Binary_Forecasting_Service的FX_IDC:XAUUSD的GOLD 01/10-03/08 BREAKOUT, DRAFT 4, FINAL SETUP DRAFT

GOLD 01/10-03/08 BREAKOUT, DRAFT 4, FINAL SETUP DRAFT

INTRODUCTION - This is the second 01/19/24 binary, 3-hour bar, 16-trading day ultra detailed, CONTINUOUS & EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. From the notes in end of DRAFT 3, this revised "inverse head-and-shoulders" break-out scenario is derived from all combined current trends from micro to super long. This is the final setup draft because it's either like this or I give up. If it is like this, I will finish this time frame with daily binaries (5-1, 5-2, .... and so on).

DETAILS - In chart above, very light blues and very light oranges are from DRAFT 3. The difference with this "final draft" is the "rhythm" from here to 02/02. Even though we did not even test resistance today, combined data from 20 trend maps say we will Sunday night into Monday, and break resistance either Tuesday PM or Wed AM. Price should complete retest of support next Friday. Once again, the way the intermediate trends are set, this route does not allow high 2-way vol from 02/02-02/09. This is because the shorter intermediate trends ARE SO FAR BELOW the longer intermediate trends, that the resetting of their position (think catch-up repositioning) require price action to be - more or less - a straight one way line (as opposed to zig-zag and regular retracing) and that 2060-2130(or 2140) must also be restricted to 6-7 trading days.

WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.

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8:08 PM ET, 15-MIN BAR.
a) moved it to 15 min bar for higher detail
b) just forgot to change the notes

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8:15 PM ET, JUST REALIZED I PROBABLY DON'T HAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR DAILY BINARIES..
a) I am dealing with "life" in general right now
b) I really wish I have time for it
c) because when intermediate map is right..
d) daily binaries can hit PERFECT PERFECT PERFECT for weeks at a time
e) anyway, wanted to clear that up
f) thank you for reading

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g) will still add notes several times daily
h) will play it by ear

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01/21 12:31 PM ET, COMPARE AND CONTRAST:

a) red hi-light moved over for sizing comparison
b) the short term regressions are weaker now
c) but the intermediate is stronger
d) if you were reading that Friday, I called for 2140 but on Monday
e) it came so fast Sunday night I called for 2065 next but lowered it to 2030 before Monday morning
f) we won't have that aggressive spike this time (unless it's past 2230)
g) and we DONT WANT THAT either if we are want 2700 in late May

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SUNDAY, 1:17 PM ET, 4-MIN BAR BINARY CONTINUOUS BINARY FOR NEXT 40 HOURS

a) if you were here when I did this everyday sometimes twice a day...
b) the more often this is updated the more precise it is
c) the next 16 hours should head to 2049 by Monday around 8AM
d) the bull route is more specific, there's not that much variation between trend maps
e) if it chooses bear route here, it should still move sideways a bit and then spike down
f) but there's much variation in possible routes for bears but ALL OF THEM are
g) sideways to down
h) remember: if price goes off script and I don't update immediately (ahead of time or withing a few minutes)
i) then the plan is dead until I post something

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01/21 2:18 PM ET, minor change:

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5:59 PM ET 1 MIN TO GO:

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a) in chart above it's not complete ... but I had no more time left
b) so the darker blues is WHAT I AM WORKING ON...
c) but I don't think it's quite right
d) I think it should be faster or BETWEEN LIGHT BLUES AND DARK BLUES

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6:09 pm
a) so should be a bit weak at first
b) until 8 or 8:30
c) after that, 2037 around at midnight

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6:18 pm and also raise the ceiling for tomorrow, 2058

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6:42 PM ET, editting in 4 min bars:

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a) so chart above is favorite until noon tomorrow
b) expectations are 2058 then check to support/resistance which
c) looks like it will break Monday night

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7:46 PM ET

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a) for chart above, if I using 1, 2, 4, 8 min bars only...
b) the call HAS TO BE ORANGE OR BEAR WIN
c) you can only call blue here, with everything from 54-min, 160-min, and 8-hour bar

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a) for chart above: if you weren't here when I was still doing "around the clock updates"
b) I have pretty much proven in those 100 days that...
c) THE MOST ACCURATE means THE MOST UPDATED so...
d) if you can't update CONTINUOUSLY AROUND THE CLOCK...
e) your view on daily prices are irrelevant because
f) you have to adapt to new information continuously ALL THE TIME
g) so for those new people who insist one the whole chart working
h) that's NOT supposed to happen
i) what's supposed to happen is the forecaster has to respond immediately to every
j) .16-.25% move that's "off the expected course"
k) so as I said before, if price moves off course and I don't post something
l) SCRAP THE FORECAST AND MOVE ON

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9:01 PM 2029.14, dragging and I'm looking into it. Not suspicious, yet.

