FCMS - Time in x Timing - The Market - Study

2021年5月20日

Time in x Timing - The Market

█ DISCLAIMER
THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE
The use of strategy functions doesn't compile recurring investments/contributions as used in this study, so disregard the results of the strategy tester.

As seen in the style/plots lists, I calculate the results in internal variables to analyze historical results.
https://prnt.sc/136mz2a

Anyway, this is only a historical study and past performance is no guarantee of future results


█ CONCEPTS

There is a discussion about Timing x Time in the market.
The point of this discussion is between buying in the better moment, against exposing yourself to the market as soon as possible.
Anyone who argues that the most important factor is the time exposed to the asset, no matter when, is usually based on the SP500 asset.




As shown in the image above, a hypothetical investor who made a single investment of US $ 1500.00 in December 1999, was trapped by a volatility of approximately 10% in the period, followed by a loss of around 50% in the following years. In December 2012, this investment was finally positive, and after 20 years it accumulated a gain of 180% - without reducing inflation in the period.



█ Timing the news

When an asset reaches a new historic high, the idea of ​​"time in the market is the best strategy" gains momentum, after all, at this "moment" everyone previously exposed to the asset is making a profit, regardless of inflation or any benchmark.



█ Time in the market

Considering using this strategy, we can define 3 points for a brief analysis:

• 1. Asset
  SPX is used as a reference for this type of statement due to the difficulty of finding another one with such consistency, liquidity, ease of access and time of history.
  
  
• 2. Long Term
  We cannot consider it a long term strategy, as it never has a predetermined term
  
  
• 3. Recurring contributions.
  To generate an average cost spread over periods of high and low, opening the possibility to realize positions with profit in eventual needs.
  

As shown in the image below, if this hypothetical investor made monthly contributions since the date of the first contributions, he would have the possibility of making profits between the period from October 2004 to September 2008, returning to the loss until October 2010, and then with a profit of 100% over the total amount invested.




Below, an example of an asset in a downtrend with the final balance returning below the total volume invested.





█ First Conclusion

> Recurring contributions (3) to an asset (1) during a downtrend will increase the loss for an indefinite period (2).

> Recurring contributions (3) to an asset (1) during an uptrend are more important than immediate exposure to the asset, regardless of the term (2).

> Recurring contributions (3) in an asset (1) in a region of possible long-term top (2), will negatively affect profitability even considering the resumption of the upward trend in an indefinite period.



█ Timing the market

As shown in the image below, following the strategy above: a single contribution in the amount of US$ 1000.00 at the worst moment (Dec / 2017), the hypothetical investor would have hold a loss of over 80%. At the moment it accumulates 89% of profit, having reached the maximum of 200% at the beginning of the year.




By making monthly contributions since the date of the first contribution, this investor would have the possibility to make profits from May 2019, accumulating 335% profit at the moment.




Adding the condition of buying the maximum cost of 10% above the average price of the last 200 days, the final result is little affected, and reduces losses in the initial investment period.




Adding the condition of taking profit of 50% of the position when the price is above the average of the last 200 days, and reinvesting 50% of the cash obtained in the next purchase opportunity (paying a maximum of 10% above the average of the last 200 days), the profit cumulative final price drops to 270%, but the realized profit already exceeds the total amount invested, which eliminates future risk of the operation. (favorable risk-return ratio)




Adding the condition to reinvest 50% of the cash flow, with the condition to buy when the price is below 20% away from the average of the last 200 days, the final result would be more than 400% of retained earnings, and realized profit in cash greater than the total amount invested.





█ Other Assets

It's possible to analyze other assets, including dividend yield and earnings for the equity formula. This way we can analyse assets more fairly.

ITSA4


BOVA11




█ Final Conclusion

> Exposing yourself early to a good opportunity may be good, but the risk of doing so at the wrong time could delay your projects indefinitely.

> Investment recurrence is the main driver for your future results.

> Setting a maximum value for making entries reduces short-term fluctuation but, in the long run, the effect is almost imperceptible.

> The realization of profits at favorable times considerably reduces the risk and volatility of the balance, in addition to providing cash for better opportunities in the short and medium term.

> Taking advantage of part of this cash flow for purchases in moments of opportunity, enhances future earnings.


Even an extremely simple strategy like the one used in the examples above, offers a better risk return for the investor compared to the immediate exposure to an asset.

Thus arises the desire to study more sophisticated strategies, as we will see in the future



█ Challenges

Time in the market
- [ ] Find good assets (1) to make recurring contributions (3) for an indeterminate period (2).

Timing the market
- [ ] Reading the markets to position yourself in favor of the more probable trends at certain times with predetermined terms.