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GOLD short term SELL setup (wave analysis + 2020 forecast)

已更新

My previous gold sell idea was about bearish wave 4(yellow). and it was nicely done.
Now predicted wave 5(yellow) seems to be finished. 1st target(1221.3 - 100% of wave1) is reached.
Wave 5 is clear 1-2-3-4-5 (green) structure.
In my view, currect bull market corrects [jul2016 - dec2016] bear market.
Anyway it should be (A)-(B)-(C) upward move.
Wave (A) 1-2-3-4-5(yellow) seems to be done.
So now wave (B) should unfold. it should correct at least 38% of wave (A) - 1186 (1st SELL target)
Other possible SELL targets for wave (B) are 1182, 1162 and 1148.
After wave (B) is done wave (C) unfolds.
Possible BUY target may be 61.8% retracement of [jul2016 - dec2016] bear market - 1278.
After wave (C) is done long term bear market begins.
Here is BIG view on gold:

Gold is inside long term bear market, which started in 2011 when price was 1922.
Wave A(red) is done. wave A is 1-2-3-4-5.
Wave B(red) corrected 38% of A. Seems to be done. Wave B looks like a-b-c zig-zag.
Wave C(red) is unfolding, if wave B is done.
Long term SELL targets for wave C(red) are 829 (61,8% of wave A) and 493(100% of wave A), which may be reached in feb2019 and oct2020.

註釋

wave (A) is comleted.
now wave (B) unfolds. it's unpredictible, but it should correct at lease 38% of wave (A).
so, 1st price target is 1198.

註釋

forget to mention:
2nd target for wave 5(yellow) is 99% reached (1246)
wave 5(yellow) structure is broken.
there is also divergence between 3rd and 5th waves inside (green) wave 5 on 1h chart.

註釋

in case of wave (A) is 5 wave structure, entire (A)-(B)-(C) structure should be zig-zag.
and wave (B) should correct 38-78% of wave (A)
so gold price should droped to this range [1198 - 1148.97]

註釋

looks like wave A [diagonal] inside wave (B) [A-B-C] is formed.

交易進行

good sell opportunity.
I'm not confident that wave B is done. anyway gold should fall in near term.

註釋

looks like B wave (flat/bull market) is stile in formin.. dont put sl there.

註釋

sorry text mistakes.
wave B may exceed 9 feb tops.(1244.5)

註釋

In my view corrective wave B(blue) is still forming
s-term BUY targets are 1242.85, 1253.25.
Price shouldn't exceed 1256. if it does, sell setup is wrong.
if setup is valid, after that I expect a good SELL opportunity (drop to 1198 at least)

註釋

gold reached 1st buy target 1242.85
there is a possibility of reverse at this level, but I expect one more swing up toward 1253 target.

註釋

1253 is reached

註釋

gold went beyond 1256.75.
it means that wave count needs to be updated.
wave (A) was done at 17jan.
wave (B) corrected 38.2% of (A).
currently gold is inside wave (C).
buy targets are: 1277 and 1336.
when wave (C) is done, I expect a long term bear market.

註釋

s-term analysis

交易進行

gold is back on track

註釋

final move up
gold might stopped at 1274.54.
don't overtrade.

交易進行

wave (A) is 5 wave structure. wave 5 = 61.8% of wave 3
wave (B) unfolds.
zig-zag (5-3-5) is expected.
gold should fall to the range of 1210-1152

交易結束：目標達成

gold entered target range [1210-1152]

no divergence is seen on H4, so there is no signs of reversal.
sell looks still active, but I don't have accurate target right now, only range.
it's like: gold view changed from active sell to passive sell / hold.
trade with care. use trailing stop loss order.
after gold stops falling I expect a good buy opportunity. pretty big bull market, which should complete (A)(B)(C) correction pattern and begin new big long term bear market.
big picture (1 bull market expected before long term bear market)

alternative big picture (2 bull markets and one bear one expected before long term bear market)