XAUUSD weekly update 27.11 -1.12

2023年11月26日

Gold moved pretty much sideways last week, building up strength to break the October high.
The question is not whether the breakout will happen or not, but how deep the retracement will be. Will it be a deep retracement and the start of a choppy price action like last year or not?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/K4i8NQBU/


Top-Down Analysis

3 weeks
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZeDson7O/
For now, the price is forming another bullish manipulation.


1 week
https://www.tradingview.com/x/MKtvJ8QQ/
Until I see a rejection like the last time, my bias remains bullish.


2days
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CdtKkVhd/
I have marked the area of my reaction which lies with the 4H zone.



Benchmark

https://www.tradingview.com/x/FTnlFNE8/

The commodity index has fallen, but gold has been fairly stable in the various markets.


COT Reports

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hjhf9U8L/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/703plkwy/

It seems that the professionals are not in a buying mood, as they expect a correction or sideways movement.



US Yields
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FtElJhNW/

Yields have been falling in recent weeks on expectations of a cut next year. With the projection from the FOMC Minutes stable at 5.25-5.5%, yields are likely to rise for a while, which could lead to choppy price action on gold.


XAUUSD vs GDX

https://www.tradingview.com/x/onQUkl7T/

Not much has happened since last week. The trend is still bullish, but it is not clear whether a correction is coming or not.


Gold vs Silver
https://www.tradingview.com/x/e8VQ2Amd/

Silver has formed a very strong candle, suggesting some bullish movement in gold. Silver is also approaching the reaction area. This is another indication that we may see a significant correction very soon or some kind of consolidation.


Momentum

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yRS10ako/

The momentum is not very clear, but there is still room for gold to rise.