Short XLE

2024年11月21日

Investors are piling back into energy along with other inflation trades. There's a large gap down to $90.50 area. Crude oil, shown here by USO, has also tumbled.

Trade is off if XLE makes a new high or USO/crude oil turns up. Press into a short position if crude breaks below $65.

Could also work as a pair trade for those bullish on oil, going long USO.

2024年11月21日

註釋

Oil and XLE up again today on reports of a new missile hitting Ukraine. The gap between XLE and USO has widened further though, and XLE is hitting overbought on daily RSI.

2024年11月25日

交易進行

Looks like the trade is a go as of today. I am in weekly puts. XLE has about 5% to close the gap, the performance gap with USO is around 8 percent. If CL breaks $65, could turn into a larger correction of 10% or more.

Another development: USDRUB looks like it wants to breakout and run towards 120. Most likely catalyst would be the bottom dropping out on oil.