Gold, the focus is still on the European market
已更新
Today being Friday, let's analyze the gold market in a simple manner.
Regarding gold, yesterday we saw a bottoming and rebounding movement, resulting in a daily bullish close. In terms of the magnitude of the recent decline, the drop below $1927 coincided with the previous downward move.
However, there is one difference: this round of decline went through a second suppression before breaking the range.
After breaking the range, there are two possibilities:
Some believe that breaking the range indicates weakness and a continuation of the downward trend.
Others, including us, are concerned that the trend might not be weak but rather undergo a bottoming and rebounding phase, commonly referred to as "washout." This phase typically involves clearing out sellers and consolidating the market's chips.
While the daily chart showed a series of consecutive declines, the magnitude of the price retracement was not significant. Moreover, after the range was broken, there was not much follow-through, especially when considering the intraday perspective.
The overall intraday price action clearly shows that each decline is followed by a strong rebound, but these rebounds lack sustainability. Therefore, the probability of a range-bound market is relatively high.
However, last night the range-bound pattern to the downside was broken. On the one hand, there was concern that the U.S. market might see a bottoming and rebounding movement. But given the extremely weak downside during the intraday session and the fact that it was the second time breaking the bottom, it is more likely that the U.S. market's rebound would be followed by another decline. Yesterday's price action was unusually strong, as we have noticed recently that whether it is a decline or an advance, there is no continuity.
Yesterday, gold reached the "Golden Ratio" level of 618 without retracing (falling), and instead approached the opening price of the previous day. It is worth noting that when it approached the initial decline level, there was no significant pullback; instead, the market closed in a sideways manner both in the U.S. and Asian sessions.
Today being Friday, it is common for gold to experience a habitual decline (known as "Black Friday"). In today's market, we need to pay attention to the rhythm of the daily chart because in a weak market, a bullish candlestick often becomes a single candle, followed by a bearish reversal. The low point is typically identified by consecutive bullish candles and a significant upward movement. Therefore, today is a crucial point during the European session because a single bullish candlestick in the European session is unlikely to break higher. This could lead the U.S. market to experience a second upward movement followed by a decline.
However, regardless of the scenario, we need to be aware that whether the U.S. market advances and then declines or continues to rise, it will have an upward movement at some point.
The tricky part is the intensity of the retracement. If we buy during the European session, we must look for a breakout.
But it is currently unreasonable to take a bearish view.
Important: We should only consider selling when the U.S. market faces resistance or experiences a second upward movement that is then suppressed by previous resistance.
In terms of operations, we can focus on two points:
The key is to observe the European market. If it resists the decline or the price remains above $1960, the U.S. market should experience a high followed by a decline. We can then consider selling at resistance levels.
If the price fails to break above $1964 intraday, caution is needed in the U.S. market. Similarly, if the European market continues the downward movement, we can consider buying around $1955 during the U.S. session when there is a rebound.
The above views, for reference only, investment risk, enter the market need to be cautious; please strict stop loss, control the proportion of funds, rational trading.
Regarding gold, yesterday we saw a bottoming and rebounding movement, resulting in a daily bullish close. In terms of the magnitude of the recent decline, the drop below $1927 coincided with the previous downward move.
However, there is one difference: this round of decline went through a second suppression before breaking the range.
After breaking the range, there are two possibilities:
Some believe that breaking the range indicates weakness and a continuation of the downward trend.
Others, including us, are concerned that the trend might not be weak but rather undergo a bottoming and rebounding phase, commonly referred to as "washout." This phase typically involves clearing out sellers and consolidating the market's chips.
While the daily chart showed a series of consecutive declines, the magnitude of the price retracement was not significant. Moreover, after the range was broken, there was not much follow-through, especially when considering the intraday perspective.
The overall intraday price action clearly shows that each decline is followed by a strong rebound, but these rebounds lack sustainability. Therefore, the probability of a range-bound market is relatively high.
However, last night the range-bound pattern to the downside was broken. On the one hand, there was concern that the U.S. market might see a bottoming and rebounding movement. But given the extremely weak downside during the intraday session and the fact that it was the second time breaking the bottom, it is more likely that the U.S. market's rebound would be followed by another decline. Yesterday's price action was unusually strong, as we have noticed recently that whether it is a decline or an advance, there is no continuity.
Yesterday, gold reached the "Golden Ratio" level of 618 without retracing (falling), and instead approached the opening price of the previous day. It is worth noting that when it approached the initial decline level, there was no significant pullback; instead, the market closed in a sideways manner both in the U.S. and Asian sessions.
Today being Friday, it is common for gold to experience a habitual decline (known as "Black Friday"). In today's market, we need to pay attention to the rhythm of the daily chart because in a weak market, a bullish candlestick often becomes a single candle, followed by a bearish reversal. The low point is typically identified by consecutive bullish candles and a significant upward movement. Therefore, today is a crucial point during the European session because a single bullish candlestick in the European session is unlikely to break higher. This could lead the U.S. market to experience a second upward movement followed by a decline.
However, regardless of the scenario, we need to be aware that whether the U.S. market advances and then declines or continues to rise, it will have an upward movement at some point.
The tricky part is the intensity of the retracement. If we buy during the European session, we must look for a breakout.
But it is currently unreasonable to take a bearish view.
Important: We should only consider selling when the U.S. market faces resistance or experiences a second upward movement that is then suppressed by previous resistance.
In terms of operations, we can focus on two points:
The key is to observe the European market. If it resists the decline or the price remains above $1960, the U.S. market should experience a high followed by a decline. We can then consider selling at resistance levels.
If the price fails to break above $1964 intraday, caution is needed in the U.S. market. Similarly, if the European market continues the downward movement, we can consider buying around $1955 during the U.S. session when there is a rebound.
The above views, for reference only, investment risk, enter the market need to be cautious; please strict stop loss, control the proportion of funds, rational trading.
交易進行
Daily gold prices showed a single bullish candlestick, with hourly prices also displaying consecutive bullish candles. The market broke through the previous resistance level at 1966 in a slow upward movement. If this trend continues today, caution is advised. In the event of a decline in gold prices in the US market, it would be advisable to consider a buy position if the support level at 1958 remains unbroken. For short-term trading, a rebound can be anticipated between the range of 1958-1954, with a preference for entering at lower price levels. Resistance levels to monitor on the upside are at 1974-1980. However, if gold prices in the US market break below the support level at 1954, further downside movement should be expected, with focus shifting to the next support level at 1945.交易結束：目標達成
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The U.S. market is closed tomorrow. But still new strategies will be given.交易進行
The U.S. market is closed tomorrow. But still new strategies will be given.
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