Is Wheat Climbing the Wall of Worry?

8月8日

Wheat

Technicals (September)

Wheat futures traded lower in yesterday's trade after failing against the previous day's high. That failure snapped a five-day winning streak but wasn't enough to do change much more on the technical landscape. Those high prints from the prior two sessions will act as first resistance at 548 3/4, above that is a more significant resistance pocket from 555 1/2-556 1/4. This is illustrated on the chart below where you can see it acting as more of an inflection point for the market. The Bears have the technical advantage until we see a close above here.

Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Neutral/Bullish (cautiously optimistic)
Resistance: 548 3/4***, 555 1/2-556 1/4***, 590-592***
Pivot: 537-540
Support: 525 1/4-530***, 514-517****

Weekly Export Sales Estimates (released at 7:30am CT)
250,000 to 500,000 MT. Last week's report came in at 286,600 MT, down 7 percent from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Average Estimates for August 12th USDA Report
All Wheat Production: 2.014 billion bushels
24/25 Ending Stocks: 861 million bushels

Below: Daily Chart of September Wheat Futures, depicting resistance and a potential inflection point for the market from 555 1/2-556 1/4.

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