BTC - Bullish Gartley HTF
已更新
Bitcoin is currently moving within a potential Bullish Gartley on High Time Frames. I have been watching the price action on all time frames and one can notice that the corrective waves can be seen as harmonic patterns. The correctives that have been seen in this bull market have been Triangles, Flats, and Running Flats.
For those of you that are familiar with some of my charts you will know that I have been following a Trend-Based Fibonacci Time Extension going back to last years bear market. This sequence is what I based my BTC Bull Run December 10, 2018 idea on (linked). Taking a look at that chart we can see that the direction of price reverses not in the overall direction of the prior sequence but, rather, it reverses from the direction from which it hits the new time sequence.
Here you can see that price reversed on April 2, 2018, continuing to rise until April 30, 2018 (the next date in the sequence) and continued the bear market downtrend from there. The same occurred from the price reversal on June 25, 2018 until the next date of the sequence on July 23, 2018, after which the bear market trend continued.
As we all know, at the close of this past Weekly candle Bitcoin find itself in a continuing correction, leading up to the next date in the sequence, July 22, 2019.
July 22, 2019, coincides with launch of Beaxy as well as Bakkt testing. I originally tweeted out (link in comments) that this would be a catalyst coinciding with the sequence date, thinking that we would enter a new corrective bear market until the next sequence date (February 28, 2022). At the time it looked like Bitcoin was not slowing down, until hitting resistance before 14k, aligning perfectly with the top of the pitchfork. With the reversal now in effect I believe, as I am sure most of you already do, that July 22, 2019 will mark a continuation of the Bull Market- in full effect. Admittedly, I expected a reversal much sooner and lower than here but that is inconsequential at this point. Moving on...
Going back to a tweet from a day ago (in comments) I showed that BTC had lost the 60-day (green/yellow dotted line) and 175-Day HMA (orange/yellow solid line)...in the chart below you can see the following price action from the previous time it did that during this bull cycle...
And how I think it can play into this Bullish Gartley...
Now, for any nitpickers out there that want to say this is not a Bullish Gartley because the 1.7 B-D ratio is set at 1.71 I have a hefty bag of GGFY on the cheap for you. I spent hours trying to get it perfect and I suppose only a computer algorithm or nature could only get it better- especially since it all aligns with the center line of the pitchfork on the chart (which has been spot on) that I first set months ago, price support of 8823.5 (XBT), as well as intersecting and ending at the date of July 22, 2019...
How this could play out on a Wave analysis perspective...
This is definitive and we will need to see how it plays out here, but a closer look on the 1 Hour I like this current count with 10,900 now acting as resistance after having bounced off it so many times...
Currently, a Hammer is closing on the 1 Hour...
On the 4 Hour...
So lets watch this from here. I will be updating this idea until its completion or invalidation.
Thank you for reading. Trade safe friends.
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For those of you that are familiar with some of my charts you will know that I have been following a Trend-Based Fibonacci Time Extension going back to last years bear market. This sequence is what I based my BTC Bull Run December 10, 2018 idea on (linked). Taking a look at that chart we can see that the direction of price reverses not in the overall direction of the prior sequence but, rather, it reverses from the direction from which it hits the new time sequence.
Here you can see that price reversed on April 2, 2018, continuing to rise until April 30, 2018 (the next date in the sequence) and continued the bear market downtrend from there. The same occurred from the price reversal on June 25, 2018 until the next date of the sequence on July 23, 2018, after which the bear market trend continued.
As we all know, at the close of this past Weekly candle Bitcoin find itself in a continuing correction, leading up to the next date in the sequence, July 22, 2019.
July 22, 2019, coincides with launch of Beaxy as well as Bakkt testing. I originally tweeted out (link in comments) that this would be a catalyst coinciding with the sequence date, thinking that we would enter a new corrective bear market until the next sequence date (February 28, 2022). At the time it looked like Bitcoin was not slowing down, until hitting resistance before 14k, aligning perfectly with the top of the pitchfork. With the reversal now in effect I believe, as I am sure most of you already do, that July 22, 2019 will mark a continuation of the Bull Market- in full effect. Admittedly, I expected a reversal much sooner and lower than here but that is inconsequential at this point. Moving on...
