What i think will happen over the next 6 months

2020年3月29日

TECHNICALS:

Bullish:

200 wsma holding


rsi stupidly oversold *though it's not an indication of a bottom

From chart history, the price doesn't like to stay below lower bb'


Lower trendline penetration


Wyckoff


I guess this is bullish. lol


Bearish:

this (overleveraged corona panic)


Hyperwave?


Wedge?





SENTIMENTAL

Finex shorts +200% and longs - 40% near (in the bottom) late shorts loading and longs getting liquidated - bullish reversal. (though this is more short term oriented)


OKEx net longs short is near 0.80 - an almost all-time low.
okex.com/markets/futures-data/btc-usd-weekly

binance short account - 62%, long - 38%

I have never seen F&G staying so low for so long.
alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

After the big dump, more people got rekt trying to 100x long than on 30% down move


People try to short every time they see a down move


A lot of gurus got liquidated from twitter. ( unfortunately not all of them)

After the big dump, i thought btc is a scam. Usually, i am wrong.

Funding on fire


COT. Leveraged funds went short and quit, professional traders went long and also quit. - bullish
tradingster.com/cot/futures/fin/133741

Overall, sentiment is extremely negative.

ATH of XBT Volatility (fear)

FUNDAMENTALS

Bullish:

Whales keep growing 1000k+ adresses
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.Min1KCount&mAvg=7&s=1337577556&u=1581292800&zoom=

lowest ever SOPR
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.Sopr&mAvg=7&s=1357516800&u=1583798400&zoom=

Puell Multiple is green. And after the halving, it will dump more


Unrealized profit/loss at its lows
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.NetUnrealizedProfitLoss

Reserve/Risk is also supper low
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.ReserveRisk&mAvg=7

NVT is also looking good. Maybe not that good for 2 years ahead


Difficulty ribbon and market multiple


FED printer go brrrr.

Euro printer go brrrr.

Tether printer go brr (almost 2 billions in a few weeks)
skew.com/dashboard/stable-coins

USDC printer go brrr.

skew.com/dashboard/macro
Q2 alway had higher returns.

India unbanning crypto

Plenty of yearly bases in alts.


Bearish:

- Too many miners. ( more hash = more competition). We may witness a real mining disaster after halving.


- South Korea may do more regulations.

- Transactions do not grow fast.

- People still do not trust it.

2020年3月31日

註釋

Tether chart. Maybe people just want to short now. Guess what will happen with em

2020年4月2日

註釋

2020年4月2日

註釋

It is not supper precise but you may understand a level of sentiment while approaching to decision levels

2020年4月2日

註釋

2020年4月2日

註釋

I would say this - when it stays negative/positive over the period of time first poll change will indicate on reversal. The same logic as with support/resistance