Economic weakness pushes up gold as a safe haven

Fundamental core driver
Weak economic data strengthens expectations of rate cuts
PPI and retail sales decline: PPI in April was -0.5% month-on-month (expected +0.2%), retail sales growth fell to 0.1% (previous value 1.7%), and manufacturing output was -0.4%, indicating an economic slowdown.

Market reaction: 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 11 basis points to 4.435%, and the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 75.4%.
Weak dollar: The U.S. dollar index fell 0.2% to 100.82, and the real interest rate (TIPS) fell below 1.8%, supporting gold pricing.

Geopolitical risks escalate

Russia-Ukraine deadlock: Putin refused to attend the peace talks, Zelensky called it "disrespectful", and safe-haven demand increased.
Middle East uncertainty: Differences in the Iran nuclear agreement negotiations have not been resolved, and the risk of geopolitical conflict continues.

Long-term support factors
Global central banks continue to buy gold (more than 1,000 tons in 2024), stagflation risks (high inflation + low growth), and weakening of the US dollar credit.

Key technical points
Support level:
Short-term: 3200-3210 (psychological barrier + 4H Bollinger middle track)
Medium-term: 3160 (trend line + 60-day moving average)

Resistance level:
3260-3270 (4H previous high pressure zone)
Long-term goal: 3330-3350 (gap filling + historical high)

Technical signals:

Daily MACD bottom divergence, RSI oversold rebound, short-term rebound momentum is strong.
Breaking through 3260 may start a new round of rise, and falling below 3200 may drop to 3160.

Trading strategy
Short-term (intraday to week)

Bulls:
Entry: 3200-3210 stabilizes or the US dollar index does not break 100.50.
Target: 3260-3280, stop loss below 3180.

Short:
Entry: 3260-3280 encounters resistance or the US dollar index stabilizes at 101.
Target: 3220-3200, stop loss above 3290.

Medium-term (monthly)
Bullish logic: central bank gold purchases, stagflation and geopolitical risks support.
Entry: If it falls back to 3160-3180 without breaking, build long positions in batches, stop loss 3130, target 3330-3350.

Risk control
Strict stop loss: short-term ≤2% position, medium-term ≤5%.
Event avoidance: pay attention to the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and import price data in the United States, and reduce positions before the announcement.
Summary and risk warning
Core contradiction: short-term economic data and geopolitical risks dominate fluctuations, and the medium- and long-term structural benefits remain unchanged.

Potential risks:
Federal Reserve hawkish signals or breakthroughs in Russia-Ukraine negotiations trigger a pullback.
Technical overbought repair (short-term gains are too large).
Operation principle: light position, strict stop loss, priority attention to the breakthrough direction of the 3200-3260 range.

Key events:
US import price index and construction permit data in April.
Progress in the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks (if there is no breakthrough, safe-haven demand may heat up again).