Mixed structure on Gold's Intra-day basis

2022年11月17日

Gold's general commentary: Recovery continuation on Gold throughout one of the most Volatile sessions of the Trading week (Tuesday's and Wednesday's session), in configuration (which should be Technically Bearish for Gold) on the E.U. opening aftermath, where Bond Yields (# -2.00%) possibly reached the Bottom and are currently on aggressive takedown path at the moment, which is adding constant Buying pressure on Gold. Uptrend on Gold is stalled as news hit all market classes and trend Intra-day shift on both DX and Bond Yields on spiral downtrend can accelerate Gold upwards and touch #1,800.80 psychological benchmark. I will continue Buying Gold as long as Bond Yields are without a recovery and DX on such weak numbers. Fundamental events should appear as relief news (at least for Gold’s Buyers) and make DX break well defined Support fractal and Gold to gain (much more attractive for Investors which are and will be looking for safe-haven assets in High demand), but configuration went other way around, and not to calculate more, there is the rule which I mention constantly (what was the Support, becomes the Resistance and vice-versa), I am a bit surprised that Gold recovered this much without a catalyst and #1,782.80 Medium-term Resistance got tested and invalidated on multiple occasions will shift Gold from Neutral to Bullish on Short-term. I will monitor the situation and will await for confirmation of a breakout (either below the Hourly 4 chart’s Support or Daily chart Resistance), in order to Buy again, pursuing #1,800.80 benchmark with my set of Buying orders. That is the plan and it is my belief that it is the most viable one to get the most of the current Price-action.


Technical analysis: I still don’t have entry confirmation as Technically Gold was Trading on Ascending Channel but isolated within Rising Wedge, however both correlating assets are Trading on disappointing numbers so Bullish trend is here to stay. If Price-action tests #1,762.80 - #1,765.80, I will use that as an re-Buy zone, however if #1,772.80 breaks and market closes the session above the line, I will Buy Gold on spot towards #1,800.80 benchmark. It is my belief that I didn’t missed much by being on sidelines for last couple of sessions as classic #1,770.80 - #1,782.80 Bollinger bands Trading session worked quite well throughout yesterday's session, as the Hourly 4 chart’s Support zone paused the downtrend on DX. Price-action continues to be under heavy Volatility in an attempt to price in viable Support and the Resistance. I see no alternative besides this range Intra-day. Above #1,782.80 Resistance (candle closing) is Bullish continuation, below #1,752.80 - #1,755.80 Support zone, aggressive Selling sequence. The upside potential is significant (even though Bearish Short-term Technicals) and can extend at least to #1,800.80 benchmark (symmetrical sequence from the January High’s) on the Short-term. If U.S. opening delivers Bullish spike near Resistance and DX reverses Intra-day recovery attempt (and Bond Yields continue with parabolic downtrend), I may see quiet a Bullish session as U.S. opening Bell approaches. By my estimations regarding Long-term, Gold is set for an aggressive correction, buy only if local High’s is priced in. Personally, Gold could pierce the #1,800.80 psychological benchmark within #1 session, and then I can expect #1,752.80 mark test and #1,727.80 sequence in extension.


My position: All this above delivers an "no call" decision for me, as only Scalpers are getting the most of the return out of the Price-action and is too early for me to position myself on the market. If #1,762.80 breaks, #1,752.80 Medium-term Support may be filled Intra-day, however if #1,768.80 semi-Resistance gets invalidated, #1,782.80 can be tested again (arising Buyers). I am not in a rush to make my next move as Gold's recent structure carries huge rate of risk, market is picking a side and deciding where to Trade next.