黃金現貨 / 美元已更新 #XAUUSD (Gold / U.S. Dollar)
🕓 Time Frame: 4-hour Chart/Close
🔽 Status: Bearish
📆 4/7/24
Analysis:
#gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price started to rise after we were neutral on the commodity, after reaching $2365, gold experienced a correction and, with a 100-pip drop, is now trading around $2355-$2358.
Key Observations:
Current Price: Trading around $2355 after a significant correction from $2365.
Target Achievement: Successfully hit targets at $2355 and $2360.
Correction: Experienced a 100-pip drop from the peak at $2365.
Summary of Powell's Speech:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent speech indicated a potential shift from the Fed's hardline stance on monetary policy. While the Fed decided to keep interest rates steady, Powell hinted at possible future rate cuts depending on economic conditions. This dovish sentiment contrasts with previous communications, suggesting that the Fed may adopt a more accommodative stance if inflationary pressures ease.
Economic Data Highlights:
Interest Rates: Held steady at 5.25%-5.50%.
GDPNow Forecast: Revised down to 1.5% for Q2 2024, indicating slower growth than previously expected.
PCE Price Index: Inflation remains persistent, with a year-over-year increase of 2.6% in May 2024.
Industrial Production: Increased by 0.7% in May 2024, showing moderate industrial growth.
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.0% with strong job gains.
Impact on XAU/USD:
Short-Term Sentiment:
Powell's dovish hints have introduced some bullish sentiment for gold (XAU/USD), as lower interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
Despite this, the current strength of the US dollar, which remains above the 103-mark, continues to challenge gold's upward momentum.
Market Reactions:
Gold prices saw a minor recovery, with spot gold advancing by 0.3%, reflecting a slight positive sentiment ahead of Powell's speech.
However, the technical outlook remains mixed, with gold prices hovering below key moving averages and showing signs of bearish sentiment in the short term.
Technical Indicators:
Gold's price is currently near critical support levels, indicating potential for a short-term bounce, but overall market sentiment remains cautious.
Conclusion:
Powell's speech has added a layer of complexity to the gold market. While hints of future rate cuts are positive for gold in the medium term, the immediate strength of the US dollar and mixed economic signals are keeping gold prices under pressure. Investors should watch for further inflation-related news and any concrete policy shifts from the Fed to better gauge gold's direction.
🔽 Status: Bearish
📆 4/7/24
Analysis:
#gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price started to rise after we were neutral on the commodity, after reaching $2365, gold experienced a correction and, with a 100-pip drop, is now trading around $2355-$2358.
Key Observations:
Current Price: Trading around $2355 after a significant correction from $2365.
Target Achievement: Successfully hit targets at $2355 and $2360.
Correction: Experienced a 100-pip drop from the peak at $2365.
Summary of Powell's Speech:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent speech indicated a potential shift from the Fed's hardline stance on monetary policy. While the Fed decided to keep interest rates steady, Powell hinted at possible future rate cuts depending on economic conditions. This dovish sentiment contrasts with previous communications, suggesting that the Fed may adopt a more accommodative stance if inflationary pressures ease.
Economic Data Highlights:
Interest Rates: Held steady at 5.25%-5.50%.
GDPNow Forecast: Revised down to 1.5% for Q2 2024, indicating slower growth than previously expected.
PCE Price Index: Inflation remains persistent, with a year-over-year increase of 2.6% in May 2024.
Industrial Production: Increased by 0.7% in May 2024, showing moderate industrial growth.
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.0% with strong job gains.
Impact on XAU/USD:
Short-Term Sentiment:
Powell's dovish hints have introduced some bullish sentiment for gold (XAU/USD), as lower interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
Despite this, the current strength of the US dollar, which remains above the 103-mark, continues to challenge gold's upward momentum.
Market Reactions:
Gold prices saw a minor recovery, with spot gold advancing by 0.3%, reflecting a slight positive sentiment ahead of Powell's speech.
However, the technical outlook remains mixed, with gold prices hovering below key moving averages and showing signs of bearish sentiment in the short term.
Technical Indicators:
Gold's price is currently near critical support levels, indicating potential for a short-term bounce, but overall market sentiment remains cautious.
Conclusion:
Powell's speech has added a layer of complexity to the gold market. While hints of future rate cuts are positive for gold in the medium term, the immediate strength of the US dollar and mixed economic signals are keeping gold prices under pressure. Investors should watch for further inflation-related news and any concrete policy shifts from the Fed to better gauge gold's direction.
交易進行
UPDATE!👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD Correction after the rally: Bears still dominate
📈 GOLD → From rally to consolidation. Rest before NFP...
Analysis:
Gold (XAUUSD) has strengthened following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. His light positive notes led to a sell-off in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), causing a small rally in gold prices to $2364. Today is a public holiday in the U.S., leading to reduced liquidity, and tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is highly anticipated.
Current Market Conditions:
U.S. Holiday: Reduced market liquidity may result in high volatility but weak movements.
Resistance Levels: $2364, $2375
Support Levels: $2353, $2341
Technical Analysis:
Resistance Testing: Gold is currently testing resistance and liquidity areas.
Correction Formation: With a strong distribution, there is a high probability of correction rather than a breakthrough.
Bearish Patterns: Local bearish patterns are appearing on the chart, suggesting a potential correction to gather momentum before the NFP report.
Conclusion:
False Breakout: After the recent distribution, a false breakout is forming, indicating no immediate potential for an upward move.
High Probability of Correction: Given the current technical setup, there is a high probability of a correction or consolidation.
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