GOLD H4 Update: Bulls will target 3600/3750 USD Market Update

前天

🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update (June 16, 2025)
📊 Price & Technical Outlook

Current Spot Price: around $3,414 
Technical Setup
* Gold consolidating above major support at \~\$3,180–3,200
* Testing resistance at \~\$3,380–3,400; breakout could push toward \$3,600
* Recent price action considered a healthy consolidation with upside potential

🏆 Bull Market Overview
* Pullback likely complete; supported by strong geopolitical and macro tailwinds
* Key price levels: \$3,000 / \$3,200 / \$3,400 (resistance near \$3,400)
* Bullish target: \$3,600, with further upside possible if momentum holds
* Short-term dips remain buying opportunities—“buy the dip” remains favored

⭐ Recommended Strategy
BUY/HOLD: Continue to accumulate on dips, using \$3,200–3,300 as entry zones
Target: Maintain bull target at \$3,600, with breakout opportunity above \$3,400

🏦 Macro & Market Drivers

Fed & Central Bank Outlook
* Investors positioning for possible Fed rate cuts later this year, likely totaling around 75 bps by end of 2025
* Ongoing dollar weakness supports gold

Geopolitical Tensions
* Middle East unrest, U.S.–Iran dynamics, and global evacuations are fueling safe-haven demand for gold
* Continued volatility in global hotspots likely to keep gold elevated

Risk Appetite & Market Behavior
* Both stocks and gold are climbing—an unusual “optimism + fear” scenario
* Central banks, especially in China, India, and Turkey, have been strong gold buyers in 2025
* Speculative positions in gold futures remain high

U.S.–China & Trade Tariffs
* Unresolved U.S.–China tariffs and tensions continue to support gold
* Any easing in trade friction could temper gold’s advance

📰 Latest Market Sentiment

* Wall Street remains bullish on gold for the upcoming week, though some caution persists ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting
* Macro environment is seen as supportive for gold and other precious metals
* Gold’s rally is positively influencing the broader precious metals market

🌏 Demand Themes
* **Asian Buyers**: China may relax gold import quotas to manage currency, while India demand remains strong though can be seasonally slower
* **Central Banks**: Over 240 tonnes of gold added in Q1 by central banks, with China and India as top buyers

⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints
* Fed surprises: A more hawkish tone at the next meeting could push gold back toward \$3,200–3,300
* Geopolitical breakthroughs: Any stable resolutions could reduce safe-haven demand
* Large speculative position unwinds could create short-term volatility

🔎 Mid-Term Outlook Summary

| Scenario | Support | Resistance | Catalysts |
| --------- | ------------- | ---------- | ----------------------------------- |
| Base case | \$3,200–3,300 | \$3,400 | Rate cut expectations + geopolitics |
| Bull case | Above \$3,400 | \$3,600+ | Escalating risk, dovish Fed |
| Bear case | Below \$3,200 | — | Hawkish Fed, easing global tensions |

✔️ Final Take
* Technical and fundamental momentum supports a continued bull phase with key target at \$3,600
* Best strategy: accumulate on dips between \$3,200–3,300
* Key factors to watch: Fed’s next move (June 17), Middle East developments, U.S.–China trade actions, central bank buying

前天

註釋

🚨 Market Alert: Israel-Iran Conflict Impact Forecast 📈

🔴 Worst-Case Scenario: Regional War + U.S. Military Involvement
🚢 Oil (Brent): Soars to $150–$200+ if Strait of Hormuz closes
🥇 Gold: Skyrockets to $4,500–$5,000 (safe-haven rush)
₿ Bitcoin: Initial volatility; settles at $80k–$100k
📉 SPX: Crashes to 4,000–4,500
💻 NDX: Drops sharply to 15,000–16,000

🟠 Base-Case Scenario: Protracted Tension, No Major Disruption
🛢 Oil: Stabilizes at elevated $75–$95, occasional spikes
🥇 Gold: Moves higher, trading $3,500–$3,800
₿ Bitcoin: Trades steady, $90k–$110k range
📊 SPX: Pullback moderate, around 5,200–5,500
💻 NDX: Moderately lower, 18,000–19,000 range

🟢 Best-Case Scenario: Diplomatic De-Escalation
🌊 Oil: Eases down to $65–$75
🥇 Gold: Mild decline, holds at $3,300–$3,500
₿ Bitcoin: Positive sentiment, lifts to $100k–$120k
📈 SPX: Slight dip; stays strong near 5,800–6,200
💻 NDX: Minor correction, remains high at 20,000–22,000

昨天

註釋

GBPUSD H1 compression BUY/HOLD TP1 +100 TP2 +200 pips low risk