The latest gold trend analysis strategy on June 3:

6月2日

1. Analysis of the core drivers of the current market
Geopolitical risks escalate
The worsening of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has boosted risk aversion demand. Gold, the US dollar and US bonds have strengthened simultaneously, indicating that the market has a strong risk aversion sentiment.
If the situation escalates further (such as NATO's direct intervention), the price of gold may accelerate to 3400+.
Trade friction risk
The United States intends to expand steel and aluminum tariffs. The market is worried that the global supply chain will be hit again. The rebound in inflation expectations is good for gold.

Key risk events this week
Non-agricultural data (if the job market cools down → the Fed's interest rate cut expectations heat up → bullish for gold)
Central bank policy (ECB/Fed officials' speeches, if dovish, support gold prices)

2. Key technical signals (1-hour chart)
✅ Trend structure
The moving average is arranged in a bullish pattern (5EMA > 10EMA > 20EMA), and the price runs along the upper track of the Bollinger band, which is strong in the short term.
Key support/resistance:
Support area: 3340-3350 (previous high support + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement)
Resistance area: 3380 (psychological barrier) → 3400 (previous high + integer barrier)

✅ Momentum indicator
MACD: Double-line golden cross, the bar is enlarged, but close to the overbought area, be wary of short-term corrections.
RSI(14): 62 (not overbought, still has room to rise).

III. Refined Trading Strategy
1. Long Entry Plan
(1) Pullback and Go Long (Main Strategy)
Ideal Entry Range: 3340-3350 (Combined with K-line reversal signals, such as hammer line/bullish engulfing)
Stop loss: 3328 (break through previous low + channel lower track, confirm trend destruction)
Target 1: 3375-3380 (previous high pressure, partial profit stop)
Target 2: 3400 (look to 3420 after breakthrough)
(2) Breakout and Go Long (Secondary Strategy)
If the price breaks through 3380 strongly and stabilizes, you can go long with a light position, stop loss 3365, and target 3400-3420.
2. Short Hedging Strategy (Caution!)
If the price falls below 3328, it may turn short, and you can look to 3310-3300 in the short term (but it depends on whether the fundamentals have turned).

IV. Risk management and position control
Position ratio: a single transaction should not exceed 3%-5% of the total funds.
Stop loss discipline: strictly stop loss at 3328 and avoid emotional holding of orders.
Dynamic stop profit:
If the price reaches 3375-3380, you can reduce your position by 50%, and the remaining position will be protected by stop loss to 3350.
If it reaches 3400, exit all or keep a very small position to fight for higher prices.

6月3日

交易進行

With the recent tension between Russia and Ukraine and the repeated changes in tariff policies, the market's risk aversion has heated up, which has stimulated gold to go out of a wave of rapid stretch. On Tuesday, gold hit a high of 3388 for the second time and began to fluctuate and fall under pressure. At present, with the release of US economic data, the not very ideal data made the Fed officials very cautious about the interest rate cut. The US dollar index also took the opportunity to rebound, and gold fell rapidly. On Wednesday, we need to pay attention to the US ADP employment data in May.

Gold technical analysis:
Gold's 1-hour moving average finally formed a golden cross bull arrangement upward, so the bulls also accumulated upward momentum. Gold rose strongly and hit the 3400 line. The decline is an opportunity for more. The key position for longs and shorts is the 3350 line, the platform where gold competed below yesterday. After gold stepped back to 3350 for the last time, it started to rise without looking back. Therefore, the short-term support of 3350 is particularly important for bulls; if gold falls below 3350, the strength of gold bulls may weaken. Gold rose strongly yesterday and broke through the 3365 line of suppression. The bulls finally prevailed and the strength of gold bulls is still there, so it is bullish to go long if it falls back to a low level. The market is changing rapidly. Since gold bulls are stronger now, we should continue to follow the trend and go long. On the whole, in terms of short-term operation ideas for gold, it is recommended to buy on pullback as the main strategy, and short on rebound as the auxiliary strategy. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3370-3380 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3330-3320 line of support.