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Unveiling the Warning Signals in Technical Analysis: When Prices
NYSE:BRK.B
Unveiling the Warning Signals in Technical Analysis: When Prices Peak and Trading Volume Surges
In the realm of technical analysis, understanding the signs when prices reach their peak and trading volume surges is critical. Dive into this informative guide to decipher these warning signals effectively.
Introduction:
Exploring the intricate world of technical analysis reveals invaluable insights into market behaviors. Among these insights lies a crucial warning: when prices soar to their peaks and trading volumes surge, it often indicates significant market movements ahead. Understanding these signals is paramount for traders and investors alike to navigate the volatile landscape of financial markets successfully.
Navigating Market Turbulence: Identifying Warning Signals
In the realm of technical analysis, the phrase "" encapsulates a pivotal concept. When prices surge to their zenith and trading volume skyrockets, it serves as a cautionary signal indicating significant market shifts. Let's delve deeper into understanding this phenomenon and its implications.
Interpreting Price Peaks and Volume Surges
When conducting technical analysis, observing price movements and trading volumes is fundamental. However, it's the convergence of these two factors that warrants attention. A scenario where prices reach their peaks accompanied by a substantial surge in trading volume suggests a crucial juncture in the market dynamics.
Analyzing Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior
At the core of technical analysis lies the study of market sentiment and investor behavior. When prices soar to their peaks, it often reflects euphoria among market participants, fueled by bullish sentiments. Concurrently, the surge in trading volume signifies heightened activity, indicating significant participation from both buyers and sellers.
Understanding Accumulation and Distribution Phases
In technical analysis, the concept of accumulation and distribution plays a pivotal role. When prices peak and trading volume surges, it may indicate the beginning of a distribution phase, where smart money or institutional investors start offloading their positions to capitalize on the prevailing market sentiment.
Navigating Volatile Markets: Strategies for Traders
For traders navigating volatile markets, recognizing warning signals is paramount. When prices peak and trading volume surges, adopting a cautious approach and implementing risk management strategies becomes imperative. This may involve adjusting trading positions, setting stop-loss orders, or diversifying portfolios to mitigate potential losses.
Strategic Insights for Investors: Long-Term Perspective
Beyond short-term trading strategies, investors can glean valuable insights from these warning signals. When prices reach their peaks and trading volume surges, it may signify overvaluation in the market. Investors with a long-term perspective can utilize this information to reassess their investment strategies and identify potential entry or exit points.
FAQs (Frequently Asked Questions)
What are the implications of prices reaching their peaks in technical analysis?
Prices reaching their peaks often indicate a potential reversal or correction in the market, prompting traders to exercise caution and adjust their strategies accordingly.
How does trading volume surge influence market dynamics?
A surge in trading volume signifies increased market activity and participation, suggesting significant shifts in investor sentiment and potential trend reversals.
What role do institutional investors play when prices peak and trading volume surges?
Institutional investors often capitalize on market euphoria by offloading their positions during distribution phases, contributing to increased trading volumes.
How can traders navigate volatile markets effectively?
Traders can navigate volatile markets by adopting cautious strategies, implementing risk management techniques, and staying informed about prevailing market conditions.
What insights can investors derive from warning signals in technical analysis?
Investors can utilize warning signals to reassess their investment strategies, identify potential opportunities or risks, and make informed decisions aligned with their long-term goals.
Are warning signals in technical analysis always accurate predictors of market movements?
While warning signals provide valuable insights, market dynamics can be influenced by various factors, and outcomes may vary. It's essential to supplement technical analysis with fundamental research and risk management practices.
Conclusion:
In the realm of technical analysis, recognizing warning signals when prices peak and trading volume surges is paramount. These signals serve as invaluable indicators of potential market shifts, guiding traders and investors in navigating volatile market conditions effectively. By understanding the implications of these signals and adopting appropriate strategies, market participants can mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities with confidence.
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NQ 失控了嗎?我該進場嗎? Feeling frustrated? Should I follow along?紅線的部分將是我的交易計劃,等待價格先展開一段下降回調到失衡區之後,期待價格繼續在下到BOB,切換小時間級別K線觀察價格型態是否出現反轉,出現反轉時勇敢做多!
預計進場價格:16852
預計止損價格:16834
預計出場價格:17039
風險報酬比:1:11
以上不構成投資交易建議,想了解更多免費的盤勢分析以及免費指標還有免費線上課程可以追蹤我IG私訊我了解更多!
追蹤凱哥,帶你上車!!
The red line represents my trading plan.
