Quantum's ZIM Trading Guide 4/8/25

ZIM
(ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd.) - Sector: Industrials (Shipping)

Sentiment:
--Bearish (slight softening). Pre-market put volume softened, RSI likely ~35 (down from ~38 with a -2.8% drop from $12.9608 to $12.591), X posts overnight mixed—tariff fears dominate, but LNG fleet news (10 new 11,500 TEU vessels announced April 8) offers faint hope, suggesting a less aggressive sell-off than March’s lows.

Tariff Impact:
--Severe. 10% universal tariffs raise fuel and container costs, with 46% Vietnam tariffs threatening Asia-U.S. routes (70%+ revenue). Sentiment overshadows fundamentals, though LNG fleet modernization and freight rate resilience provide a slight buffer.

News/Catalysts:
--Consumer Credit (April 8) could signal trade demand—weak data may deepen ZIM’s slide; X posts on the $2.3B LNG charter deal (announced April 8) and potential freight rate stabilization (e.g., Red Sea tensions) might spark a relief rally today.

Technical Setup:
--Weekly Chart:
---HVN near $15 as resistance (March 25 high: $15.2512), weekly low ~$12.4106 as support
---Downtrend (8-week EMA < 13-week < 48-week, reflecting $12–$20 range since March).
---RSI ~35 (weakening, near oversold),
---MACD below signal (histogram narrowing),
---Bollinger Bands at lower band,
---Donchian Channels below midline,
---Williams %R -80 (oversold).

-One-Hour Chart:
---Support at $12.81 (April 7 prev. close proxy), resistance at $13.547 (April 7 high), weekly confluence.
---RSI ~37, MACD below signal (histogram less negative),
---Bollinger Bands at lower band,
--- Donchian Channels below midline,
---Williams %R -78 (easing from oversold).

-10-Minute Chart:
---Pre-market drop to $12.591, 8/13/48 EMAs down, RSI ~35, MACD flat near zero.

Options Data:
--GEX: Bearish (softening)—pinning near $12.9608 eases pre-market, dealers less aggressive.
--DEX: Bearish—put delta leads but with reduced intensity.
--IV: High—~55–60% vs. norm 45–50%, reflecting tariff-driven volatility.
--OI: Put-heavy—OI concentrated below $13, capping upside momentum.

Directional Bias: Bearish (softening). GEX’s fading pinning reduces downside lock, DEX’s put delta sustains selling but softens, high IV supports volatility without sharp drops, and put-heavy OI anchors lower—bearish with less conviction.

Sympathy Plays:
--SBLK (Star Bulk Carriers): Falls if ZIM dumps (shipping correlation), rises if ZIM rebounds.
--MATX (Matson, Inc.): Drops with ZIM downside, gains if ZIM recovers.
--Opposite Mover: ZIM dumps → defensives like KO rally; ZIM rallies → SBLK/MATX surge.

Sector Positioning with RRG:
--Sector: Industrials (Shipping)
---RRG Position: Lagging Quadrant (slight improvement). ZIM’s pre-market softening from $12.9608 eases its lag vs. XLI, buoyed by LNG news.

Targets: Bullish +4% ($13.50, hourly resistance); Bearish -5% ($12.00, near April low).