Eigenvector Centrality Drift (ECD) - Market State Network

What is Eigenvector Centrality Drift (ECD)?

Eigenvector Centrality Drift (ECD) is a groundbreaking indicator that applies concepts from network science to financial markets. Instead of viewing price as a simple series, ECD models the market as a dynamic network of “micro-states”—distinct combinations of price, volatility, and volume. By tracking how the influence of these states changes over time, ECD helps you spot regime shifts and transitions in market character before they become obvious in price.

This is not another moving average or momentum oscillator. ECD is inspired by eigenvector centrality—a measure of influence in network theory—and adapts it to the world of price action, volatility, and volume. It’s about understanding which market states are “in control” and when that control is about to change.

Theoretical Foundation
Network Science: In complex systems, nodes (states) and edges (transitions) form a network. Eigenvector centrality measures how influential a node is, not just by its direct connections, but by the influence of the nodes it connects to.
Market Micro-States: Each bar is classified into a “state” based on price change, volatility, and volume. The market transitions between these states, forming a network of possible regimes.
Centrality Drift: By tracking the centrality (influence) of the current state, and how it changes (drifts) over time, ECD highlights when the market’s “center of gravity” is shifting—often a precursor to major moves or regime changes.
How ECD Works
State Classification: Each bar is assigned to one of N market micro-states, based on a weighted combination of normalized price change, volatility, and volume.
Transition Matrix: Over a rolling window, ECD tracks how often the market transitions from each state to every other state, forming a transition probability matrix.
Centrality Calculation: Using a simplified eigenvector approach, ECD calculates the “influence” score for each state, reflecting how central it is to the network of recent market behavior.
Centrality Drift: The indicator tracks the Z-score of the change in centrality for the current state. Rapid increases or decreases, or a shift in the dominant state, signal a potential regime shift.
Dominant State: ECD also highlights which state currently has the highest influence, providing insight into the prevailing market character.

Inputs:

🌐 Market State Configuration
Number of Market States (n_states, default 6): Number of distinct micro-states to track.
3–4: Simple (Up/Down/Sideways)
5–6: Balanced (recommended)
7–9: Complex, more nuanced
Price Change Weight (price_weight, default 0.4):
How much price movement defines a state. Higher = more directional.
Volatility Weight (vol_weight, default 0.3):
How much volatility defines a state. Higher = more regime focus.
Volume Weight (volume_weight, default 0.3):
How much volume defines a state. Higher = more participation focus.

🔗 Network Analysis
Transition Matrix Window (transition_window, default 50): Lookback for building the state transition matrix.
Shorter: Adapts quickly
Longer: More stable
Influence Decay Factor (influence_decay, default 0.85): How much influence propagates through the network.
Higher: Distant transitions matter more
Lower: Only immediate transitions matter

Drift Detection Sensitivity (drift_sensitivity, default 1.5): Z-score threshold for significant centrality drift.
Lower: More signals
Higher: Only major shifts

🎨 Visualization
Show Network Visualization (show_network, default true): Background color and effects based on network structure.
Show Centrality Score (show_centrality, default true): Plots the current state’s centrality measure.
Show Drift Indicator (show_drift, default true): Plots the centrality drift Z-score.
Show State Map (show_state_map, default true): Dashboard showing all state centralities and which is dominant.
Color Scheme (color_scheme, default "Quantum"):
“Quantum”: Cyan/Magenta
“Neural”: Green/Blue
“Plasma”: Yellow/Pink
“Matrix”: Green/Black

Color Schemes
Dynamic gradients reflect the current state’s centrality and drift, using your chosen color palette.
Background network effect: The more central the current state, the more intense the background.
Centrality and drift lines: Color-coded for clarity and regime shift detection.

Visual Logic
Centrality Score Line: Plots the influence of the current state, with glow for emphasis.
Drift Indicator: Histogram of centrality drift Z-score, green for positive, red for negative.
Threshold Lines: Dotted lines mark the drift sensitivity threshold for regime shift alerts.
State Map Dashboard: Top-right panel shows all state centralities, highlights the current and dominant state, and visualizes influence with bars.
Information Panel: Bottom-left panel summarizes current state, centrality, dominant state, drift Z-score, and regime shift status.

How to Use ECD
Centrality Score: High = current state is highly influential; low = state is peripheral.
Drift Z-Score:
Large positive/negative = rapid change in influence, regime shift likely.
Near zero = stable network, no major shift.
Dominant State: The state with the highest centrality is “in control” of the market’s transitions.
State Map: Use to see which states are rising or falling in influence.

Tips:
Use fewer states for simple markets, more for nuanced analysis.
Watch for drift Z-score crossing the threshold—these are your regime shift signals.
Combine with your own system for confirmation.

Alerts:
ECD Regime Shift: Significant centrality drift detected—potential regime change.
ECD State Change: Market state transition occurred.
ECD Dominance Shift: Dominant market state has changed.

Originality & Usefulness
ECD is not a mashup or rehash of standard indicators. It is a novel application of network science and eigenvector centrality to market microstructure, providing a new lens for understanding regime shifts and market transitions. The state network, centrality drift, and dashboard are unique to this script. ECD is designed for anticipation, not confirmation—helping you see the market’s “center of gravity” shift before price action makes it obvious.

Chart Info
Script Name: Eigenvector Centrality Drift (ECD) – Market State Network
Recommended Use: Any asset, any timeframe. Tune parameters to your style.

Disclaimer
This script is for research and educational purposes only. It does not provide financial advice or direct buy/sell signals. Always use proper risk management and combine with your own strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

See the market as a network. Anticipate the shift in influence.
— Dskyz, for DAFE Trading Systems