September began with a weak US jobs report and news that Japan had raised interest rates from zero to 0.25%. This sent the CBOE Volatility Index (the “fear index”) soaring from 16 to 38, and crowd favorites like the yen carry trade and the world’s most important stock, Nvidia (NVDA), down double digits.
In his speech at Jackson Hole in late August, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at future rate cuts. “The time has come for policy to be recalibrated,” he said. “The path is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on the data, the outlook, and the balance of risks.” So they got the message. Rates are falling and the data is weak. The latest US jobs reports show fewer people being hired, fewer new jobs being created, and layoffs are happening more frequently.
In his speech at Jackson Hole in late August, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at future rate cuts. “The time has come for policy to be recalibrated,” he said. “The path is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on the data, the outlook, and the balance of risks.” So they got the message. Rates are falling and the data is weak. The latest US jobs reports show fewer people being hired, fewer new jobs being created, and layoffs are happening more frequently.
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