Gold fluctuates downward, bulls and bears play

Fundamentals: Weakened safe-haven demand suppresses gold prices
Despite the weakness of the US dollar index and the rising expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts (the market expects a cumulative interest rate cut of 53 basis points in 2025, and the first interest rate cut may be in September), gold has not been able to continue its rebound, mainly affected by the following factors:

Trade situation eased
The US-China tariff negotiations reached a 90-day suspension agreement, easing market concerns about economic recession, and the attractiveness of risky assets (such as stocks) increased, weakening the safe-haven demand for gold.

Trump visited Saudi Arabia and reached a $600 billion trade agreement, further boosting market confidence.

Moderate inflation data
The US CPI in April was lower than expected, which did not reflect the potential impact of tariffs on inflation, strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts, but failed to offset the impact of the decline in risk aversion.

Geopolitical dynamics
Potential progress in negotiations on the situation between Russia and Ukraine reduced market safe-haven demand.

Demand for gold imports in the Asian market declined (for example, India's trade deficit narrowed in April, partly due to high gold prices suppressing purchases).

Technical aspect: range oscillation, pay attention to key points
Daily analysis:
Price range: currently reported at 3231.35 US dollars/ounce, between the lower track of the Bollinger band (3198.53) and the middle track (3316.54), showing a "higher low and lower high" pattern in the short term, showing a long-short tug-of-war.

Key support:

3222 has provided initial support. If it falls below, it will look down to 3194 and the lower track of the Bollinger band 3198.53.

3200 is a psychological barrier, and a loss may accelerate the decline to 3167.

Key resistance:

The pivot point of 3243 is a short-term watershed, and it may test 3271 and 3293 after breaking through.

3300 is an important psychological resistance, and the middle track of the Bollinger band (3316.54) has strong suppression.

Indicator signal:

MACD: shows weakening momentum.
RSI: 48.36 (neutral zone), indicating that the market direction is unclear and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term.

Outlook for the future
Short-term driving factors:
US PPI data: If further evidence of slowing inflation is confirmed, it may strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts and support gold prices.
Geopolitical risks: If the situation changes suddenly (such as the resurgence of trade frictions and the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict), safe-haven demand may return quickly.

Technical path:

Bullish scenario: After stabilizing at 3243, the target is 3271-3300.

Bearish scenario: A break below 3200 may trigger selling pressure and drop to 3167.

Conclusion: Gold is expected to fluctuate in the 3200-3300 range in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to PPI data and geopolitical trends, and follow the trend after breaking through the key position.