Geopolitical Hedging vs Monetary Policy: Gold Trading Tips

6月20日

Gold prices continued this week's correction trend during Friday's Asian trading session, once falling near the one-week low. Although there was a slight rebound afterward, the overall trend remained in a weak adjustment pattern. This correction was mainly affected by the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve. At this week's policy meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the dot plot showed that only two rate cuts are expected by the end of 2025, while the rate cut expectations for 2026 and 2027 have been postponed. Even so, the US Dollar Index fell after hitting a weekly high, which provided some support for gold prices. In addition, growing trade concerns and escalating tensions in the Middle East have enhanced safe-haven demand, limiting the decline in gold prices.

From the 4-hour chart of gold, the current bullish momentum is dominant, and the resistance near 3375-3380 is clear. The pullback of gold prices has not broken through the upward channel for the time being, and the medium-to-long-term upward structure remains intact. If the Middle East conflict escalates or trade risks intensify, it may trigger a rebound and repair rally in gold prices. The daily chart closed in a doji star pattern, with prices retesting the middle 轨 of the Bollinger Bands, maintaining a volatile downward rhythm. The hourly chart shows significant downward characteristics, and a bearish strategy can be maintained before the resistance is broken. The resistance range is 3375-3380, and the support range is 3340-3345.

XAUUSD
sell@3070-3075
tp:3360-3350

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6月21日

交易進行

During this round, the price was sold off sharply from the historical high of 3,500 to 3,120 before rebounding. After consecutive rallies, it faced pressure and fell back to 3,452 due to the fading of market risk aversion. On Friday, it rebounded from a low of 3,340. The daily chart recorded a consolidative bearish candle, with the K-line combination leaning bearish, while the 4H chart showed signs of stopping the decline.

In the short term, it is expected to consolidate below 3,400 next week. For the medium term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical crisis and the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision. A breakthrough node will be ushered in after confirming the resistance above 3,400.

On the short-term 4-hour chart, the support below is focused around 3,340-45, and the short-term resistance above is around 3,380-85. The key focus is on the suppression at the 3,400-05 level. The overall strategy of going long on pullbacks within this range remains unchanged. For medium-term positions, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines, avoid chasing orders, and patiently wait for entry at key levels.

6月22日

交易結束：目標達成

The key short-term focus remains on the Middle East. The Israel-Iran conflict continues to simmer, and the U.S. has intervened. Over the weekend, U.S. President Trump announced that U.S. warplanes had launched strikes on Iran's three major nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—news that instantly ignited the Middle Eastern powder keg.

This development will impact gold at Monday's opening, with a gap-up almost certain. The gold dip-buying rebound we've emphasized will, fueled by this news, drive gold to continue rallying. Technically, the bullish trend remains intact, and with fundamental stimulus, gold's upside momentum is further reinforced. For this week, our strategy centers on buying dips and going long, with the rebound likely to extend after next week's open.

On the 4-hour chart, monitor support around 3340–3345. Spurred by weekend Middle East tensions, the short-term resistance at 3380–3385 is due for a breakthrough, while the 3405–3415 zone remains a key resistance level. The core approach stays long on pullbacks; avoid chasing mid-range levels and wait for key entry points.