GOLD → Friday Pin-Bar. What should we expect?

2023年10月22日

XAUUSD continues to strengthen despite the resistance levels that are encountered along the way, which tells us that there is a strong bullish interest as gold is a protective asset in times of crises. But there is always a but!



We have to face quite a lot of fundamental news in the coming week. Worth paying attention to:

• - S&P Global Services PMI
  
• -FED Chair Powell Speaks
  
• -Core DGO, DGP, Initiall Jobless calaims.
  
• - Core PCE (MoM, YoY)
  

Last week the dollar index received news of a possible weakening, which affects the pricing - the dollar is in a narrow range, which may foreshadow further declines, in which case this nuance could be an additional lever for further gains in gold.



Now, from the point of view of fundamental analysis, the situation is somewhat different than at the time of COVID-19, although related to the geopolitical crisis, but of a slightly different format. If the situation in the Middle East worsens, this conflict could turn into an official war, and we should not forget about the conflict in Eastern Europe.

If we look at the weekly correlation between US500 , XAUUSD , DXY in the chart above, we can see that gold is no longer following the indices, while the dollar is showing weakness due to FED sentiment and US500 has its own nuances with the crisis in companies and a lot of rumors. Money is flowing into gold right now.

I think price is capable of testing the upper boundary before the end of the year, but won't break it the first time. The market will not pass the 2050-2075-2100 density in the distribution phase



Gold is testing an important resistance area 1984 - 1985 and is forming a candlestick setup that may initiate a small counter-trend correction to increase liquidity before further gains. In Friday's review, I said that gold may start a correction, as 1984 will be difficult to pass the first time due to the large pool of liquidity above this area.
On Monday, I expect a retest of this level or even the market may try to test the local high and form a small pullback (either within one day or several days), after which further growth will continue, as the market considers 2000, 2025 and 2048 as targets

MGC1! GC1! XAGUSD SI1! US500 DXY

Regards R. Linda!

2023年10月22日

註釋

The weekly timeframe paints us with a medium to long term outlook
1) I don't think resistance at 2075 will be broken on the first try
2) A bounce may follow
3) On a subsequent retest, 2075 will be weaker and could give in for a further breakout
4) There are a few guesses for the future prospects based on analysis and preliminary data, but we continue to monitor the fundamentals and the development of the situation, As soon as there is confirmation, I will share it with you ;)

2023年10月23日

註釋

A reversal formation may be formed for market correction