I am waiting for the price to initiate a downward movement, retracing to the FVG zone. I anticipate the price to continue down to the breakout of order block (BOB).
I will switch to a smaller time frame to observe the price action for signs of reversal, and I will enter a long position when a reversal is confirmed.
Expected Entry Price: 16852
Expected Stop Loss Price: 16834
Expected Exit Price: 17039
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:11
The above does not constitute investment or trading advice.
If you would like to learn more about free market analysis,
indicators, and online courses, feel free to message me on Instagram for more information!
Follow me for insights and let me guide you on the journey!
BTC 在未來歷史長河將開啟一次巨大利潤我們透過技術指標觀察周線將迎來巨大的利潤上漲空間
當然這不是立即性也不是當下發生
這是周線的時間軸來發生並且啟動這一輪上漲盤面
因此在交易市場所謂的熊市已經結束
注意日線的上下起伏
不要過度開高倍槓桿來盈利
這是以周為單位的長線........
We observe through technical indicators that the weekly line will usher in a huge profit upside space
Of course, it's not instant and it's not happening right now
This is the timeline for the week to occur and start the current rally
Thus, the so-called bear market in trading markets is over
Pay attention to the rise and fall of the daily line
Do not use excessive leverage to profit
This is the long line of surrounding units...
一個能讓你的指標自適應市場週期的演算法庫立身以立學為先,立學以讀書為本——歐陽修
對於很多有數字信號處理背景的交易者,可能很容易理解約翰 艾勒斯的週期理論。他把市場看作一個離散數字信號系統,把大量現代數字信號演算法用到他的指標裏面。其中,他認為市場是一個變週期,富含各種諧波分量的數字信號系統。既然是變週期,所以很多技術指標的參數如果是固定的,就只能在某一段時間內符合市場特徵,能夠正確地反映市場的真實狀態。一旦市場調頻後,固定參數指標的“頻率”就會和市場“失諧”,從而會失效。簡而言之,就像是日常生活中用的FM收音機,頻率能對上就能享受美妙的音樂,一旦頻率偏移就只能聽到雜訊了,這是一個道理。另外,艾勒斯的週期理論認為趨勢只是大循環,大週期分量占主導地位的上升或下降階段,在大週期分量裏還混雜各種節奏的小週期。但是無論如何,是可以採用眾多頻率的正弦波合成進行表達,只不過分量眾多,而且頻率是變化的。這其實不僅和道氏理論,艾略特波浪理論相對應,而且也能和中國纏中說禪的“級別”概念相對應。這就解釋為什麼很多人學習波浪和纏論仍舊炒不好股,因為這個“主控級別”是變化的,並不是一成不變的,如果交易者不能夠快速跟上市場“變頻”的節奏,就會大概率吃面。一個狙擊手要命中一個高速移動的目標,肯定要調整倍鏡的倍數。使用固定倍數倍鏡射擊超出範圍的目標,失手的概率就會增加,使用技術指標是一個道理。
自動調參數的技術指標
目前有很多人嘗試各種方法使得技術指標能夠快速適應市場變化,也就是自適應指標(Adaptive Indicators)。這裏不乏使用AI機器學習演算法,甚至採用最新的Transformer演算法的交易者。但是,傳統機器學習演算法訓練需要大量樣本和訓練才能保證演算法收斂,獲得有效的參數。但是這種及時性往往不能夠滿足快速變化的市場走勢。這時就可以考慮採用艾勒斯週期理論中一些自適應演算法對指標參數進行自適應。
舉個例子,下圖是一個通過離散傅裏葉變換計算主控週期,並用主控週期對RSI指標參數進行“調諧”的自適應RSI。簡單地說,這個自適應RSI的參數既不是14也不是7,而是根據市場變化計算出一個動態的參數N,你可以設定這個N的變化範圍,演算法會自動計算出這個N值,並讓RSI在不同參數中自動調整。
SZSE: 399006 創業板指數行情來自TradingView
為了對比看出加不加自適應對於指標的影響,我用下麵ESCGO振盪器進行對比,上面是我寫的固定參數的ESCGO指標,下麵是我採用了自適應的ESCGO指標,是不是能看出什麼差別來呢?
