BTC Descending wedge

2019年7月28日

Descending wedge working its way to the very end. We had a false breakout with low volume and it met resistance at the 50MA and fell back into the wedge. Keep an eye on this for a healthy high volume breakout above, and a retest of the upper trend line after the breakout. The wedge height is approx $2200, so that gives a rough target if we successfully breakout upwards. Wait to take a position until we have a successful retest of the upper trend line from above.

2019年7月29日

註釋

Successful retest, long initiated.

2019年7月30日

註釋

In hindsight this was not a great entry because we didn't have any volume with the "breakout" which invalidates the concept. If we redrawn the trend lines using a 1D chart we can see that the close on the 29th was right on the very edge of the upper trend line, meaning the 30th candle needs to move up and breakout with volume, or down to stay within the wedge. I wouldn't be surprised to see the next few days with very low volume and the price just slowly drifting down the trend line until the end of month candle closes on the 31st. After that we should see fireworks one way or another. I have a stop loss below $9200 to protect against a big drop. We'll see how this plays out for now.