The Lengthy "WXYXZ" Correction of XVG - Breakout or Bust!?
Now that some time has passed, a clearer picture is beginning emerging with XVG. With a solid foundation of Elliot waves, we now have the data to project with higher certainty the price pathway of XVG. Over the past month, XVG has undergone a very long and protracted WXYXZ form correction which was caused by a combination of factors.
XVG Fundamental Sanity Check
For what its worth, the XVG team is still working diligently on their Tor coin. XVG is an excellent technology concept which is very welcome in a world of decreasing privacy. Remember XVG not a company. It is an open source project. So far, they have delivered updates as promised to the best of their ability. Do not hold them to as strict a standard as you would a solid company - instead look at your positions with XVG as venture capital investments.
The W Phase: Triangle Correction
This was the first phase of the correction, which was welcome and expected after the very rapid rise of the coin. While the rapid rise had attracted a great deal of investment, there was zealous hype and speculation along with a healthy round of profit taking leading to a precipitous drop of the coin.
First X Attempt: Breakout Failure
In counter trend to the previous downturn, there was an initial breakout attempt. However, this was arrested by the gradual and continuing decline of BTC **(upon which new coins like XVG lean on for support)**. Also, there was likely a lot of people dumping the coin on this short rise after having bought into the initial hype around the coin. These factors led to failure of the breakout.
The Y Phase: Zigzag Decline
As BTC continued to fall, it started taking almost all altcoins along for the ride. This took XVG to a local minimum of 600sats (likely the minimum on the coin on this round). This slide further reduced confidence in XVG, leading to the coin taking a substantially stronger beating during the slide. Again, many people bought on the slide expecting a rise in XVG and a turnaround on BTC, but this false optimism soon turned to pessimism and panic selling out of speculative coins such as XVG to solid hedge coins such as BTC or perhaps even fiat as the crypto crash became more violent.
Second X Attempt: Breakout Failure
As BTC started to rise off its 9-10k$ low, XVG came with it to find price stability in the 800-900 sats range. For those who bought in at the minimum, this represented a healthy profit on a very speculative gamble. However, this bounce with BTC was rather weak, as BTC is still in a corrective oscillation. Thus trend reversal on XVG failed bringing it into another final triangle correction.
The Z phase: A Final Short Triangle
In response to the failure another corrective oscillation ensues, but with volume at a minimum there is very little price action on the coin. It is safe to say that after these phases that XVG has successfully consolidated around the 800-950sats mark. Look for a decision on the coin soon. At this point, I think it is safe to assume those who bought into the hype have taken their losses and all that remains are those who are willing to hold the coin through the final stages of the BTC correction.
What is the future of XVG?
It is my belief that XVG has a strong future, and that the coin will continue to rise long term. The supply available for purchase is now likely very low. If there is any significant demand for XVG, you can expect explosive price rise over the next few months **pending that we see a rise in BTC and crypto in general, which I believe we will**. Recall that this entire correction with XVG played out in the space of just one month, whereas similar protracted WXYXZ corrections can take years to complete in the stock market. Sentiment on XVG is now at rock bottom as many will remember taking heavy losses on this coin. However, these are precisely the psychological conditions during which Wave Theory suggests a change in trend.
@hyper_cubist
XVG Fundamental Sanity Check
For what its worth, the XVG team is still working diligently on their Tor coin. XVG is an excellent technology concept which is very welcome in a world of decreasing privacy. Remember XVG not a company. It is an open source project. So far, they have delivered updates as promised to the best of their ability. Do not hold them to as strict a standard as you would a solid company - instead look at your positions with XVG as venture capital investments.
The W Phase: Triangle Correction
This was the first phase of the correction, which was welcome and expected after the very rapid rise of the coin. While the rapid rise had attracted a great deal of investment, there was zealous hype and speculation along with a healthy round of profit taking leading to a precipitous drop of the coin.
First X Attempt: Breakout Failure
In counter trend to the previous downturn, there was an initial breakout attempt. However, this was arrested by the gradual and continuing decline of BTC **(upon which new coins like XVG lean on for support)**. Also, there was likely a lot of people dumping the coin on this short rise after having bought into the initial hype around the coin. These factors led to failure of the breakout.
The Y Phase: Zigzag Decline
As BTC continued to fall, it started taking almost all altcoins along for the ride. This took XVG to a local minimum of 600sats (likely the minimum on the coin on this round). This slide further reduced confidence in XVG, leading to the coin taking a substantially stronger beating during the slide. Again, many people bought on the slide expecting a rise in XVG and a turnaround on BTC, but this false optimism soon turned to pessimism and panic selling out of speculative coins such as XVG to solid hedge coins such as BTC or perhaps even fiat as the crypto crash became more violent.
Second X Attempt: Breakout Failure
As BTC started to rise off its 9-10k$ low, XVG came with it to find price stability in the 800-900 sats range. For those who bought in at the minimum, this represented a healthy profit on a very speculative gamble. However, this bounce with BTC was rather weak, as BTC is still in a corrective oscillation. Thus trend reversal on XVG failed bringing it into another final triangle correction.
The Z phase: A Final Short Triangle
In response to the failure another corrective oscillation ensues, but with volume at a minimum there is very little price action on the coin. It is safe to say that after these phases that XVG has successfully consolidated around the 800-950sats mark. Look for a decision on the coin soon. At this point, I think it is safe to assume those who bought into the hype have taken their losses and all that remains are those who are willing to hold the coin through the final stages of the BTC correction.
What is the future of XVG?
It is my belief that XVG has a strong future, and that the coin will continue to rise long term. The supply available for purchase is now likely very low. If there is any significant demand for XVG, you can expect explosive price rise over the next few months **pending that we see a rise in BTC and crypto in general, which I believe we will**. Recall that this entire correction with XVG played out in the space of just one month, whereas similar protracted WXYXZ corrections can take years to complete in the stock market. Sentiment on XVG is now at rock bottom as many will remember taking heavy losses on this coin. However, these are precisely the psychological conditions during which Wave Theory suggests a change in trend.
@hyper_cubist