Gold breaks through strongly and is bullish

6月12日

Gold market analysis and outlook
Fundamental driving factors
Inflation data and Fed policy
The US CPI data in May was lower than expected, reinforcing the market's expectations for the Fed's September rate cut. The US dollar index was under pressure (falling to 98.42, close to a six-week low), boosting the attractiveness of gold.
The expectation of a downward trend in real interest rates and the decline in US Treasury yields further supported gold prices.

Geopolitical risks

Tensions in the Middle East have intensified, and safe-haven demand has surged. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has received buying support.

Influence of related markets

The weak US dollar (-0.4%) reduces the cost of holding gold, and the volatility of US stocks and uncertainty in trade policies have prompted funds to flow to safe-haven assets.

Key technical signals
Daily level

The price broke through the previous shock range, the short-term moving average was in a bullish arrangement, and the MACD momentum turned strong. Pay attention to the 3390-3400 pressure zone.

Yesterday's big positive line closed to confirm short-term strength, and 3385-3400 is the next key resistance zone.

Short-term (1H)

After hitting 3356 in the early trading, it broke through the high again, showing that the bulls are dominant, and 3355-3360 constitutes the first support of the day.
If the price does not break 3355 after the retracement, the bullish structure will be maintained, and the upper target is 3377-3385; after the breakthrough, it can look to the 3400 mark.

Trading strategy suggestions
Bull opportunities

Entry area: 3345-3350 support range.

Target: 3377 (Asian high) → 3385 → 3400.

Stop loss: below 3340 (to prevent false breakthroughs).

Short risk warning

If the gold price rises to the 3385-3400 area and is under pressure, you can try shorting with a light position, stop loss 3405, and target 3360.

Key risk control position

Support: 3345 (strength and weakness dividing line) → 3338 (daily bull defense line).

Resistance: 3377 (European session high) → 3387 (previous high concentration area).

Conclusion: Gold maintains a relatively strong pattern under the resonance of fundamentals and technical aspects. The operation is mainly to go long on pullbacks, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of profit-taking at high levels.

6月12日

交易進行

After gold failed to break through the 3400 line, the price began to show a weak trend.
The current upper resistance is 3400. If this position is broken, the gold price will return to the 4-hour upward channel, and the subsequent impact will be higher, and it is even expected to break through the historical high of 3500.
The short-term trend falls back to the lower support level in the 3370-3375 area, which is also the break node on the hourly line.
Considering the current strong support for gold prices and the continued downturn of the US dollar index. Let the risk aversion of gold prices continue to escalate. In the case that the hourly channel is not broken, the operation strategy is still based on callback low long.

Gold short orders can try short-term shorting near 3390-3395. If the price breaks 3405, a strict stop loss is required. The downside target is 3375-3370.
The long position layout can fall back to 3370-3375, fall to 3360-3365 to cover the position, and break the hourly middle track 3356 as the stop loss basis. The upside target is 3400, breaking through 3415 and 3440.

6月13日

交易結束：目標達成

After gold hit 3400 yesterday and then fell back, the price fell into the adjustment phase, and fell to 3377 at the lowest. The consolidation structure is above the hourly upward channel. As a result, supported by the hourly channel and stimulated by the fundamentals, the gold price once hit 3444 in the Asian session.

The overall trend is also consistent with the low-multiple thinking strategy given earlier. This trend also perfectly took nearly 50 points of space.

In the follow-up strategy, we need to pay attention to the support of 3400 below gold, which is also the bottom support of the 4-hour line. If this forms an effective support, the upper side is expected to test the 3475-3500 area.