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已更新 Bitcoin 60 Day Cycle Tracker Automated [Bob Loukas Method]
Bitcoin 60-Day Cycle Tracker [FREE]
🎯 Quick Start
This is the FREE version with visual cycle tracking. Want automated alerts? See "Premium Version" section below.
Overview
The Bitcoin 60-Day Cycle Tracker automatically identifies Bitcoin's recurring ~60-day price cycle pattern based on methodology pioneered by Bob Loukas, creator of the "Bitcoin's 4-Year Journey" series. While Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle is well-known, this short-term cycle offers precision timing for entries and exits within the larger trend.
What You Get (Free Version)
✅ Automated Cycle Detection
Green arrows mark cycle lows (typically every 50-65 days)
Red arrows mark cycle highs (peaks within each cycle)
Day count labels show time since last cycle low
✅ Real-Time Dashboard
Current cycle day position
Phase indicator (Early/Mid/Late)
Days until expected cycle low (day 60)
Right/Left translation (bullish/bearish structure)
% gain/loss from cycle low
Last cycle low price reference
Rolling 5-cycle average length
Progress percentage
✅ Smart Configuration
Adjustable pivot sensitivity (default: 6-bar lookback)
Minimum cycle spacing filter (default: 51 days)
Optional overlap detection for compressed cycles
✅ Built-In Safeguards
Works only on Bitcoin pairs (all exchanges)
Locked to Daily (1D) timeframe
Displays warning on wrong chart/timeframe
🔒 Premium Version Features
The premium invite-only version adds 6 automated TradingView alerts:
Time-Based Alerts:
🔔 Day 50 Warning (10 days before expected low)
🔔 Day 55 Warning (5 days before expected low)
🔔 Day 60 Alert (expected cycle low timing)
🔔 Day 65 Alert (extended cycle warning)
Pivot Detection Alerts:
📊 New Cycle Low Detected (when green arrow appears)
📊 Cycle High Detected (when red arrow appears)
All alerts support push notifications, email, SMS, and webhook integration for trading automation.
💎 For premium access with alerts, visit my TradingView profile for details.
Understanding the 60-Day Cycle
The Pattern
Bitcoin consistently forms significant price lows approximately every 60 days, creating a predictable rhythm within the larger 4-year cycle. This pattern appears in both bull and bear markets, though interpretation differs.
Key Metrics:
Typical Length: 50-65 days (average: 60 days)
Cycle Count: ~24 cycles per 4-year halving cycle
Variation: Can compress to 42 days or extend to 70 days in volatile conditions
Cycle Translation
Right-Translated Cycles (Bullish)
Peak occurs after day 30 of the cycle
Indicates strong momentum and buyer strength
Common in uptrends and bull markets
Suggests holding positions longer
Left-Translated Cycles (Bearish)
Peak occurs before day 30 of the cycle
Indicates weakness and seller dominance
Common in downtrends and bear markets
Suggests earlier profit-taking
How to Use This Indicator
Entry Timing
Days 50-60 (Late Phase)
The "buy zone" window
Watch for price weakness and capitulation volume
Prepare limit orders near support levels
Wait for green arrow confirmation before entry
Days 1-10 (Early Phase)
Strongest momentum period after cycle low
Breakout confirmation when price crosses 10-day MA
Highest probability zone for position building
Exit Strategy
Days 30-40 (Mid Phase)
Typical cycle high window in strong trends
Monitor for red arrows (cycle high detection)
Consider partial profit-taking
Trailing stops become appropriate
Days 50+ (Late Phase)
Risk increases as new cycle low approaches
Tighten stops or reduce position size
Watch for failed cycle warnings (price below previous low)
Risk Management
Failed Cycle Signals:
Price breaking below previous cycle low = trend weakness
Multiple short cycles (<45 days) = increased volatility
Extended cycles (>65 days) = potential distribution phase
Confluence Factors:
Combine with Bitcoin's 4-year cycle position
Check volume patterns at cycle lows (capitulation)
Verify with on-chain metrics (UTXO age, realized value)
Consider macro liquidity conditions
Configuration Guide
Default Settings (Optimized for BTC 1D)
Pivot Lookback: 6
Min Days Between Cycle Lows: 51
Max Days for Cycle High: 73
Min Days Before Marking High: 15
High Pivot Lookback: 6
Smart Overlapping: OFF
Tuning for Different Market Conditions
More Sensitive (Catches more cycles)
Reduce Pivot Lookback to 4-5
Lower Min Days Between Lows to 45-48
Enable Smart Overlapping
Best for: Volatile/choppy markets
Less Sensitive (Cleaner signals)
Increase Pivot Lookback to 7-8
Raise Min Days Between Lows to 53-55
Disable Smart Overlapping
Best for: Strong trending markets
Balanced (Recommended)
Keep default settings
Adjust only if consistently missing obvious lows
Document your changes for backtesting
Market Context
Bull Markets
Cycle lows offer accumulation opportunities
Right-translation confirms strong trend
Focus on entries near green arrows
Hold through red arrows in strong uptrends
Bear Markets
Cycle lows may be lower lows (downtrend continues)
Left-translation signals sustained weakness
Use for timing short-term bounce trades
Respect red arrows as exit signals
Sideways Markets
Cycles define range boundaries
Trade range: buy near green arrows, sell near red arrows
Repeated left-translation suggests distribution
