GOLD CRASH REBOOT

已更新

This is the reboot to analysis of Gold prices.

I spent the last 45 days soul searching and found something worth sharing. I'll post it now and work on details later.

The title is kind of a misnomer, but I intend it to be that way.

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UPDATE FRIDAY 2:40 PM CT

If gold is in a bull market, which after March crash and rebound is hard to disagree with, there should be 1 more high before a major move down. This much respect needs to be given for Elliot Wave Theory.

On a 405-min bar basis (seems arbitrary, but it's not) this is the most accurate of price action I can generate after 45 days of backtesting.

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UPDATE FRIDAY 2:50 PM CT

Here's what I've a decisively confirmed the last 7 weeks.

1. XAUUSD (OANDA) provides the best volume information for gold prices
2. XAUUSD (ICE) provides the best pricing information for spot but not by that much more over OANDA''s, we are talking 99-98 ratio for accuracy
3. GC volume information has not supported the pricing moves
4. there are giant questions in terms of what COMEX's and LBMA's custodians are doing
5. you can get opposing in formation by just sticking to 1 time frame on a zooming basis

For the purpose of this illustration , we will pick 9 options for time frame: 5hr, 6hr, 7hr, and so on to 13hr bars. You can get a strongly bullish 6 hr and a bearish 12 hr so in order to get a true picture, you have look at all 9 charts. This concept is different from zooming all the way out like 1hr to 5hr to dayly and weekly, that's just the same chart unless you have regression layering device.
For example, if you are using a factor of 5:

Then 1d, 5d, 25d, 125d, would give you the SAME chart because all you are doing is zooming with regression layering. Same goes for 2, 10, 50, and 250. BUT, they are different sets, there fore will provide a different picture, if you look at ALL the sets on 1 factor basis, so will get the TRUE PICTURE.

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UPDATE FRIDAY 3:09

Its strange, I have very little $ riding on this right now. But more of mental and emotional investment then I have ever had. Catch you later, space cowboys.

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UPDATE FRIDAY 3:21 PM CT

This is the binary option, but its a 2:1 dog vs the chart at top. This can change immediately on Monday.

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UPDATE FRIDAY 3:23 PM CT

From here on out, I will post both charts at the the beginning with the favorite getting more real estate ond screentime until the market changes significantly.

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UPDATE FRIDAY 3:31 PM CT

Expectations for Mon/Tues. Scenario 1: fall to 1683, its a strong buy on Tuesday. Scenario 2: BB squeeze to 1738 on Tuesday (meaning very tight action), it's super strong buy. Especially 10 days a head of June NFP, this would be granted an AAA rating.

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UPDATE SATURDAY 9:32 PM CT

If XAUUSD stays above 1693 AND makes a new high above 1765, then 1693 is the floor before the next series of highs.

If you trade GDX or GDXJ, ALWAYS WATCH THE LAST 10 MINUTES OF EVERY DAY WITH A VOLUME DERIVATIVE, doesn't matter which one, OBV, MFI, CMF, any of the volume indicators Tradingview have are great too. I have found that the last 5 minute bar has a strong volume spike pretty much everyday that correlates strongly well with the following day's action.

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UPDATE SUNDAY 9:31 AM CT

This is XAUUSD (OANDA) v. GC1! 405-min bars, with regression layering for price and volume for compare/contrast. From this I can confidently say:

1) the severity of the March correction was due to selling in the futures market
2) the strength of the all the way back up correction was because of real demand in the spot market
3) the higher prices in the the futures market is a reflection of broken bid-ask spread BECAUSE THE VOLUME LAYERING ABSOLUTELY DOES NOT SUPPORT SUCH A FURIOUS RALLY
4) but that doesn't mean that the spot price is "more" accurate, if anything it implies the reverse because it is" under control" in an extremely emotional market at in an extremely rare situation
5) so what? so this is saying that XAUUSD corrects to 1685 but GC1! would go to 1635, and that's probably not happening
6) after looking at everything over the weekend, my position remains the same more correction on Monday and Tuesday, the severity of the correction is highly interesting in this context

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COMMENT

As always, the most important indicator is PRICE, not volume.

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COMMENT

Because your profits and losses are determined by exit PRICE - entry PRICE.

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UPDATE SUNDAY 10:24 AM CT - GC1! CORRECTION 1662, NOT 1635

Ran it again because 1635 seemed low, and got 1632 for GC, XAUUSD is still 1685. What this means is that XAUUSD can make a new high in June, but not GC. June to early August is the worst time of the year for Gold seasonality, just google "gold seasonality 30 or 40 year chart".

