The European economy is deteriorating, and the odds of gold 1 to
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This week is considered the worst week for gold, because gold has fallen for 5 consecutive days. Although the decline is not very large, it fell 1.56% this week, but the overall lethality is still very large. It is mainly due to the decline in confidence, which has a lot to do with the strong rebound of the dollar. From the perspective of the time period, the overall trend has continued to fluctuate since the 7th, and the focus in the later period is still on the support of 1910, which will be further analyzed later. From a fundamental point of view, the reasons for the continuous shock and decline of gold and silver are as follows:
1. After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 525 basis points in less than a year and a half, the market increasingly believes that the end of the U.S. tightening cycle is approaching. The inflation data released by the U.S. this week may add evidence to this expectation.
20:30 Canadian July CPI annual rate (%) 2.8 2.9 high
2. U.S. bonds were sold off, and rising yields supported the U.S. dollar to put pressure on gold prices.
3. Retail spending in China and India rebounded, supporting physical gold buying.
Judging from the current structure, the overall is suppressed by the strong rebound of the US dollar, and the key here is that the rise in US bond yields has suppressed the key gold bulls, and the focus in the later stage is to look at the structural development of the US dollar and US bonds!
Focus on the data next week:
At 20:30 on the 16th, Canada's July CPI annual rate (%) was 2.8 2.9 high
At 14:00 on the 17th, the annual rate of CPI in July in the UK (%) was 7.9 6.7 high
At 21:15 on the 18th, the monthly rate of industrial output in the United States in July (%) -0.5 0.3 High
02:00 on the 19th, the United States --- The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.
In terms of news, the overall news next week is relatively light, but there are some things to focus on, such as the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 12, Japan’s CPI in July, etc. Next week, we will take a look at each Analyze the situation.
1. European Economic Index: On August 15, the Eurozone will announce the August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, which is expected to remain relatively low. Achim Wambach, president of the ZEW, said economic expectations in the euro zone were turning more negatively. Financial market experts expect the economic situation in the euro zone to deteriorate further by the end of the year, especially in the industrial sector. If this is the case, there will be a greater probability that gold and silver will be bullish as a whole.
2. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States: It seems to have reached a sustained and higher level in June this year, exceeding 260,000 for three consecutive weeks. But initial jobless claims have been falling for more than a month. This shows that the U.S. economy is recovering, and there is a greater probability that it will be regarded as a small negative and a golden white.
3. Japan's CPI: On August 18, Japan will announce the July CPI. The market expects that the annual rate of Japan's national core CPI in July will be 3.1%. Although it is lower than the previous value of 3.3%, it is still at a relatively high level.
In addition, we should pay attention to the minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the minutes of the July monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve.
1. Fed meeting: The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled on July 26, on the grounds that inflation is still high, and the Fed has reached the highest interest rate in 16 years. The hike was the 11th of the Fed's past 12 meetings, with the central bank setting its benchmark overnight rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, and the policy statement left the door open for another rate hike. On August 17, the Federal Reserve will announce the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting, from which you can learn more about the thoughts of Fed officials. There will be at most one more interest rate increase in the future, so overall it will peak. It just depends on what kind of interest rate cuts will be made in the future. This thinking is the key.
We are in the fourth period of possible weakness in the core CPI during the epidemic period. The monthly average change in core CPI in SA terms and what has happened to this measure over the ensuing three months as inflationary pressures have returned. It is unclear whether the same thing will happen this time, but the outcome will affect the direction of financial markets during 2023, as well as the tone of central bank communication and decision-making, as the market has returned to pricing in a significant easing by the Fed in 2024.
On the technical side, gold and silver continued to fluctuate and fall this week, and the overall bullish risk is further rising. From the perspective of the time period, the focus next week will be on the turning point on the 16th. Before that, the turning point on the 11th is expected to be a low point, or It is not important, the key is to look at the 16th. If it is a low point, the overall outlook will be until late August, but the detailed time will not be announced. But from a structural point of view, the focus is on the breakthrough between 1910 and 1921. This is the key to determining how to go after the 16th.
From the above structure, 1893 is the most important key point. If it breaks down, the overall short position may continue to be bearish until around 1810. However, if it does not break down here, there will be pressure to break through 1988 as a whole, and the whole will open a big market. There is room for bulls, so this is very important, and if you break through upwards, you will break through this year's high, so you must be decisive and long. Moreover, in the later period, we still look at the rise of 5 waves in the big 5 waves, but it can only be regarded as an adjustment of 2 waves at the moment, and the breakthrough after that is to confirm the rise of 3 waves.
