Bearish Rejection, How far will it Fall

2018年4月1日

Good evening everyone, Hope everyone is enjoying their holiday weekend.

If you're like me you've probably been wondering is this it or will there be more red. I have been re-evaluating my count and looking at other counts and it looks like we have one more wave down before we can see a substantial move upwards. I have looked at these charts and waves for hours and can not come up with a likely scenario were we don't see price action that gives me any kind of bullish potential at this point. Best case scenario at this point is a WXY pattern which would mean we are only seeing the A wave of the Y completing. If that is the case then we will only see a corrective wave off the bottom of this wave and then start 3 more waves down. With that said there will be serious risk with taking a long position at the bottom of this wave. It appears at this point if you are not shorting this market then it may be best to wait and see how this corrective wave developes. My personal position is a short position from the bounce off the trend line at 7150. I will be targeting a minimum of $6,000. That is under the assumption that we have just seen a 1 wave develop. I will update as this trade plays out.

If you have anything you are seeing that you would like to add please feel free to comment and post charts. I'm always open to see what everyone is thinking.

As always these are my ideas for my trades and not intended as advice for your trading strategies. Prosperous trading to all of you.

2018年4月1日

註釋

I don't know how you all look at it but I have been using LTC as an indicator for BTC movement. You can see LTC has broken it's bear flag to the down side. That upper trend line has been on my chart since LTC was $220 so I feel pretty strong that it's strong resistance.

2018年4月1日

註釋

So far exactly what I expected. I like to line up my Fib extensions and EMA resistance to see where I should expect the market to move. Still find it fascinating that the market aligns itself like that before it drops. Seen it to many times to coincidence. If we see more upside then I'll start questioning whether it's going down.

2018年4月1日

註釋

More confluence. Head and shoulders pattern with a target of 6500 same as the fib ext. Don't need anymore confluence. Fairly obvious at this point that it's going down. Tightening up my stops and going to bed confident that when I wake this trade will be getting close to closing.

2018年4月1日

交易結束：達到停損點

That is why I use trailing stops on my short position. Was just getting ready to post a target of 6340 when it shot off. My stop was sitting right behind the wave 4 of 5 and I exited my short at 5545. Now lets see if we break that down trend support. I'm saying yes.