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9:42 PM ET... Man I feel so bad for Josh Allen and Bills fans. That said, GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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9:57 going into neutral zone now, and small bars late for most bull routes

a) for chart above:
b) my first scans of trend maps still favoring bulls, but not as strongly as was before open
c) bear route odds slowly rising (of course)
d) and ceiling that I moved from 2049 to 2058 tomorrow, is dropping again

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e) 10:05, here's with all the oranges on and what this means now:

f) for chart above: bulls CANNOT go sideways now...
g) if bulls do not push up now and price go sideways here
h) then oranges will be favored before we get to midnight
i) while it's true that intermediate trends still favor a bullish move
j) current price action means by 11:30, BULLS HAVE TO PROVE IT
k) or bears are favored for the next 8 hours maybe longer

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10:36 2027.xx., raw odds have bear move to 2016 favored for next 8 hours
a) they have until 2 AM to break 2025 and push down
b) if price hangs at 2027 until 3AM, then bulls are favored again...
c) by now, the ceiling has dropped again to 2049
d) but how price gets there, is not obvious at al because all the routes from 4 minute bars posted before open are eliminated

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10:55 PM so here' 3 routes to tomorrow currently implied
a) I don't like any of them because they hall have flaws
b) so I'm done with tonight
c) will add tomorrow morning

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d) what I mean when I say I don't like them...
e) is because none of them make sense to me

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01/21 , 12:02 AM ET... so here is where I got to before I update in the morning

a) in chart above: I used grays this time
b) because they are LANDING IN THE MIDDLE OF BLUES AND ORANGES
c) so they are short term neutral
d) that's all I got
e) while intermediate trends still turning bullishly
f) I don't know if that would still be true once we get through this gray area
g) this will take all of Monday, Tuesday and half of Wednesday...
h) this automatically kills DRAFT 4, but improve odds for DRAFT 3...
i) we will cross that bridge Wed-Thur-Fri
j) good night

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1:39 AM ET - UP FOR A MINUTE, SET ON GRAY RIGHT NOW:

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a) for chart above:
b) at this point in time DRAFT 3 is looking than better than DRAFT 4
c) the difference is just the rhythm from here to 01/31, 02/01, and 02/02
d) otherwise, overall expectations have not changed
e) DRAFT 3 should pick up end of Tuesday
f) if bears want to win, they kind of have to do it today
g) if they let price follow gray path (neutral zone) for all of Mon and Tues
h) the combined momentum of all time frames should kill bear routes Tues night into Wed
i) that's it for overnight update
j) the purpose of "around the clock updating" is to prove continuous accuracy in short term forecasting (something that many don't think possible)
k) I disagree on that point with the exception that...
l) again, when I sleep I cannot see
m) so the weakness of around the clock updating is basically how long before I wake up and respond to new data
n) and good night again

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2:03 AM ET: BTW, to answer the question why go through so much effort?
a) first, replay DRAFT 1: when I confirmed short term orange route was winning

b) then replay DRAFT 2: which forecasted what that orange route "would lead to

c) then replay DRAFT 3: which, in 3H bar has ONLY BEGUN TO MISS a little bit

d) again, as it stands DRAFT 3 will (should) be the favorite again end of Tuesday
e) that lead to DRAFT 4 which is what you are reading
f) so DRAFT 1-2-3-4 are "intermediate binaries"
g) where the daily stuff post within this page are "daily binaries"...
h) that are constructed over the foundation of the previous intermediate binaries
i) to maximize predictive accuracy
j) again, "daiily" binaries are only meant for 12-16 hours, sometimes less
k) that's why they need updates once or twice a day
h) that's a lot of work...
i) true
j) BUT NOT FOR A COMPUTER
k) and that's the whole point
l) to prove to some people that it's worth their investment

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m) some people call that "chasing a ghost"
n) or searching for a " holy grail" or a "philosopher's stone"
o) let's just agree to disagree

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9:16 AM ET.. so gray route died:

a) on my phone, can't do much forecasting from it
b) I think next move is up...but I haven't seen all trend maps
c) so clueless for daily binary right now
d) will add more later

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01/22 12:06 PM SO THIS IS THE END FOR INTERMEDIATE DRAFTING

a) in chart above: light blues and oranges taken from DRAFT 3
b) dark blues and oranges make UP DRAFT 4
c) gray is expected price action for Tues-Wed-Thurs
d) so this development kills all intermediate drafts to this point
e) and ends intermediate drafting altogether
f) so all I can do now is daily binary

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g) this kills the intermediate drafts because we no longer have enough tie for "reverse heads and shoulders formation"
h) all we left IF bull thesis wins later...
i) are irregular routes and shapes that can be highly unpredictable

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4:19 PM ET THIS POST HAS ENDED, SO TO WRAP UP LOSE ENDS

a) for chart above: price showing NO interest in following gray route
b) gray route itself is a question mark.... it's not obvious that price will follow bull or bear
c) but if price rejects gray route...
d) the only way is down and it doesn't have to be straight crash or anything
e) just driftting and dragging slowly (a week or two would kill all the remaining irregular bull routes going out to March/April)
f) a move under 1975 would shut the door on all of that
g) have a good one, I'll post something if there's something worth posting about

