REBOOT 3.21 IMMEDIATE FRACTAL (CONFIRM/DENY IN 18 HOURS)

已更新

This is a true fractal:

All the conditions are there except for hidden volume in POVI. I will know more in the morning. If the hidden volume shows up in POVI, I'll start REBOOT 4 immediately

It would be nice if there is an event driven reason for it, bc NFP is Friday. But this fractal says the move starts 9 AM tomorrow.

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UPDATE: TUESDAY 5:57

FIRST, FUNDAMENTALS.

The timing is a bit off. If you ratio it, the bottom before the spike could be anywhere from Wed morning to Thursday morning. Bc of 1.28 ratio, the last top to the the last bottom in 2019 was 13 days, that makes this time 16.6 days? Since today is day 14, that means either Wednesday or Thursday would make sense. Go here for economic calendar of this week:

marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

Wednesday morning is ADP report that foreshadows NFP on Friday. ISM and Markit services PMI also on Wed. While Thursday is initial claims and NEXT Wednesday is CPI and FOMC. A full pack schedule can make this move happen for sure.

I'm not an economist, I'm just verifying that there's enough events in place for such a move.

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Here is VOLUME comparison. Everything about it says we are MUCH STRONGER this time. This is 2 hour bars, let me zoom in some more afterwards.

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6:26 PM

HERE IS THE ZOOM IN TO 30 MIN BARS:

AND YES, THE COUNT MUST BE HIGHER, BECAUSE THERE ARE MORE TOTAL VOLUME INVOLVED. FOR EXAMPLE +32 OUT OF 100 TOTAL IS THE SAME AS +320 OUT OF 1000 TOTAL. BC THERE'S MORE INTEREST/TRADING/VOLUME INVOLVE, THE POVI MUST SHOW A STRONGER MOVE BASE ON NOMINAL COUNT, BUT THE SHAPE/COLORS OF POVI IS AS, MAYBE MORE IMPORTANT DRIVER OF PRICE.

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6:30 PM CT.

So there's a lot in common, but I need POVI lines to get above that 0 h line (dash line). If the move is anticipated by the market, the volume must show it.

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6:40 PM

FUTURES SHOWING DIFERRENT LOOK THAN SPOT. STRONGER ALL AROUND.

Notice even the simliar gap in price a few days before. BUT AGAIN, I need to see those blues get over the reds as price falls.

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7 PM

HERE'S GLD: IT'S CLICKING TOO. AGAIN, NEED THAT LAST ARROW.

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OH YEAH. Please like/follow for support. It's what I do it for.

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HERE IS GDXJ GETTING THE SAME EXACTLOOK.

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In that last chart, I have them switched, 2020 first and 2019 second.

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NOW COMES THE PROBLEM CHILD: GDX
IT IS UNDENIABLY WEAKER THIS TIME AROUND. SO MAYBE STAY AWAY FROM IT.

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UPDATE 7:47 PM CT

STARTING TO SEE THE DIVERGENCE IN 10 MIN BARS: PRICE DOWN POVI UP.

IMPORTANT**

SOMETIME BEFORE MORNING I WILL POST ALL 8 LOOKS BY 3RS. YOU WILL BE ABLE TO SEE ALL 8 MOST POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FROM XAUUSD.

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UPDATE: 11:06 PM THE NEXT 8 CHARTS ARE THE 8 DIFFERENT LOOKS YOU CAN GET FROM 360 REGRESSION STRATEGY.

1 OF 8

2 OF 8

3 OF 8

4 OF 8

6 OF 8

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HOLD ON... 6 WAS NOT 6, THAT WAS 7 OF 8.

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AND HERE IS:

5 OF 8

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THE CORRECT 6 OF 8

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8 OF 8

IT'S HARD TO SAY WHAT HAPPENS HERE:

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12:03 AM WED.

So by price alone. 5-2-1 bulish-bearish-neutral. The POVI then would give you more information to discount more things.

In summary, it looks like - to me - that the run up will be BEFORE FOMC, which would make FOMC a sell the news situation. This is all theoretical, so take it with a jar of salt.

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UPDATE 12:14 AM WED

UPDATE 45 MIN BARS XAUUSD AND GC1!

NOT SEEING THAT VOLUME... WHICH FAVORS A STRONG MOVE DOWN TOMORROW.
THE OTHER SITUATION IS WHERE IT IT TAKES THE WHOLE DAY TOMORROW TO MAKE THE MOVE DOWN.

AS OF RIGHT NOW, STILL VERY BEARISH.

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HERE'S THE CHART:

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WHAT MAKES IT ALSO VERY BEARISH IS THIS:

GC1! WAS MAY CONTRACT UNTIL MAY 26? ISH, WHEN THE ROLLER MADE IT JUNE CONTRACT. JUNE CONTRACT HAS HELD ABOVE SPOT 7.50 TO 60.00 HIGHER FOR WHILE UNTIL NOW. RIGHT NOW IT'S LIKE 3.50. THAT SPELLS TROUBLE GOLD TOMORROW.

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7:14 AM. PIVO SAYS NOT YET.

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8:24 AM PIVO SAYS NOT YET.

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8:33 COVERED MY SHORTS FROM LAST WEEK.

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UPDATE: 8:42 AM

JUST TO POINT OUT: I'VE NAILED EVERY SINGLE TRADE IVE RECCOMENDED SINCE 5/22. ESPECIALLY IN REBOOT 3: NAILED GOLD, SILVER, GDX, GDXJ (DIDNT GET THE TOP BUT A WIN ANY WAY), AND ES TOO, WHICH IS 3100+ THIS MORNING.

