XAUUSD

What other factors, besides the Ukraine ceasefire, could limit or accelerate the decline in gold prices?
Current price: 2936$
(23 ,February ,2025)

If a real ceasefire in Ukraine happens, gold (XAU/USD) will likely decline. Based on historical trends and expert analysis, here’s a rough estimate of how much gold could drop:

Potential Drop Levels for Gold (XAU/USD)
•Mild drop (Short-term pullback) → $2,850 – $2,900
•If the ceasefire is announced but market confidence remains uncertain, gold may only see a small decline.
•Moderate drop (Ceasefire seen as real and stable) → $2,750 – $2,800
•A stronger ceasefire agreement, with international backing, could push gold down further.
•This would be a 4-6% decline from current levels.
•Major drop (Peace deal confirmed, global risk stabilizes) → $2,600 – $2,700
•If the ceasefire turns into a full peace agreement, gold could drop by 8-12%, returning to mid-2023 levels.
•Extreme drop (Ceasefire + Strong U.S. Economy + Fed Hawkishness) → $2,400 – $2,500
•If the ceasefire is combined with strong U.S. economic data (lower inflation, strong job reports), gold could drop 15-18% from its current highs.

What Will Influence the Drop?
1.Strength of the Ceasefire – If it’s fragile or temporary, gold may not fall much.
2.Market Sentiment – If traders believe risks remain, gold will stay above $2,800.
3.U.S. Dollar & Bond Yields – If a ceasefire strengthens the dollar and Treasury yields rise, gold will drop further.
4.Central Bank Demand – If central banks (China, India, Russia) keep buying gold, it may not fall too much.

Conclusion
•Short-term drop: $2,850 – $2,900
•Stable ceasefire drop: $2,750 – $2,800
•Full peace agreement drop: $2,600 – $2,700
•Extreme case (peace + strong U.S. economy): $2,400 – $2,500

#Ukraine #russia #gold #ceasefire