NQ Manipulation/Distribution Projections + Average Range

This is not your typical OHLC indicator :)

Overview:

The Manipulation/Distribution Projections (OHLC Stats) indicator is a powerful tool designed to forecast potential price levels for various timeframes. It operates on a simple yet profound principle: price action within a single candle can be broken down into "manipulation" and "distribution" phases. By analyzing over 17 years of historical data for major assets in Python, this script calculates the average (mean) and typical (median) extent of these movements.
These statistical insights are then used to project key levels on your chart based on the current period's opening price, providing a statistically-grounded framework for potential support, resistance, and price targets.
Key Concepts Explained
The indicator's logic is based on how price wicks and bodies form relative to the opening price.
• Manipulation: This refers to the initial move that goes against the candle's eventual direction. For a bullish candle, it's the lower wick (the move from the open down to the low before reversing higher). For a bearish candle, it's the upper wick (the move from the open up to the high before selling off). It represents a "fake out" or a stop hunt.
• Distribution: This is the primary, directional move of the candle from the opening price. For a bullish candle, it's the distance from the open to the high. For a bearish candle, it's the distance from the open to the low. It represents the "real" intended direction of price for that period.
How It Works
This indicator does not calculate these ratios in real-time. Instead, it leverages a comprehensive statistical analysis performed externally in Python on over 17 years of OHLC data. This analysis determined the mean and median ratios for both Manipulation and Distribution movements across different timeframes and, for intraday periods, different times of day.
These pre-computed, static ratios are embedded directly into the script. When a new period begins (e.g., a new day on the Daily timeframe), the indicator:
1. Takes the opening price for that period.
2. Retrieves the corresponding pre-calculated Manipulation and Distribution ratios.
3. Applies these ratios to the opening price to project eight potential price levels:
o + / - Mean Distribution
o + / - Median Distribution
o + / - Mean Manipulation
o + / - Median Manipulation
This approach provides a stable, forward-looking set of levels for the entire duration of the trading period.
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Features
• Statistically-Derived Projections: Plots eight key price levels based on historical tendencies, providing clear potential zones for entries, exits, and stop placement.
• Selectable Timeframe: Choose to view projections for the 1H, 4H, 1D, or 1W periods directly from the settings.
• Dynamic Stats Table: A powerful, on-chart dashboard that provides real-time context. For all four timeframes (1H, 4H, 1D, 1W), it shows:
o Position: Where the current price is relative to the projected zones (e.g., "In +Manip Zone," "Below -Dist").
o Range Completed: The percentage of the historical average range that the current period has already covered.
o Current & Average Range: The current high-to-low range in points vs. the historical average.
• Historical Context: You can display levels for previous periods to see how price has interacted with them in the past.
• Full Customization: Control the color, style, and visibility of every line, label, and fill to match your chart's theme.
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How to Use
This indicator is versatile and can be integrated into various trading strategies.
• Identifying Targets & Reversal Zones: The Distribution levels (especially the zone between the median and mean) can serve as logical take-profit targets, as they represent a historical point of extension. Conversely, Manipulation levels can indicate areas where price might form a wick and reverse.
• Gauging Volatility: Use the Stats Table's "Range Completed" column to assess market conditions. If the 1D range is only 30% complete by mid-day, there may be room for significant expansion. If it's already at 150%, the market might be overextended and due for consolidation.
• Multi-Timeframe Confluence: Use the Stats Table to quickly check if the price on a lower timeframe (e.g., 1H) is approaching a significant level on a higher timeframe (e.g., 1D), adding more weight to that level.
• Defining Bias: If the price opens and holds above the Manipulation zones, it can signal a strong directional bias for the rest of the period.
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Settings
• Projection Timeframe: The primary timeframe for which to calculate and display the levels.
• Historical Periods to Show: Set to 1 for only the current period, or increase to see how levels from past periods held up.
• Timezone: Set the timezone for accurate hourly calculations (defaults to America/New_York).
• Visuals: Customize the appearance of the projection lines, labels, and the shaded zones between mean and median levels.
• Stats Table: Enable/disable the table and configure its position, size, and colors.
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Disclaimer: This indicator is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and risk management.

Enjoy!