SZSE: 399006 創業板指數行情來自TradingView
我閱讀了艾勒斯的4本英文著作,把其發表的文章都仔細研究後,總結了12種計算市場主控週期(Dominant Cycle)的演算法,並將其寫成TradingView代碼庫dc_ta公開分享在社區。
1. EhlersHoDyDC()。這是艾勒斯採用希爾伯特變換(Hilbert Transform)結合零差鑒別器(Homodyne Discriminator)計算主控週期的演算法。零差(Homodyne)意味著市場信號被自身相乘。更準確地說,我們希望將當前K線的信號與前一根K線的信號的複數值相乘。根據定義,複共軛是一個複數,其虛部的符號已反轉。
2. EhlersPhAcDC()。這是採用希爾伯特變換(Hilbert Transform)結合相位累加器(Phase Accumulator)計算主控週期的演算法。市場主控週期測量採用相位累加法總是使用一個完整週期的歷史數據。這既是優點也是缺點。優點是在獲得的主控週期的滯後性直接與迴圈週期有關。也就是說,短週期的測量比較長週期的測量具有更少的滯後。然而,用於進行測量的樣本數量意味著平均週期隨迴圈週期而變化。與信號相比,更長的平均時間會降低雜訊水準。因此,較短的週期週期必然具有較高的輸出信噪比 (SNR)。因此,這種演算法更適合計算小週期,以保證較少的週期計算滯後性。
3. EhlersDuDiDC()。這是採用希爾伯特變換(Hilbert Transform)結合雙差分(Dual Differential)演算法計算主控週期的方式。市場信號分量經過複雜的平均並在 EMA 中進行平滑處理,以避免在隨後的乘法步驟中出現任何不希望的叉積。週期直接從平滑的同相和正交分量求解。分母的臨時計算作為 Value1 執行,以確保分母不會有零值。Valuel 的符號相對於理論方程是相反的,因為差異是在時間上向後看的。
4. EhlersCycPer()。這是週期演算法(Cycle Period)。它顯示了如何計算當前週期週期,即當前峰值或穀值與下一個峰值或穀值之間的大致K線數。
5. EhlersCycPer2()。這是週期演算法(Cycle Period)另一個版本。
6. EhlersBPZC()。這是帶通濾波過零(Bandpass Zero Crossings)法。對於數字濾波器理論比較理解的交易者會知道,可以通過約束帶通濾波器帶寬找到主控週期,並濾除其他週期分量,然後輸出信號會像一個正弦波,當正弦波從一個零點開始上穿到下一次上穿零為一個週期。
7. EhlersAutoPer()。這是自相關週期圖(Autocorrelation Periodogram)法。自相關週期圖的構建從使用最小三個平均K線的自相關函數開始。使用自相關結果的離散傅裏葉變換 (DFT) 提取迴圈資訊。與其他頻譜估計技術相比,這種方法特定的優勢(不代表實際應用中這些優勢更加明顯)。
8. EhlersHoDyDCE()。這是艾勒斯採用帶通濾波(Bandpass Filtering)結合零差鑒別器(Homodyne Discriminator)計算主控週期的演算法。
9. EhlersPhAcDCE()。這是艾勒斯採用帶通濾波(Bandpass Filtering)結合相位累加器(Phase Accumulator)計算主控週期的演算法。
10. EhlersDuDiDCE()。這是艾勒斯採用帶通濾波(Bandpass Filtering)結合雙差分(Dual Differential)演算法計算主控週期的方式。
11. EhlersDFTDC()。這是通過離散傅裏葉變換提取主控週期的方法。
12. EhlersDFTDC2()。這是利用多個帶通濾波結合離散傅裏葉變換提取主控週期的方法。
dc_ta庫可以賦能傳統指標,但是這裏也有難點,就是動態自適應參數的定標問題:以哪個值為基準,振幅多少才是最優。我理解採用dc_ta自適應庫只能將跟蹤市場變化的一部分工作由演算法承擔,仍需控制演算法長期的漂移。我也仍在研究階段,目前來看除了定標,就是計算出來的週期滯後性問題仍需要評估。也就是計算出來的週期如果已經是“昨日黃花”,對於當下市場的意義就不大了。歡迎感興趣的朋友和我交流相關見解。
USDJPY daily chart分析如下
高檔背離(技術指標)
一吞三K(K縣)
盤漲(型態面)
Analyze as below
high-level price deviation(technical indicators)
one short candle swallow three candles ahead
rise slowly(pattern side)
14pip against 207.5pip as you want to stop profit
14pip換207.5pip的獲利
停損請放當日收線最高點,有可能後續才會掉下去,先損14pip要有紀律
tw.tradingview.com
Wait for Euro/USD to breakthrough downward channel
While EUR/USD obviously under pressure of the downward trend line, indicators including MACD and DMI shows bullish signals.
Pending EUR/USD to make a daily close above 1.1360 to confirm reversal, with initial target 1.1420, and another bet aim for higher 1.1560
Potential event to trigger the breakthrough could be the FOMC meeting this week