The Big XRP Short

So the SEC has had their attempt to appeal Ripple's win in the lawsuit denied, and XRP still could not even touch HTF resistance at $0.55. As far as I'm concerned, if Ripple can't breakout of this range after another news-based pump like this (and likely the last one we'll for a while I imagine), then the only direction for the coin is down. The fact that the crypto space is so euphoric over a 5% pump from supposedly ultra-bullish news only makes me more bearish; open interest in incredibly high with heavily positive funding rates, meaning that the market is majority long at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a nasty squeeze to the downside to punish late longs.

Note that XRP broke it's rising RSI trendline on the weekly chart and volume for the coin is starting to slump already post-pump.

s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/a/AOPTB7pp.png

XRP is currently in a clean rising wedge that was respected on the hourly chart even with the SEC news. The current target for the pattern is $0.46 (HTF support).

For swing shorts:

SL - $0.56
TP1 - $0.462
TP2 - $0.425
TP3 - $0.364 (runner)

s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/FLVEmp29.png

Either way this will be an interesting one to watch in the coming weeks.

-FM

手動結束交易

XRP has sold off a decent amount since I posted this idea, looks pretty bad on all counts from what I'm looking at. XRP has now flipped the $0.525 supply zone and has plunged lower. Spot volume is pretty much back to baseline, funding is very positive and OI is still relatively high on medium timeframes; low chance for a short squeeze. Took moderate profits from above, will look to re-enter as PA continues to develop.

交易進行

I've reopened my short near $0.525. XRP seems to be getting rejected below $0.53, and appears much weaker than the broader market (at least compared to BTC and the alts I follow).

Going into the weekend we can expect the typical low volatility and slow grind into Sunday. I think this may possibly to be the last push up for Ripple before the 'real' move down and the break down below the rising support trendline of this wedge.

The only real threat to the upside as I see it is that OI is still elevated with funding rates slightly negative at the moment, but otherwise I can't see much evidence that XRP is going to $4 or whatever ridiculous targets bulls are currently posting right now.

I could be wrong but I'm feeling alright about this one for now.

-FM

交易進行

I've been away on holiday so I haven't been able to keep this idea updated so there's a bit to get through:

Firstly, it looks like we got the breakdown of the wedge on monday just as I predicted and the sell off has been quite agressive; Ripple has managed to have 6 red daily candles, failing to even hold $0.50 psychological support. I would say that I'm expecting a bit of relief for XRP over the rest of the week but I've felt like that for last 3 days now. We'll see. Closest key resistance for now is around $0.495.

Funding rates have remained positive for the majority of the time throughout; traders are still bullish on the coin, apparently. OI is still somewhat elevated from what I can tell from VELO so I still want to see a long squeeze downwards with a flush of leverage before considering taking profits on my short position.

You can also look at the XRP/BTC pair to see that we've found a bit of support at 180 but still no serious sign of strength for Ripple.

As far as I see it, the only real risk for XRP bears in the immediate future is from BTC pumping off ETF news, but that appears to be priced in a few hours ago.

Props to everyone who shorted this post-SEC news. Cheers!

-FM

註釋

Well clearly the ETF has *not* been priced in for BTC - nasty (fake) news pump across the market. Regardless, I'm still short and Ripple continues to selloff vs BTC; all the way down to its main rising trendline first established in March. As far as I'm concerned this is certainly make or break for XRP now. If we can't close above $0.50 in the next couple of days then $0.46 is next.

-FM

交易結束：達到停損點

Took a moderate loss on the SEC dropping all charges against XRP leadership; still made good profits overall but got blindsided by the news hitting the market. May look for a short again depending on how XRP reacts off the inefficiency above $0.56 but not in a trade currently. The Current strength of BTC definitely makes me think twice about shorting in the current market.

-FM

FM96