XAUUSD Long Setup – Retest of Broken Structure & Safe-Haven Flow

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Gold has pulled back to retest a strong former resistance (now support) zone around $3,385–$3,390. This level aligns with a previous breakout and marks the neckline of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. The pair is now showing bullish structure with back-to-back continuation patterns (bull flags), suggesting further upside potential.

Given escalating geopolitical risk (Iran-Israel strikes, Trump-led evacuation urgency), slowing Fed cut expectations, and softening inflation-adjusted yields, gold remains in demand.

🔍 Technical Analysis:
Structure: Higher highs and higher lows maintained.

Support Zone: $3,385–$3,390 (retest zone) – bulls stepping back in.

Targets:

TP1: $3,451

TP2: $3,470

TP3: $3,495 (new local high)

Stop Loss: Below $3,369 (recent low)

Pattern Context: Bull flags continue to form and break bullish – reinforcing trend.

🧠 Fundamental Context (June 17):
Bullish Drivers:

Middle East escalation → safe haven bid surging (Iran missile launches, Israeli retaliation, US political chaos).

Fed on pause → real yields are subdued, favoring non-yielding assets like gold.

Convexity & bond volatility rising → investors hedging with hard assets (confirmed via CME sentiment reports).

Risks:

Sudden peace deal or ceasefire.

Unexpected US CPI spike → reawakens rate hike fears.

📅 Key Events to Watch:
Fed speeches (confirmation of dovish tone)

Any ceasefire or major diplomatic development

Oil movement (energy risk spillovers)

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交易進行

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註釋

Average Position Closed +195 Pips.

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註釋

Bought GOLD again from 3378.

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註釋

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手動結束交易

195+ Pips Closed.