Analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) Focusing on Elliott Wave

7月20日

Comprehensive Analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) Focusing on Elliott Wave

Daily Chart Analysis

1. Wave Structure: The daily chart indicates that the fifth wave of a larger degree (5) is in development, with wave 3 of (5) forming as part of it.
2. Correction and Impulse Waves: The chart shows the completion of a fourth wave correction (iv) within wave 3 of (5), suggesting that wave v of 3 is forming.
3. Critical Levels:
• Support: 2347.67
• Resistance: 2560.00 – 2650.00

4-Hour Chart Analysis

1. Wave (iv) Completion: The H4 chart supports the daily chart analysis, showing the completion of the fourth wave iv of 3.
2. Development of Wave v: The chart suggests that wave v of 3 is in progress.

1-Hour Chart Analysis

1. Formation of Wave (i): The first wave of a smaller degree (i) of v has formed, indicating the beginning of an upward move.
2. Correction (ii): A local correction started developing as the second wave (ii) of v.

Key Observations:

1. Trend Continuation: If the correction completes without breaking the critical support at 2347.67, the expectation is for XAU/USD to rise towards the 2560.00 – 2650.00 levels.
2. Downside Risk: A breakout below 2347.67 could invalidate the bullish scenario, leading to further declines towards 2161.56 – 1988.70.

Technical Indicators:

1. MACD: The MACD indicates a slight bearish momentum in the short term but has not confirmed a strong downtrend.
2. RSI: The RSI on the H1 chart shows the market is approaching oversold conditions, suggesting a potential reversal.

Elliott Wave Patterns

• Primary Waves: The charts collectively suggest the formation of primary waves 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 within the larger degree fifth wave (5).
• Corrective Patterns: Several ABC corrective patterns are visible, supporting the continuation of the larger degree impulse wave.

Summary:

• The analysis across multiple time frames indicates that XAU/USD is in the process of completing wave (ii) of v. Upon completion of this correction, if the critical support level of 2347.67 holds, a continuation towards the resistance levels of 2560.00 – 2650.00 is expected.
• Traders should watch the 2347.67 level closely, as a break below this support could lead to a significant downside move.

This comprehensive analysis combines Elliott Wave theory with critical support and resistance levels, supported by technical indicators like MACD and RSI, to provide a robust forecast for gold’s price movements.

Market Sentiment:

• COT Longs: 84.37%
• COT Shorts: 15.63%
• Retail Longs: 57%
• Retail Shorts: 43%

Economic Growth Data:

• GDP Current: 1.40%
• GDP Forecast: 1.30% (Change: -0.10%)
• ISM mPMI and sPMI show minor negative changes.

Labor Market Data:

• NFP: 206k (Change: -12k)
• Unemployment: 4.10% (Forecast: 4.00%, Change: 0.10%)

Inflation Data:

• CPI: 3.0% (Forecast: 3.3%, Change: -0.3%)

Opinion:
The overall bullish sentiment for gold is supported by strong long positions from both COT and retail traders. The economic indicators such as GDP, ISM indices, and CPI are showing slight weaknesses, which might support a safe-haven asset like gold. Given the slight decline in inflation expectations and stable unemployment, gold could see positive movement if economic conditions worsen.