79 – 3,500.11
📅 52-Week High: NEW ALL-TIME HIGH at 3,500.11
📢 News Catalyst: “Gold Futures Break Above $3,500 on Fed Concerns”
💥 Momentum: Insane — 31.47% YTD, +44% YoY. We’re in Supercycle Territory.
Daily Chart (Linear Regression 200 | STDEV 5)
Structure: Clean breakout from linear regression upper band — bull continuation zone.
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✅ Entry 1: Momentum Break + Retest (Smart Continuation)
Play the pullback after blowing out weak sellers at $3,500

🔫 Entry: Buy Limit @ 3,443.00 (Fib pivot + previous liquidity shelf)

🛑 SL: 3,417.00 (Below VWAP band + confirmed structure break)

🎯 TP1: 3,475

🎯 TP2: 3,490

🎯 TP3: 3,505+ (extension target)
🧠 Why: Price will likely retest previous breakout zone at 3,443–3,445 before continuation. This is the sniper's reload zone.

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Entry 2: Aggressive Breakout Run (Volume Confirmation Required)
If NY explodes volume again like earlier London/Fed candle

🔫 Entry: Buy Stop @ 3,462.50

🛑 SL: 3,444

🎯 TP1: 3,490

🎯 TP2: 3,500 (previous wick)

🎯 TP3: 3,517–3,529 (daily Fib 78.6% ext + ATR+2 zone)
📈 Confirmation: 5m volume bar > 35K
🧠 Why: You’re riding the breakout beast. Ride fast, manage risk tight.
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Entry 3: Liquidity Trap Reversal (Fade the Blow-Off Top)
Only execute if price smashes $3,500 again & immediately rejects with high-volume reversal

🔫 Entry: Sell Stop @ 3,488

🛑 SL: 3,503

🎯 TP1: 3,462

🎯 TP2: 3,444

🎯 TP3: 3,428
📉 Confidence: 45%
🧠 Why: This is the trapdoor. Only valid if $3,500 rejection aligns with divergence + VSA no-demand + distribution signal.
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Don’t FOMO the $3,500 wick.

Trade with structure or get devoured like retail pawns.
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ADX/DI: Strong DI+ (50.31), solid uptrend confirmation.

Volume MA: Still surging; buyers are not backing off.

ATR RSI: 26.83 — volatility expanding = breakout continuation bias.

🔎 This is classic markup phase post-breakout. Price is riding the SD5 rail like a rocket. Bulls still in full control.
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4H (240m) Chart
Price: Pulling back slightly from short-term peak.

ADX/DI: Bullish momentum cooling slightly (DI+ > DI−, ADX still elevated).

Dynamic Fibs: Holding above 0.382 = continuation bias unless 3,445 breaks.

Volume Spike: Heavy volume earlier = exhaustion possible — watch for NY volatility trap.

🧠 Strategic Mindset: Wait for either reclaim above 3,460 for continuation OR liquidity sweep down to VWAP zones for sniper longs
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1H (60m) Outlook
Price: Holding between dynamic Fib 0.236 (3,455) and VWAP (3,448).

ADX: Flatlining — trend is pausing.

Volume: Lower than average (Volume: 26.2K < MA: 32.6K).

DIs: Compression → Market maker accumulation or trap brewing.

🧠 Execution Zone: VWAP + VAL confluence (3,445–3,440) = prime bounce long area.