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CORRECTION AGAIN, GC 1662 not 1632 or 1635.

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UPDATE SUNDAY 10:33 AM CT

This is what GDXJ looks like right now.

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SEE SI1! POST BELOW.

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UPDATE SUNDAY 11:52 AM.

GLD agrees with XAUUSD.

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UPDATE SUNDAY 12:33 PM CT

This is GLD, 90-min bars, the top is price and the bottom is volume. At the top, the orange bolded line is 3-period linear regression curve (LRC), black is 9-period, blue is 27-period, red is 81-period, gray is 243, purple is 729, and the faded red is 2187. All the skinny lines are in between curves for each group, for example for the first red bolded line (which is 81-period), the lines leading into it would be 75, 69, 63, 57, 51 and so on.

This means that I'm using a 3 multiplier-based regression layering. The bottom is "baiscally" an ema-chaikin oscillator for each corresponding line at the top. So imagine a volume-adjusted MACD, for EACH CORRESPONDING LINE AT THE TOP. And then corresponding Bollinger Bands for the major (bolded) periods, this I need to adjust the color for. So if I use different time frames, I get different looking charts unless it's a multiplier of 3. So, 10 min, 30 min, 90 min, and 270 min charts all look the same only you are switching colors and there are less bars. But a 60 min chart WOULD LOOK DIFFERENT, bc 60/3=20, not 10 or 30. 20, 60, 180, 540 would all look the same, except for different colors and size bars. For this reason, I can tell that at higher count minutes, for example 1100 and 1200 minute bars, the software is weak because I get the same looking price regressions that should look different when I use different software, even on tradingview-derivative by investing.com (free) but you dont get to choose your bar size.

So 2A is the first notable top for 81-period LRC and 2B is the 2nd top, which for the majority of the time will cause the higher level regression (27x3=81-period) to also top. By that definition, 2B can be divisible into 1A and 1B. For the great majority of the time, it takes the 1B-2 route (top is in). But IVO (the volume indicator set) is not showing enough weakness in GLD or XAUUSD, but IT IS showing that weakness in GC1!.

So that's basically my secret sauce absent a couple things I need to hold secret.

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typo: ... higher level regression (81x3=243-period).. which is the dark gray bold set

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COMMENT

I forgot to mention this about Elliot Wave, I said the outcome of the next few days is interesting bc I can get a strong 5-wave count in GC (meaning is top is in), but for GLD which reflects XAUUSD, it counts better as wave 4 of 5 right now or 4 of 3 of 5. I don't label them because there's too much confirmation AFTER the fact.

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That said, for all assets in the financial world, Elliot Waves works the best for gold prices, full stop.

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UPDATE 8:44 AM CT

Markets not open bc memorial day. But take note: GC1! is $2 or $3 less than XAUUSD, this after 100 days of higher prices.

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And... GC1! low this morning was 1718 vs 1721 for XAUUSD.

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UPDATE MON 9:00 AM CT

I think futures close at 12:00 or 12:30 and reoppen at 5:00 PM. Any how, despite low volume action, bulls need to defend 1726 today or its 1710 or lower by 8:00 PM.

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UPDATE MON 11:45 AM CT

Well then, what about that spike? Well, what about it? Here's a compare/contrast of 3 situations, 15 min bars:

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Here is a better shot:

A) price jump and dump, but volume says there was real buying, implies change of trend
B) price jump and dump and jump again, volume confirms with real money flow in
C) price jump and what else?, I don't know yet but volume says there was no real money coming, just lack of tight bid-ask spreads

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So what then? Nothing, no change of thesis.

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UPDATE MON 9:48 PM

Odds of the binary route has gone up but still a dog 60-40, at best 57-43.

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UPDATE MON 9:52 PM

It just does not look ready to move up absent some major news event. It looks like there should be 1 more test of 1717 Tuesday afternoon.

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UPDATE MON 10:11 PM

Odds of binary route is 50-50 If we hit 1739, but it doesn't become a favorite until it it retests and pass 1722 after that, or stay above 1722 through Tuesday evening.

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UPDATE TUESDAY 12:04 AM

160 MIN BARS IS SAYING THIS PRETTY CONFIDENTLY:

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS SPARKLING!!

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UPDATE TUESDAY 9 AM

Sellers running out of juice. Bears have make their point now or its all the way back up. I covered my shorts moments ago, selling just not convincing. I want to be long before the close.

I also want to start GOLD CRASH REBOOT PART 2, its juncture that deserves a fresh map. Will do it today.

