OrigamiOracle的BITMEX:XBTUSD.P的Bull Flag - H&S Right Shoulder

Bull Flag - H&S Right Shoulder

The recent breakout of the Bullish Pennant fell through support soon after capitulation. This weakens but does not nullify the significance of the upward break, and the bull flag is conserved. The local Gann line (2/1; yellow dashed) should provide longer term support after the recent test of local highs. This could be the end of the H&S and the end of the bear trap, which would mean the beginning of the primary impulse wave of the bubble - The Public Mania.

If the 2/1 Gann line is to raise price through the neckline then we should see an extremely bullish breakout around new year's eve.

註釋

The timing of this bullish reversal aligns with the expiration of CME BTC futures (29/12). Before closing short positions, traders "Bang the Close" - pushing prices down with selling pressure to close at a more profitable level.
This would explain the potential manipulation pattern I've observed during 2018 (chart below). The descending triangle seemed to be constrained and unable to correct completely. I believe that the natural pattern of the correction would have been a symmetrical triangle, but a false floor of support was provided at $5,800 throughout the year. This allowed for the Fall-off-a-cliff drop we saw in November when support was removed. This would explain the price spike before October (Short squeeze), and the increase in selling pressure throughout October (MDR chart: i.gyazo.com/00c3da96ff66e98bfc4a90218bce1f83.png)

Some of the wealthiest BTC wallets also moved their funds for the first time in a long time around the time of the initial drop. This was also around the release date of the liquid side chain, which provides an alternate, priority route for moving funds to and from major exchanges. This all points to manipulation, which isn't bad news for the average trader, as long as they are aware of what the whales are doing, and follow closely in their wake. It now seems that the whales are reversing from bear to bull.

註釋

Price support along 3/1 Gann

註釋

Healthy bull flag on the 6 hour chart

註釋

Bullish DMI with no DI-/DI+ cross (green circle) on hourly chart - indicates continuation.

註釋

343 min bullish SMA interaction (white = 7, orange = 77)
Support found on local fib and Gann Fann. I am still bullish, this could be a long squeeze conducted by those who know a H&S breakout is coming at the end of the year.