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9:10 AM UPDATE... NO SIGN OF BOTTOM YET.

BUT 1694 IS WHERE U WILL ENTER 1ST BATCH DESPITE NO VILUME CONFIRMATION.

SUMPLY BC I EXPECT IT TO GET DEFENDED ON THE 1ST TRY.

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UPDATE 9:15, IN LONG FOR 1ST BATCH 1695.

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UPDATE: 9:17 PM THE FLOOR FOR THIS TRADE TO GET REJECTED IS 1682-ISH.

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COMMENT: The reason I only write about gold was a decision I made 6 years ago. Either GC or ES. I chose gold because it had more independence, which my view made it more securee v. the SP 500 which has been manipulated since 2008. Im not saying I disagree with it, Im just saying that even though I expect ES to hit 3150, I can't ignore all fundamentals and live with money printing without consequence.

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Something about a guaranteed market feels wrong bc no one has the power to deliver on thay guarantee forever, in with the faith and credit of U.S. government.

Otherwise I chose 1 because theres just no time to follow everything. I didnt want to be a jack of anything, I wanted to be an expert at something.

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If you noticed, I only posted 1 chart each for silver and ES, 2 each for GDX and GDXJ. Probably could deliver better results if I tracked them more. But theres just no time with three kids and a day job.

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UPDATE: 1ST SIGN OF LIFE.

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Thats whay you want to see, price falling but PIVO SPIKING. Confirmation is to see the black line break 0 on 135 min chart, or blue set for 45 min chart, or red set on 15 min chart, or the whole dark gray set in the 5 min chart. They represent the same thing (despite the math not perfect bc of limited computing power). The reason is that 3X basis I talked about in previous ideas.

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Here is the zoom in on 5 min chart to see the sets I'm talking about.

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The colors for PIVO must match the colors for LRC's in PIRL at top.

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Bc the periods for are same.

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Bc the periods to calculate the lines are the same.

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UPDATE 10:05.

TRADE NOT CONFIRMED. BEARS TAKING OVER POVI. Its such a sweet set up to fail, but Ive seenA MUCH BETTER fractal setup fail. Anyway, I hedged my 3 week calls with puts. In this area, there is no trade right now.

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NOT REALLY DENIED EITHER. I hedged bc 1694 didnt hold. But this fractal can work as low as 1682, maybe even 1675.

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UPDATE 10:48, IT'S GONNA BE WATCHING PAINT TRY FOR TODAY BC OF THIS:

SO THIS IS ALL POVI, ON 5-15-45-135 min bars

we want the last one on the right (135 min) to look like the one on the left (5 min)

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LAST UPDATE TODAY UNLESS PIVO DOES SOMETHING:

1. Yes I saw it jumped 11 pts.
2. Why I am not excited?
3. Because POVI (Pham Infinite Volume Oscillator) says that:
a) price is rising bc of absence of sellers
b) as opposed to presence of buyers
c) so the move can get retested and fail
4. So why you should batch in instead of all in at once
5. If you have a hard time doing that, then either you don't have enough time to trade well, or psychologically you have FOMO
6. It's funny but I feel the same about trading as I do about women
7. All you have to do is wait, sometimes a long time

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UPDATE: TRADE ALMOST CONFIRMED, BUT NOT BY POVI.

This is something I'm developing on Investing.com: it's a chart, cut/paste it.

invst.ly/r089-

This method, is very reliable (back tested to 2005). Ok so:

1. The low is going to be around 1683.
2. But it's not going to be today or tomorrow.
3. It's going to be over night.
4. This is saying get in sometime today because the open tomorrow,
will be +10 pts of today's high.
5. I going to remove the hedge this afternoon and add second of four batches.
6. So 50 today, maybe 50 tomorrow.
7. Trade with your risk tolerance
8. If I see POVI move then I would get all in today.
9. If that happens I will post an update saying so.

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UPDATE: HERE IS THE PLAN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK:

REBOOT 3.22 (FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH JUNE 5TH)

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COMMENT: ALL UPDATES WILL STILL CONTINUE HERE, IN REBOOT 3.21.

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12:48 PM WEDNESDAY, LAST UPDATE TIL TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.

It should comedown a bit this afternoon. If you want to batch in, not a terrible idea. Wait til tomorrow for last confirmation, good idea, too. But I did say a bit earlier that I've used a different method to confirm the move, this one without on PIVO. Over reliance on PIVO not always good bc IT CAN GO OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF PRICE on some time frames. See you, space cowboys...

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UPDATE: 3:07 PM

Well it looks like I've violated house rules for trying to promote my work. I've been using shadowy methods to get people to notice. So real question: how should I do it? Continue posting and hope to get notice? That seems frustrating.

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UPDATE: 8:26 AM

SO HERE IS GC:

Break out volume confirmed. Also in XAUUSD:

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>> BUT THAT VOLUME IN SPOT SAYS THAT THE BOUNCE SHOULD GET PUSHED DOWN 2 MORE TIMES IN SPOT BEFORE CONTINUING UP.

IT DOES NOT SAY THAT IN FUTURES. I HAVE SAID FOR 10 DAYS THAT FUTURES ARE DRIVING PRICES NOT SPOT.

SO STICK WITH IT. THICK AND THIN TIL 1790.

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8:45 AM.

OBVIOUSLY BUY ANY PULLBACK.

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8:57 SM

THIS DROP IS A GIFT, GET IN NOW!!

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UPDATE: 2:29 PM THURSDAY

THIS IDEA IS CLOSED. PLEASE FOLLOW REBOOT PART 4: GOLD CRASH ALL THE WAY UP, FOR REAL! CLICK ON THIS CHART: