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BTC - CII: Drawdown DNA | RM
BTC - CII: Drawdown DNA | Rob_Maths
The "Broken Cycle" Series: Pt 1
Welcome to the debut of the Cycle Integrity Index (CII). This quantitative diagnostic suite was engineered for a singular mission: to determine if Bitcoin’s historical 4-year cycle is still the primary track rhythm, or if the market has shifted into a high-downforce Institutional Regime.
As of January 2026, the Bitcoin market is at a historical crossroads. According to the classical 4-year model, we have passed the "Theoretical Peak" and are now on the long descent toward a projected cycle low in late 2026. However, a massive debate is raging: Is the cycle broken?
While legacy models expect a total engine failure (an -80% wipeout) by the end of this year, the ETF-era market structure suggests we may have "re-engineered" the asset's DNA. Pt 1: Drawdown DNA acts as our first telemetry check, auditing the "Structural Fatigue" of every correction to see if we are taking a tactical pit stop or heading for a catastrophic crash.
How to Read the Telemetry
Think of the Bitcoin market as a Formula 1 engine. This indicator audits the "Wear and Tear" (drawdowns) to see if the chassis can sustain its pace or if the structural integrity is failing as we approach the legacy "finish line."
• Vibrant Green (Institutional Sync): Optimal Performance. The engine is healthy. Pullbacks are shallow (-20% to -35% range), representing professional re-fueling stops by smart money. This suggests the "Supercycle" narrative is overriding the 4-year clock.
• Red/Dark Blue (Regime Decay): Loss of Traction. The "Institutional" heartbeat is weakening. Volatility is rising as the engine stalls, drifting back toward the chaotic, un-buffered "Drift" patterns of the retail era.
• Blue Shaded Zones (Legacy DNA): SYSTEMIC CRASH. The price has breached the -50% "G-Force Threshold." At this depth, the correction carries the genetic makeup of a Legacy Bear Market (historically bottoming near -80%). The 4-year cycle is still very much alive—and it's painful.
Behind the Math: ECU Tuning
This script is an original quantitative work utilizing Gaussian Probability Density logic to categorize market drawdowns into distinct historical regimes.
Instead of simple binary "on/off" logic, the code acts like an ECU (Electronic Control Unit), calculating the mathematical "fit" of the current drawdown against a specific Institutional Mean (-25%). Why 25%? I chose -25% as the Institutional DNA anchor based on the structural shift observed between 2023 and 2025. While legacy retail cycles were defined by violent 30-40% "shakeouts" during bull phases, the introduction of spot ETFs and corporate treasury adoption has significantly compressed volatility. A -25% correction now represents the maximum "healthy" absorption of sell-side liquidity by institutional "bids." Staying near this level maintains high aerodynamic sync; dropping further suggests the chassis is failing.
How it Audits the Regime
The closer the price stays to this -25% target, the higher the Integrity Score (10/10). By providing unique "DNA Match" calculations and background shading based on specific threshold crossings, this indicator provides utility beyond standard price-change indicators. It allows you to mathematically distinguish between an "Institutional Rebalancing" and the start of a "Legacy Cycle-Ending Termination."
User Inputs & Navigation
• Rolling High Lookback: Default 52 Weeks. Defines our diagnostic lap. It ensures the audit focuses on the current race, not the entire history of the track.
• Inst. Drawdown Target: Default -25%. The "Perfect Pit Stop." Corrections near this level maintain the highest aerodynamic sync.
• Legacy Threshold: Default -50%. The "Point of No Return" where the engine enters total failure and the Blue Legacy Shading triggers.
• Legacy Crash Target: Default -80%. The historical baseline for previous 4-year cycle bear market floors (Expected mid-to-late 2026 in legacy models).
Instructions & Performance
• Preferred Timeframe: This is a macro-telemetry tool. It performs best on Weekly (1W) or Daily (1D) charts.
• The Dashboard: Monitor the INST. DNA MATCH in the table. A score of 8.0+ / 10 provides the "Green Light" that the Supercycle is still the primary driver, effectively breaking the 4-year "Crash" script.
Disclaimer
Trading and investing in digital assets involve significant risk. The Cycle Integrity Index (CII) is a quantitative tool for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice. Your capital is at risk.
Tags
robmaths, Rob Maths, Bitcoin, CycleTheory, Institutional, Drawdown, Quant, RegimeShift, CII
Check out my published scripts here:de.tradingview.com/u/Rob_Maths/
The "Broken Cycle" Series: Pt 1
Welcome to the debut of the Cycle Integrity Index (CII). This quantitative diagnostic suite was engineered for a singular mission: to determine if Bitcoin’s historical 4-year cycle is still the primary track rhythm, or if the market has shifted into a high-downforce Institutional Regime.
As of January 2026, the Bitcoin market is at a historical crossroads. According to the classical 4-year model, we have passed the "Theoretical Peak" and are now on the long descent toward a projected cycle low in late 2026. However, a massive debate is raging: Is the cycle broken?
While legacy models expect a total engine failure (an -80% wipeout) by the end of this year, the ETF-era market structure suggests we may have "re-engineered" the asset's DNA. Pt 1: Drawdown DNA acts as our first telemetry check, auditing the "Structural Fatigue" of every correction to see if we are taking a tactical pit stop or heading for a catastrophic crash.
How to Read the Telemetry
Think of the Bitcoin market as a Formula 1 engine. This indicator audits the "Wear and Tear" (drawdowns) to see if the chassis can sustain its pace or if the structural integrity is failing as we approach the legacy "finish line."
• Vibrant Green (Institutional Sync): Optimal Performance. The engine is healthy. Pullbacks are shallow (-20% to -35% range), representing professional re-fueling stops by smart money. This suggests the "Supercycle" narrative is overriding the 4-year clock.
• Red/Dark Blue (Regime Decay): Loss of Traction. The "Institutional" heartbeat is weakening. Volatility is rising as the engine stalls, drifting back toward the chaotic, un-buffered "Drift" patterns of the retail era.
• Blue Shaded Zones (Legacy DNA): SYSTEMIC CRASH. The price has breached the -50% "G-Force Threshold." At this depth, the correction carries the genetic makeup of a Legacy Bear Market (historically bottoming near -80%). The 4-year cycle is still very much alive—and it's painful.
Behind the Math: ECU Tuning
This script is an original quantitative work utilizing Gaussian Probability Density logic to categorize market drawdowns into distinct historical regimes.
Instead of simple binary "on/off" logic, the code acts like an ECU (Electronic Control Unit), calculating the mathematical "fit" of the current drawdown against a specific Institutional Mean (-25%). Why 25%? I chose -25% as the Institutional DNA anchor based on the structural shift observed between 2023 and 2025. While legacy retail cycles were defined by violent 30-40% "shakeouts" during bull phases, the introduction of spot ETFs and corporate treasury adoption has significantly compressed volatility. A -25% correction now represents the maximum "healthy" absorption of sell-side liquidity by institutional "bids." Staying near this level maintains high aerodynamic sync; dropping further suggests the chassis is failing.
How it Audits the Regime
The closer the price stays to this -25% target, the higher the Integrity Score (10/10). By providing unique "DNA Match" calculations and background shading based on specific threshold crossings, this indicator provides utility beyond standard price-change indicators. It allows you to mathematically distinguish between an "Institutional Rebalancing" and the start of a "Legacy Cycle-Ending Termination."
User Inputs & Navigation
• Rolling High Lookback: Default 52 Weeks. Defines our diagnostic lap. It ensures the audit focuses on the current race, not the entire history of the track.
• Inst. Drawdown Target: Default -25%. The "Perfect Pit Stop." Corrections near this level maintain the highest aerodynamic sync.
• Legacy Threshold: Default -50%. The "Point of No Return" where the engine enters total failure and the Blue Legacy Shading triggers.
• Legacy Crash Target: Default -80%. The historical baseline for previous 4-year cycle bear market floors (Expected mid-to-late 2026 in legacy models).
Instructions & Performance
• Preferred Timeframe: This is a macro-telemetry tool. It performs best on Weekly (1W) or Daily (1D) charts.
• The Dashboard: Monitor the INST. DNA MATCH in the table. A score of 8.0+ / 10 provides the "Green Light" that the Supercycle is still the primary driver, effectively breaking the 4-year "Crash" script.
Disclaimer
Trading and investing in digital assets involve significant risk. The Cycle Integrity Index (CII) is a quantitative tool for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice. Your capital is at risk.
Tags
robmaths, Rob Maths, Bitcoin, CycleTheory, Institutional, Drawdown, Quant, RegimeShift, CII
Check out my published scripts here:de.tradingview.com/u/Rob_Maths/
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免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並非旨在提供，也不構成TradingView提供或認可的任何形式的財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議或推薦。請閱讀使用條款以了解更多資訊。