🧠 Overview
As global tensions escalate and risk sentiment deteriorates, it’s worth revisiting how major asset classes behaved during past war scenarios. The Gulf War (July 1990 – March 1991) offers a clean case study with distinct phases of market psychology.
📊 What This Chart Shows
A synchronized visual comparison of:
Gold – Classic safe haven behavior
S&P 500 – Risk asset sentiment
DXY – USD demand during crisis
🧭 Phases Identified
Phase 1 – Shock
📈 Gold spikes | 📉 Stocks crash | 📉 USD weakens
→ Panic phase as markets price in uncertainty
Phase 2 – Consolidation
Market stalls, both risk and safe haven flows stabilize.
Phase 3 – Gradual Risk-On
Equities begin recovering as risk appetite cautiously returns.
Phase 4 – Shake-Off & Parabolic Rally
Gold rolls over, stocks go parabolic, and DXY forms a double bottom.
🔍 Key Insights
🟡 Gold surged +17% in 43 days, then faded
🔴 SPX dropped -17%, then reversed with a +26% rally
🟣 DXY fell -9%, but rebounded sharply later
⏱️ Timing matters: Safe havens perform early — but are not eternal shelters.
💡 Why It Matters Today
If current geopolitical risks evolve into a Gulf War-type scenario, we might observe:
🟡 A first wave into Gold or USD
🔁 A rotation back into risk assets as clarity improves
📈 Opportunities for reversals in oversold names
This chart is not a forecast — it’s a framework. Patterns may not repeat, but they often rhyme.
✍️ Ongoing Series
This is part of a multi-part series exploring how markets react to war and crisis. Future posts will include:
Iraq War
Russia-Ukraine 2022
9/11 aftermath
COVID-19 as a “war-like” shock
📌 Follow for the next studies.
🧷 Chart: Gold, SPX & DXY during the Gulf War
🔖 Annotated and structured by fredcast80
As global tensions escalate and risk sentiment deteriorates, it’s worth revisiting how major asset classes behaved during past war scenarios. The Gulf War (July 1990 – March 1991) offers a clean case study with distinct phases of market psychology.
📊 What This Chart Shows
A synchronized visual comparison of:
Gold – Classic safe haven behavior
S&P 500 – Risk asset sentiment
DXY – USD demand during crisis
🧭 Phases Identified
Phase 1 – Shock
📈 Gold spikes | 📉 Stocks crash | 📉 USD weakens
→ Panic phase as markets price in uncertainty
Phase 2 – Consolidation
Market stalls, both risk and safe haven flows stabilize.
Phase 3 – Gradual Risk-On
Equities begin recovering as risk appetite cautiously returns.
Phase 4 – Shake-Off & Parabolic Rally
Gold rolls over, stocks go parabolic, and DXY forms a double bottom.
🔍 Key Insights
🟡 Gold surged +17% in 43 days, then faded
🔴 SPX dropped -17%, then reversed with a +26% rally
🟣 DXY fell -9%, but rebounded sharply later
⏱️ Timing matters: Safe havens perform early — but are not eternal shelters.
💡 Why It Matters Today
If current geopolitical risks evolve into a Gulf War-type scenario, we might observe:
🟡 A first wave into Gold or USD
🔁 A rotation back into risk assets as clarity improves
📈 Opportunities for reversals in oversold names
This chart is not a forecast — it’s a framework. Patterns may not repeat, but they often rhyme.
✍️ Ongoing Series
This is part of a multi-part series exploring how markets react to war and crisis. Future posts will include:
Iraq War
Russia-Ukraine 2022
9/11 aftermath
COVID-19 as a “war-like” shock
📌 Follow for the next studies.
🧷 Chart: Gold, SPX & DXY during the Gulf War
🔖 Annotated and structured by fredcast80
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這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。