Elliott Wave Analysis on Ripple (XRP/USD)

7月23日

Major Wave Structure

1. Primary Waves
• W-X-Y-XX-Z: The chart begins with a complex corrective structure, which is common in Elliott Wave Theory to describe prolonged corrective phases.
• 1-2-3-4-5: Following the complex correction, an impulsive wave structure is apparent.
2. Subwaves
• Each primary wave consists of smaller-degree waves, identified using numerical (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) and alphabetical (A, B, C) labels.

Detailed Breakdown

Corrective Phase (W-X-Y-XX-Z)

• Wave W: Indicates an initial corrective phase, typically forming a zigzag pattern.
• Wave X: A connecting wave that can take the form of a triangle, flat, or zigzag.
• Wave Y: Another corrective wave similar to wave W.
• Wave XX: Another connecting wave, similar in structure to wave X.
• Wave Z: The final corrective phase in the complex structure.

Impulsive Phase (1-2-3-4-5)

• Wave 1: Initial impulsive wave marking the beginning of a new trend.
• Wave 2: Corrective phase, typically retracing part of wave 1.
• Wave 3: The strongest and usually the longest wave, often extending to 161.8% of wave 1.
• Wave 4: Another corrective wave, usually less severe than wave 2.
• Wave 5: Final wave in the impulsive phase, often displaying divergence with indicators like MACD or RSI.

Fibonacci Levels

• Fibonacci retracement levels are crucial in identifying potential reversal points and are marked on the chart:
• 23.6% Retracement: Around 0.58025, indicating a potential resistance level during a pullback.
• 38.2% Retracement: Near 0.54160, suggesting a significant support level.
• 50% Retracement: Often considered a strong support or resistance level, located around 0.51587.

Future Projections

1. Current Scenario
• The chart indicates that Ripple is currently forming wave (3), which is expected to continue upwards, with potential resistance around 0.65795.
2. Wave (4) Projection
• After completing wave (3), a corrective phase (wave (4)) is likely. This wave could retrace to the 38.2% or 50% Fibonacci levels, around 0.54160 or 0.51587, respectively.
3. Wave (5) Projection
• Following wave (4), the upward trend is expected to resume in wave (5), potentially targeting new highs above the previous peak of wave (3).

Conclusion

• Short-Term: Expect continued upward movement in wave (3), with resistance around 0.65795.
• Medium-Term: A corrective phase (wave (4)) is expected, targeting support around 0.54160 or 0.51587.
• Long-Term: After wave (4), the upward trend should continue in wave (5), potentially reaching higher levels.

Trading Strategy

• Entry: Consider entering long positions near the end of wave (4), using Fibonacci support levels around 0.54160 or 0.51587 as potential entry points.
• Stop-Loss: Place stop-loss orders below the 61.8% retracement level to protect against deeper corrections.
• Targets: Set initial profit targets around the resistance level of wave (3) and adjust positions based on the development of wave (5).