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01/22, 8:37 PM ET, so this one's easy because there's an obvious trend line, but:

a) so skipped that gray route
b) that means odds that this line will hold is high right now
c) should go to this box 2000 or less tomorrow

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d) i feel pretty good about this move
e) but I'm not up tonight so that line is a hard stop bc I am not updating

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9:53 PM ET 2022.86

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a) I don't like the micro trends here
b) it hasn't hit 2024, but I think it will
c) so cancel the short here is probably the best move

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d) I have conflicting signals from different trend maps now
e) bears still winning overall but they are not as strong as I thought
f) bc I thought it would've dropped already buy it still hasn't
g) so that 70:30 is approaching 60:40...
h) sideways longer and it's 50/50 again
i) but the base 3x regressions are intermediately very bullish some of them
j) so its a red flag to not short and wait it out

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k) what price action is basically saying is bulls aren't ready to die
l) my opinion is they better step up quick it or it maybe over for them way ahead of 1/31 FOMC
m) the base 2x regressions have to routes 1975 (and lower) ready to go, meaning the route is obvious
n) the base 3x regressions are bullish by trend count, but the bulls' route IS NOT OBVIOUS
o) in summary, we can pick a better spot

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01/22 10:19 PM ET OK SAY REPLAY THIS ONE:

BTC 6,000? GIVE ME A BREAK. TRY 16,000!!

a) this was a chart for bitcoin calling for 16000 when "all the experts" were calling for 6000
b) nailed it AND THEN SOME...
c) so why bring it up?
d) I'm going to bed now but the THESIS FOR THAT FORECAST (trend ratios)
e) is the major reason why I have NOT gave up on gold bull thesis
f) because we have, or more precise HAD the same setup (ratio wise)
g) but that very reason is starting to disappear bc if bears break 2000 here and go under
h) THAT WILL KILL THE THESIS
i) but until they do... they haven't yet
j) we can wait one more week

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l) that SAME EXACT MATH HAS US GOING 2 RALLIES TO 23XX by 03/08

m) but WE HAVE TO HOLD THE LINE RIGHT HERE
n) and it just tagged 2024 again as I type
o) I don't have any reason "to be excited" yet
p) but those reasons can still come with 2 caveats
1) we hold the line here and bounce off 2024
2) we need to break resistance and get in position before 01/31 FOMC
3) 02/02 is also NFP
q) so there's that
r) we still have time
s) but clock is running as it always is

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t) so good night, I'm waiting for a clear route for DRAFT 5 ... I don't have one yet

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u) meanwhile that means bulls are aiming for 49 and 58 Tues and Wed

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v) forgot the chart:

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w) I didn't make a "complete binary" bc this spot is HARD AF to map..
x) bc there's so many short trends going different directions and disagreeing
y) to the call is base on the thesis for the move NOT A MAP
z) put a stop in somewhere near support line, you'll be fine

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01/23 12:25 AM ET FOOD FOR THOUGHT:

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12:48 AM AND BREAK DOWN OF BASE 2 VS MAP ABOVE:

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Driving on my phone. Can't measure possible in coming spike to 44. 9:32 AM.

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01/23, 10:09 AM, from now to end of Friday:

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11:09 AM, to cover all bases:

a) so there's two routes here and blue SHOULD WIN...
b) if bears push for orange route, then that's a bad sign for 01/31 FOMC

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c) no there's one more

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So 6:17 PM ET 2029.XX we are heading for 2038, so before midnight
a) so all extrapolations show 2 tops now
b) the second top should be tomorrow morning
c) 8 hours ago, maps said the high is tonight
d) now I am not sure..
e) after it drops from 2038.... it will push a second time...
f) I can't tell how far up bc the bollingers have shrunk vs regressions
g) so 2049 obviously checks to 2038 WED morning... and that's it

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h) meaning I can't speculate beyond that move
i) bc too many outcomes

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取消訂單

01/23 9:49 PM ... something really wrong here when this moved to 2024-25
a) this move is ugly on so many levels
b) like something just broke, but what's so important about 2025?
c) I have no clue what it's doing now
d) normally, at this zone, you get INSTANT SHARP V, we didn't get that and it's still slipping
e) so dangerous AF right now

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01/23, 10:30 PM ET 2024.78, so about 90 minutes ago, something broke
a) the move from 2028 to 2025, even though just 3+ points...
b) for base 3 regression layers was a statistical outlier
c) it's so counter-trend for those maps, that it means that price is BEING FORCED DOWN
d) I am not here to debate manipulation (could care less)
e) I am here to discuss where price is going
f) so earlier, we were on our way to 2038 and by exteension 2049
g) the fact that the move from 2028 to 2024.5 DID NOT GET A HARD V SPIKE...
h) is a very bearish signal
i) it's one those things that I do not see a lot
j) and when I do, I search for a "breakdown or break up moment" and leverage it
k) it may not be this week or next week, but there should be an excessively bearish zone ...
l) some time int the next 15 trading days
m) that's a wrap for this one, good night

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AND HERE IS 5-DAY GENERIC EXTRAPOLATION: