XLMBTC - Change In Momentum

2021年5月13日

There are several indicators that point to a change in momentum between the XLMBTC pair. 1200 sats is a big level for XLM and has proven itself as the basis for both beginning and ending upward movement in the past.

The Upside
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Currently the pair has formed a weird Inverse H&S pattern along the support-turned-resistance from its March 2017 lowpoint vs Bitcoin. I like the Inverse H&S pattern because it shows weakening momentum on the bearish side, with a low, a lower low, and then a higher low, and establishes a pretty clear resistance that the bulls keep knocking on (outlined by the blue box). If the bulls keep knocking, someone will let them in, eventually.

The Gaussian Channel is also flashing green on the weekly, another indicator that this thing could be just beginning to start its ascent. The MACD is heading into positive territory with plenty of room for movement towards the upside.

The Downside
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BTCUSD is in rough shape currently, which generally sends waves throughout the space. The 1200 sats area offers just as much of a resistance zone as it does a launchpad. Just because it has held for a couple of days (much longer than the previous attempts to turn it to support), doesn't mean it will in the near or medium-term. After this area, there are a number of resistance levels coming up which could be good times to take risk off the table.

What I Expect
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If 1200 holds, I expect this area and trendline to turn into support, offering solid low-risk buying opportunities, however I'm not sure we are there yet. XLM is getting comfortable at these levels, it may have taken its shoes off, but its not exactly opening the fridge and putting its feet up.

I kind of personally expect a weird double right shoulder to develop, like we see a lot in the crypto space. I think it could drop to test the 200, 100, or 50 EMAs, which are the Red, Blue, and Green lines, respectively., at roughly the 1100, 1000, and 850 sats level. I personally expect that when it breaks the 1200 level it won't be knocking on the door, but blowing a hole in the roof with a rocket launcher.

Targets
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Target for the Inverse H&S could be around the 4000 sats level, the first blue box. The next targets represent a return to old highs in the pair around 4700 , as well as a fib based moon target at 7000 sats.

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What do you expect? What are your targets for XLM? Leave a like, idea, or comment below.

As always, take this advice with a grain of salt and do your own research. This isn't financial advice, I'm not an investment advisor, and I don't know you.