Here’s Why Altcoin Season Hasn’t Arrived, According To This Top Quant Analyst
Bitcoin was fast approaching the $100,000 level last week but stopped short, ultimately still hitting a fresh historic high of $99,645. The retrace, nonetheless, has left market participants wondering whether the altcoin season is imminent. An altseason normally refers to a crypto market phase where altcoins skyrocket in value to often outshine Bitcoin.
As crypto traders eagerly await a potential altcoin season after Bitcoin’s parabolic surge, however, one analyst has argued that it won’t unfold as expected until there are new capital injections from retail investors.
Why Altseason Is Delayed
In a lengthy X post on Nov. 27, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju noted that the nature of capital flowing into Bitcoin has shifted compared to the previous market cycle. The current bull market is primarily dominated by institutional investors and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), unlike the retail-driven capital flows in previous bull rallies.
Ki Young Ju@ki_young_ju十一月 27, 2024Why is altcoin season delayed?
Compared to the last cycle, the nature of capital flowing into #Bitcoin has shifted. The current Bitcoin rally is primarily driven by demand from institutional investors and spot ETFs.
Unlike crypto exchange users, institutional investors and ETF… pic.twitter.com/dpDBCF0BTo
According to Young Ju, institutional investors, ETF buyers, and crypto exchange users are not interested in rotating their assets from the flagship crypto to altcoins. Furthermore, as they continue operating outside of digital asset exchanges, the rotation of assets becomes less possible.
He also observed that altcoin market capitalization remains well below its current all-time high, indicating reduced fresh liquidity from new exchange users.
“For altcoins to reach a new all-time high market capitalization, they will require a significant influx of fresh capital to crypto exchanges,” the quant analyst wrote.
Altseason Will Only Be For A Few Coins
The CryptoQuant CEO claimed that reigniting Bitcoin retail FOMO could increase exchange activity, potentially laying the foundation for an altcoin season. But Bitcoin’s future growth is anticipated to come from exchange-traded funds, institutions, and also governments rather than retail traders on crypto exchanges.
As such, Young Ju believes altcoins should instead focus on creating their own strategies to attract fresh capital rather than fully depending on BTC’s momentum.
He went on to emphasize that while he is bullish on altcoins, he thinks that only a select few coins will manage to attract fresh capital, adding:
“Altcoin season will come, but it’ll be for a few, not every altcoin will hit its previous ATH.”