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UPDATE TUES 9:41 AM

IF YOU ARE SHORT, YOU WANT TO COVER BY EOD.

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UPDATE TUES 9:50 AM

Despite not getting lower like originally forcasted, GC1! moderately weaker than XAUUSD today, hitting 1708 and 1717 respectively. IVO is not worthless after all.

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UPDATE TUESDAY 10:04 AM

JUST WENT LONG XAUUSD 1712

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UPDATE 10:21, A little testy here. I believe in bull thesis, but it also needes to hit 1735 by Wednesday close. 1707 stop loss for the rest of the day, in case of shenanigans.

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UPDATE TUESDAY 11:11 AM

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TUESDAY 11:24 AM CT

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COMMENT

27-DAY BB says this resolves by Thursday open. But there's just not enough selling to break this down, so the path of least resistance is up, or maybe just more coiling.

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COMMENT

For the record, I think the bottom was this morning, I dont think we are going lower. If it's later today it should right around here anyway.

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UPDATE TUESDAY NOON

THIS IS ROUGH DRAFT FOR "GOLD CRASH REBOOT #2". I need to clean it up and make it more accessible.

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COMMENT

This is so stupid, but GC doesnt look like this. It looks like its going follow the chart at the top. So again, we arrive at an annoying situation. I gotta do some thinking.

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UPDATE TUESDAY 2:20 PM CT

Thid is XAUUSD, but with consideration for the problems with GC1!. If you zoom out, it looks like an AUGUST 2019 fractal, only BIGGER.

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UPDATE TUES 8:06 PM CT

Its going to be a triple step up bottom. So today is the first one, tomorrow I want to see 1737 or something. So Thursday might open high bit close low, that will be a second bottom. So Monday a third bottom. Kinda like a 1-2, 1-2 in elliot waves.

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UPDATE TUESDAY 9:36 PM CT

HERE IS THE NEW MAP!!

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9:38 PM

NO MORE UPDATES HERE, ALL UPDATES WILL GO TO:

tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/hdHsyyxs-REBOOT-PART-2-GOLD-CRASH-SIDEWAYS/

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Here we are again, it took the path of GC1! and not XAUUSD. I dont have a clue why. This is saying that sometimes futures drive prices but sometimes they dont. This time they did.

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UPDATE WED 9:02 AM

Will update again after I look trough the 18 charts, 2 sets of 9.

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UPDATE WED 9:15 AM CT

Because it is taking GC1!'s route, I will run the charts for GC and post the two routes for comparison. In the meantime, updates will continue here until REBOOT PART 3.

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UPDATE WED 9:40 AM CT

1732 next.

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UPDATE WED 10:38 PM CT -- SOME FOOD FOR THOUGHT

CHECK OUT THE INFINITE VOLUME OSCILLATOR ON GC2! IF IT DOES MAKE A NEW LOW, IT CAN'T BE MUCH LOWER.

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UPDATE WED 10:53 PM -- SOME MORE FOOD FOR THOUGHT

FIRST IS XAUUSD 18 BARS 2 POSSIBLE ROUTES NEAR TERM

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GDX AND GDXJ SAYS SHORT TOMORROW'S BOUNCE

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COMMENT WED 11:41 PM CT

In summary 1 more gold high over 1800 around 6/19.

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UPDATE:

AROUND THAT DAY 6/23, THERES GOING TO BE GIANT SHORTING OPPORTUNITY

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UPDATE THURSDAY 5:20 AM

THIS IDEA HAS NOW CLOSED. CONTINUE HERE, CLICK ON CHART OR CUT AND PASTE LINK.

tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/hdHsyyxs-REBOOT-PART-2-GOLD-CRASH-SIDEWAYS/

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By the way, dont short the miners in this situation.

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THIS I DEA HAS NOW CLOSED. PLEASE FOLLOW REBOOT PART 2. CLICK ON CHART OR GO TO LINK BELOW.

tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/hdHsyyxs-REBOOT-PART-2-GOLD-CRASH-SIDEWAYS/

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COMMENT: LOOK AT THE PRICES I POSTED FOR GDX AND GDXJ ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT 34.90 AND 46.25. TODAY IT HIT 34.86 AND 46.47 RESPECTIVELY AND PULLED BACK. IF IT GOES DOWN MON/TUES, AND I THINK IT WILL FOLLOW GC AND XAUUSD, THINK ABOUT HOW NUTS THAT IS.

I DID SAY TO NOT SHORT THEM ON THURSDAY, BUT I WOULD HAVE TODAY THE SAME TIME AS I SHORTED GLD, SEE POSTS IN REBOOT PART 2.