XJO Dead Cat Bounce or ?

2022年8月15日

Just an observation:

Everytime the Australian consumer confidence index has fallen below 80 into severe pessimism the XJO has corrected atleast 30% from peak to trough.

This has been the case the last 4 times over a 40 year period.

Currently XJO has a had a decent correction but not even close to 30%.

Looks highly probable that we are headed down below 80 in the next few months. Suggesting we could be in a dead cat bounce environment on the XJO.

Also noted the 10 month MA has also dipped under the 3O month MA each time and currently sits well above, which suggests possibly another leg down early next year.

2022年8月16日

註釋

tradingeconomics.com/australia/consumer-confidence

2022年11月2日

註釋

We are now under 80:

Australia's consumer confidence has fallen for the fifth consecutive week, marking a longest span of decline in over two years since August 2020, showed a consumer confidence report released on Tuesday.

The latest report by the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and Roy Morgan market research company said Australia's consumer confidence decreased by 1.5 percent to 79.9 points in the week to Oct. 30, 28.5 points less than a year earlier and 9.9 points less than the 2022 weekly average of 89.8.

The report also revealed that the proportion of survey respondents who think they are financially worse off than a year earlier has risen to 47 percent, the highest since March 2020.

below 80 = severe pessimism. History says the XJO may atleast see 30% from peak to trough