COMMENT-Week Ahead-Tariffs, Ukraine, ECB, Powell, US jobs, China NPC

Tariff announcements, Ukraine peace efforts, the European Central Bank's rate decision, speeches by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other officials, the U.S. jobs report, global February PMIs, and China's annual parliament meeting ensure a busy start to March.

Trade tensions will continue to dominate price action after U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Sunday said that U.S. President Donald Trump will set exact levels for Mexico and Canada tariffs on Tuesday. He added that Trump is expected to raise tariffs on China that day.

European leaders' attempts to draw up a Ukraine peace plan will be watched following last week's White House clash between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump.

The full U.S. data schedule includes ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, final S&P PMIs, ADP jobs data, factory orders, the Fed's Beige book, trade, weekly jobless claims, and finally, the February jobs report. The Reuters poll forecasts a 133,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and 4.0% unemployment rate.

Fed speakers include Alberto Musalem, John Williams, Thomas Barkin, and Powell, who speaks at the University of Chicago on Friday.

A 25-basis-point ECB cut to 2.50% is fully priced in for Thursday, so from a market perspective, the statement and President Christine Lagarde's news conference will shape expectations.

Euro zone data highlights include flash HICP, final February PMIs, Q4 GDP third estimate, unemployment, PPI, retail sales, German industrial orders and manufacturing output.

In the UK, the March 4 budget leads event risk, while PMIs are the only significant data. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and other officials testify in parliament on Wednesday.

In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida speak on Wednesday. Japan's data releases are PMIs, employment, capex, and consumer confidence.

China's 14th National People's Congress will open its third annual session on Wednesday. Beijing is expected to announce economic targets and unveil more stimulus as U.S. tariffs loom. Caixin manufacturing and services PMI will be followed by February trade on Friday and CPI and PPI on Sunday.

Australia's data highlights include January retail sales, Q4 GDP, current account, and trade. The Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes to the February meeting when it cut rates for the first time since 2020 are due Tuesday. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser delivers a keynote speech.

Canada publishes PMIs, trade and employment data and, New Zealand, Q4 terms of trade. The RBNZ hosts a research conference on inflation targeting; speakers include Governor Adrian Orr and the BoE's Catherine Mann.

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