GammaLab

4 hikes in 2022? Not so fast.

The implied fed funds rate for December came back 6 basis points today and is telegraphing a fed funds rate of about 0.88 bps, which is suggesting 3 hikes. 1.5 bps of that compression happened in the after markets and I wonder if it was Gundlach that spooked markets with his call for a recession.

Yes, in the big scheme of things (+65 bps since September) a drop of 6 bps is minuscule, but it could point to a further expansion of today's relieve rally if the CPI is playing along tomorrow morning.

Cheers.

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