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Gold looks like potentially going to complete a dump and pump started on Friday, but to understand better the logic behind this template, let's analyse the full week!
The previous Monday and Tuesday established the high low of the week, in fact Monday is the opening range into the new week and Tuesday the initial balance.
Wednesday, the market broke out, triggering long breakout traders in the market, closing out of balance (long traders are now potentially driving this move)
Thursday, from Asia session I could see a strong bearish move joining the market, closing the week out of the opening range and as well as a first red day, which is a potential short signal if a sell high opportunity is identified.
Monday, during the Asia session I saw a great short setup going to pulling back into the previous opening range high, retesting the same area in NY session and triggering as well short breakout traders in the market.
Note and focus on NY session, it placed a strong swing high and swing low which creates our box where money are above and below that boundary.
Today, the market consolidated inside this box, breaking higher just before the beginning of NY session.
What's my thesis?
Obviously I never predict the market but I let it to setup first, however my main thesis is currently LONG, because it can be a clear weekly template of breakout/pullback/continuation above the previous Monday's high, which is a template that I saw many times during the past months!
To take advantage of this template, I would like to see a market dumping down at least into the London low, consolidating till news release at 10am NYT for a buy low opportunity, back to the previous HOW.
Regarding the short, do not forget that Friday was a first reda day, yesterday it placed as well a lower low and it could preparing for a further move down if the market today will place and locked a HOD, consolidation for a session scalp pump and dump.
Before news release, I will be updating this chart!
Gianni