Weekend predictions, please plan ahead
This week is considered the worst week for gold, because gold has fallen for 5 consecutive days. Although the decline is not very large, it fell 1.56% this week, but the overall lethality is still very large. It is mainly due to the decline in confidence, which has a lot to do with the strong rebound of the dollar. From the perspective of the time period, the overall trend has continued to fluctuate since the 7th, and the focus in the later period is still on the support of 1910, which will be further analyzed later. From a fundamental point of view, the reasons for the continuous shock and decline of gold and silver are as follows:
1. After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 525 basis points in less than a year and a half, the market increasingly believes that the end of the U.S. tightening cycle is approaching. The inflation data released by the U.S. this week may add evidence to this expectation.
20:30 Canadian July CPI annual rate (%) 2.8 2.9 high
2. U.S. bonds were sold off, and rising yields supported the U.S. dollar to put pressure on gold prices.
3. Retail spending in China and India rebounded, supporting physical gold buying.
Judging from the current structure, the overall is suppressed by the strong rebound of the US dollar, and the key here is that the rise in US bond yields has suppressed the key gold bulls, and the focus in the later stage is to look at the structural development of the US dollar and US bonds!
Focus on the data next week:
At 20:30 on the 16th, Canada's July CPI annual rate (%) was 2.8 2.9 high
At 14:00 on the 17th, the annual rate of CPI in July in the UK (%) was 7.9 6.7 high
At 21:15 on the 18th, the monthly rate of industrial output in the United States in July (%) -0.5 0.3 High
02:00 on the 19th, the United States --- The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.
In terms of news, the overall news next week is relatively light, but there are some things to focus on, such as the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 12, Japan’s CPI in July, etc. Next week, we will take a look at each Analyze the situation.
1. European Economic Index: On August 15, the Eurozone will announce the August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, which is expected to remain relatively low. Achim Wambach, president of the ZEW, said economic expectations in the euro zone were turning more negatively. Financial market experts expect the economic situation in the euro zone to deteriorate further by the end of the year, especially in the industrial sector. If this is the case, there will be a greater probability that gold and silver will be bullish as a whole.
2. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States: It seems to have reached a sustained and higher level in June this year, exceeding 260,000 for three consecutive weeks. But initial jobless claims have been falling for more than a month. This shows that the U.S. economy is recovering, and there is a greater probability that it will be regarded as a small negative and a golden white.
3. Japan's CPI: On August 18, Japan will announce the July CPI. The market expects that the annual rate of Japan's national core CPI in July will be 3.1%. Although it is lower than the previous value of 3.3%, it is still at a relatively high level.
In addition, we should pay attention to the minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the minutes of the July monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve.
1. Fed meeting: The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled on July 26, on the grounds that inflation is still high, and the Fed has reached the highest interest rate in 16 years. The hike was the 11th of the Fed's past 12 meetings, with the central bank setting its benchmark overnight rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, and the policy statement left the door open for another rate hike. On August 17, the Federal Reserve will announce the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting, from which you can learn more about the thoughts of Fed officials. There will be at most one more interest rate increase in the future, so overall it will peak. It just depends on what kind of interest rate cuts will be made in the future. This thinking is the key.
We are in the fourth period of possible weakness in the core CPI during the epidemic period. The monthly average change in core CPI in SA terms and what has happened to this measure over the ensuing three months as inflationary pressures have returned. It is unclear whether the same thing will happen this time, but the outcome will affect the direction of financial markets during 2023, as well as the tone of central bank communication and decision-making, as the market has returned to pricing in a significant easing by the Fed in 2024.
On the technical side, gold and silver continued to fluctuate and fall this week, and the overall bullish risk is further rising. From the perspective of the time period, the focus next week will be on the turning point on the 16th. Before that, the turning point on the 11th is expected to be a low point, or It is not important, the key is to look at the 16th. If it is a low point, the overall outlook will be until late August, but the detailed time will not be announced. But from a structural point of view, the focus is on the breakthrough between 1910 and 1921. This is the key to determining how to go after the 16th.
From the above structure, 1893 is the most important key point. If it breaks down, the overall short position may continue to be bearish until around 1810. However, if it does not break down here, there will be pressure to break through 1988 as a whole, and the whole will open a big market. There is room for bulls, so this is very important, and if you break through upwards, you will break through this year's high, so you must be decisive and long. Moreover, in the later period, we still look at the rise of 5 waves in the big 5 waves, but it can only be regarded as an adjustment of 2 waves at the moment, and the breakthrough after that is to confirm the rise of 3 waves.
Weekend predictions, please plan ahead
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