BTCUSD Analysis: End of Tether Era

已更新

Dear friends,
Another week is over, and so, it is time to see the Bitcoin performance and revise the analysis for BTCUSD pair for the next two weeks.
But, first, let’s compare the last Bitcoin forecast with BTCUSD current situation

(BTCUSD forecast, dated 08.10.2018)

(BTCUSD, price chart as of 15.10.2018)
As it is clear from BTC price chart above, BTCUSD price movements turned out to be much greater than I had expected; however, I identified the general fractal model correctly.
Frankly speaking, at some point, I became concerned with the market weakness and even published an additional analysis for BTCUSD pair; you can read it in post Bitcoin fundamental analysis.
I was defending bulls’ position, suggesting that all the talks about direct link between the crypto market and the stock exchanges is nothing but an artificial pretext and a try to impose on traders a behaviour pattern for future manipulations.
In the end, those, who had believed in the negative wave forecasts and simply alarmists, are not happy with the bitcoin surge, recently occurred.
And the surge has been really high.

Bitcoin fundamental analysis
Recently, there has been a strong informational attack on Tether that has resulted in its dramatic crash and the price rise of the other stable coins and the most liquid cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. To find out what’s happened, I suggest analyzing the chronology of events. In fact, this, manipulation was prepared in a few stages. Everything began as early as on October, 2018, when there appeared information from an unknown source about Noble Bank problems, which provides banking services for Tether LTD accounts.
Starting from October 7, Theater price began swinging below 0.999 USD, gradually going lower; it suggests increasing pressure on Tether from sellers. On October 11, there was published the news that Bitfinex suspended fiat deposits. On the same date, a number of users complained about problems with the fiat withdrawals from Bitfinex. There followed no clear explanation by Bitfinex. The administration just didn’t provide any official comments, fueling the situation even more.
On 15.10.2018, early in the morning, the Korean exchange KuCoin announced USDT deposits and withdrawals to be temporary closed.

As it is clear, the news bit was responded rather late. In fact, the news bit itself suggests nothing shocking. Tether regularly carries out technical maintenance on its servers and temporary halts the procession center work. However, the major panic started when there appeared numerous FUD messages about Tether scam from allegedly Binance.
Amid this message, a real panic started. It all came together in the way, suggesting that. Maintenance work on Tether processing, closed registration on its official website.

Blocked fiat deposits on Bitfinex. All of this is a chain of events, corresponding to each other and resulting from Tether processing problems. The FUD about scam in that context has just taken off the lid from the boiling kettle and there was an explosion.
Next, KuCoin announced the resumed work with Tether; Binance published official reference to the recent Tether ranking dated 29.08.2018, that has been followed by the exchange since then; and Bitfinex officially promised the fiat deposit system to be available by 16.10.2018; and so, the market calmed down soon. Everybody understood that it had been just another manipulation.

BTCUSD technical analysis
According to technical analysis, as it is clear from the weekly BTCUSD price chart, the ticker has exited the triangle and went upwards. The bitcoin price has broken out the last key level at 1429 USD, sending a clear signal for bulls. Certainly, the candlestick hasn’t yet closed and it is too early to sum up the results, but there is a clear spike that can’t be denied.
But, there is fly in the ointment. The matter is that this spike is missing on the other exchange, covering about 30% of all bitcoin trading
It is BitMex.

According to this chart, there hasn’t been any bitcoin rate surge in fact. There are no spikes in the chart, the triangle hasn’t been broken out, and neither have been the key levels. Eventually, technical analysis suggests completely opposite results, which works to the advantage of neither Tether nor Bitfinex.

Analysis of this bitcoin price chart suggests a completely different situation. Here, Bitcoin is still trading down. The local highs haven’t been broken through; the price has just broken through the extreme of last weekly candlestick, and it hasn’t gone beyond the triangle borders at all.

The long higher shadow of the last candlestick provides strong support for bulls. RSI stochastic paints a rounding upwards, but MACD is still in the red zone. All of this still suggests the market uncertainty and no trend.

The Tic-Tac-Toe chart shows that the consolidation continues and a triangle is emerging inside the range.

According to the hourly BTCUSD timeframe in the Kagi chart, the key support/resistance levels have remained the same. From above, it the channel border between 6600 and 6800. From below, there support zone is between 6030 and 6152.
Updated BTCUSD price forecast and Bitcoin trading scenario
The recent event has become the historical one, marking the end if Tether era. The discrepancy between Bitfinex and other crypto platforms suggests the Tether dominance in Bitcoin monetary control is coming to an end. On the one hand, such a crisis is a sign of the cryptocurrency market future transformation entering a new level of development; on the other hand, it the start of great turmoil and uncertainty in the market.
The only clear thing us that everybody will try to withdraw their funds from Tether, at lest partially, which finally will make the cryptocurrency market safer and more stable. When the issue of USDT scam is clarifies, the crypto market will be relieved of strong pressure that has been worrying many investors; and there will be the room for growth; so, I still suggest that Bitcoin will exit the triangle upwards on the global scope.

The escape from Tether will support the price rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum, as the major top altcoins. The Bitcoin dominance will be increasing, and the cryptocurrency market itself will be inevitably declining in volume, resulting in continuous depression. However, it doesn’t mean that there will be no opportunity to make money on it. Strong volatility is the best friend of channel strategies.
Anyway, in this environment, Bitcoin price will hardly surge; at best, it BTCUSD will go on trading in the sideways trend, accumulating the volume inside the channel of 6000 USD – 7000 USD till the end of the year.
That is my BTCUSD trading scenario for the next two weeks. Read my forecasts for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the trader blog. Go on following the Bitcoin price and staying informed on the cryptocurrency market. I wish my Bitcoin price predictions are useful for you!

I wish you good luck and good profits!
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註釋

From today I ask everyone to pay attention to the analytics of other traders. What pairs are we talking about - this is the cue to the dollar or to the tether. From today, these are two parallel realities and the pictures are completely different from the technical side.
Anyone who looks at pairs with tether and makes predictions according to Bitfinex will write about breakouts and reversals, strong bullish expectations. And they are right, but only with respect to the tether, which is no longer equal to usd.

Do not be deceived and do not deceive others. Be extremely careful and cautious in evaluating the rate of Bitcoin.