Going back to a tweet from a day ago (in comments) I showed that BTC had lost the 60-day (green/yellow dotted line) and 175-Day HMA (orange/yellow solid line)...in the chart below you can see the following price action from the previous time it did that during this bull cycle...
And how I think it can play into this Bullish Gartley...
Now, for any nitpickers out there that want to say this is not a Bullish Gartley because the 1.7 B-D ratio is set at 1.71 I have a hefty bag of GGFY on the cheap for you. I spent hours trying to get it perfect and I suppose only a computer algorithm or nature could only get it better- especially since it all aligns with the center line of the pitchfork on the chart (which has been spot on) that I first set months ago, price support of 8823.5 (XBT), as well as intersecting and ending at the date of July 22, 2019...
How this could play out on a Wave analysis perspective...
This is definitive and we will need to see how it plays out here, but a closer look on the 1 Hour I like this current count with 10,900 now acting as resistance after having bounced off it so many times...
Currently, a Hammer is closing on the 1 Hour...
On the 4 Hour...
So lets watch this from here. I will be updating this idea until its completion or invalidation.
Thank you for reading. Trade safe friends.
___________________________________
註釋
Fibonacci target projections incoming...註釋
1 Hour Stochastic RSI, RSI, and Godmode flipped after bullish divergences4 Hour showing Diminishing Volume in the downtrend, with Oscillators contracting within oversold areas, Godmode signaling Long
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***5 Charts above here the comment says "This is definitive..." that is a typo, it should read "This is NOT definitive..."as nothing is.註釋
Price picked up the 60-Day on the 1 Hour being tempered down by the 175-Day HMA a bit4 Hour clearly above the 8 and 20-Day with Oscillators crossing Bullish; another sweep near 10k possible before the trend begins
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Price bounced off the lower with Declining Volume註釋
Getting pushed up by the 175 on the Daily, looking to pick up the 8-Day^^^註釋
Price reaching the A-B Gartley line, meeting resistance at 10,900 with declining volume on the rise within an Ascending WedgeI anticipate a breakdown to the X-B line once again to the 9950 area before breaking up toward 12k
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Impressive break above the trend line out of the Wedge. This could be an early break out, would want to see it hold 10900註釋
BTC Bullish Gartley: still very much in play, especially in that 11,647 has acted as resistance here; 10,900 is key support. Price can make its way there in any number of ways but bottom line for this is be at the price of @ 8850 week of July 22, 2019 for it to be completed註釋
I was not bullish at 14k when BTC hit the top of my Pitchfork, when it lost the 60 (dotted line) & 175 (orange) Day HMA's on the 4 hour on June 30I am not bullish on
BTC while it remains below the 175 Day HMA currently on the 4 Hour, nor while below the 60 Day on the Daily.nor while below the 60 Day on the Daily.
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After losing both the 60- & 175-Day HMA's on the 4 Hour today I will say that this Bullish Gartley is still 100% in playtradingview.com/chart/YpqyB57h/
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Price now below the 60- and 175-Day HMA's on the $ Hour finding 11,647 as resistance...On the Daily price is being held up bu the 175-Day HMA and pushed down by the 8/20/60-Day HMA's
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Back within the pattern boundaries and looking quite bearish on HTF's...註釋
Right on track.註釋
Bearish 1 Hour close with Bearish Divergence... Daily closes below 10,900, below 60-Day HMA flipping bearish, below 20- & 175-Day HMA's...
Declining 4 Hour Volume with a Doji close and within Bullish Gartley C-D line at 10,900. Hold 10,400 or continuation down with lower high...
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Right on target...註釋
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10900 once again acting as resistance, still expecting to see upper a low retest註釋
I originally posted that I believed this chart would lead to continued BTC Bull Market...at this time I no longer believe so. While I do expect the price to move to 12000-13000 during the week of 7/22/19, I do not believe BTC will continue in a Bull Market. I will be making a new idea shortly with my analysis of this.註釋
Not done yet...註釋
Below the 8/20/60/175 DHMA's on t he 1 Hour...註釋
4 Hour indicators looking very bearish...Today could be brutal if it continues...
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Placement of harmonics were off and the 11k high was the move, but the downtrend continues. My BTC BLX post made after this one continues with my Bitcoin outlook. Closing this thread. Thank you.
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