Right-translation breakout signals trend resumption
Important Limitations
What This Indicator CANNOT Do
❌ Predict exact price targets
❌ Replace comprehensive market analysis
❌ Guarantee cycle timing precision
❌ Account for black swan events or macro shocks
❌ Work on altcoins or non-crypto assets
Accuracy Expectations
This automated tool approximates manual cycle analysis but cannot match human discretion. Professional analysts like Bob Loukas may consider:
Market narrative and sentiment
Volume profile and liquidity
Macro economic factors
On-chain data confluence
Realistic Expectations:
~70-80% accuracy on cycle low timing (±5 to 10 days)
Variable performance in ranging vs trending markets
Best used as timing framework, not standalone system
Complementary Analysis
Practical Examples
Scenario 1: Bull Market Entry
Current Status:
- Cycle Day: 57
- Phase: Late
- Translation: Right (previous cycle)
- % From Low: -4.2%
Action Plan:
1. Price approaching day 60 window
2. Right-translation suggests continued strength
3. Set alerts for volume spike
4. Prepare buy orders 5-8% below current price
5. Wait for green arrow confirmation
6. Enter on day 1-5 of new cycle
Scenario 2: Bear Market Caution
Current Status:
- Cycle Day: 34
- Phase: Mid
- Translation: Left (current cycle peaked day 26)
- % From Low: +18.7%
Action Plan:
1. Left-translation signals weakness
2. Already well into cycle (day 34)
3. Red arrow may appear soon
4. Set tight trailing stop
5. Consider partial profit-taking
6. Avoid new longs this late in weak cycle
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why Bitcoin only?
A: The 60-day cycle is a Bitcoin-specific pattern observed over multiple market cycles. Altcoins have different rhythms tied to BTC correlation.
Q: Does it work on lower timeframes?
A: No. The indicator is designed for and locked to the Daily (1D) timeframe. Lower timeframes create too much noise.
Q: Can I use this for leverage trading?
A: Cycle timing can inform leverage entries, but always use proper risk management. The cycle is probabilistic, not guaranteed.
Q: What if a cycle extends past day 65?
A: Extended cycles indicate consolidation or distribution. Reduce position size and wait for confirmation.
Q: How do I know if a cycle "failed"?
A: If price breaks below the previous cycle low, the cycle structure has failed, suggesting trend weakness.
Q: Should I buy every day 60?
A: No. Day 60 is a timing window, not a buy signal. Wait for technical confirmation (green arrow, volume, support hold) and combine with other confluences to decide on the trade.
Changelog
v1.0: Initial public release
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals.
Key Risks:
Past cycle patterns do not guarantee future results
Automated detection has inherent limitations
Market conditions can invalidate cycle analysis
Always use proper risk management and position sizing
Never trade based solely on one indicator. Combine cycle analysis with fundamental research, technical analysis, risk management, and your own due diligence.
Trading cryptocurrencies carries substantial risk of loss. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose completely.
Credits
Cycle analysis methodology inspired by Bob Loukas and the cryptocurrency cycle analysis community. Automated detection developed independently using pivot analysis and statistical filtering.
📌 Want automated alerts when various cycle trigger points flash? Visit my profile for premium version access.
🎯 Quick Start
This is the FREE version with visual cycle tracking. Want automated alerts? See "Premium Version" section below.
Overview
The Bitcoin 60-Day Cycle Tracker automatically identifies Bitcoin's recurring ~60-day price cycle pattern based on methodology pioneered by Bob Loukas, creator of the "Bitcoin's 4-Year Journey" series. While Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle is well-known, this short-term cycle offers precision timing for entries and exits within the larger trend.
What You Get (Free Version)
✅ Automated Cycle Detection
Green arrows mark cycle lows (typically every 50-65 days)
Red arrows mark cycle highs (peaks within each cycle)
Day count labels show time since last cycle low
✅ Real-Time Dashboard
Current cycle day position
Phase indicator (Early/Mid/Late)
Days until expected cycle low (day 60)
Right/Left translation (bullish/bearish structure)
% gain/loss from cycle low
Last cycle low price reference
Rolling 5-cycle average length
Progress percentage
✅ Smart Configuration
Adjustable pivot sensitivity (default: 6-bar lookback)
Minimum cycle spacing filter (default: 51 days)
Optional overlap detection for compressed cycles
✅ Built-In Safeguards
Works only on Bitcoin pairs (all exchanges)
Locked to Daily (1D) timeframe
Displays warning on wrong chart/timeframe
🔒 Premium Version Features
The premium invite-only version adds 6 automated TradingView alerts:
Time-Based Alerts:
🔔 Day 50 Warning (10 days before expected low)
🔔 Day 55 Warning (5 days before expected low)
🔔 Day 60 Alert (expected cycle low timing)
🔔 Day 65 Alert (extended cycle warning)
Pivot Detection Alerts:
📊 New Cycle Low Detected (when green arrow appears)
📊 Cycle High Detected (when red arrow appears)
All alerts support push notifications, email, SMS, and webhook integration for trading automation.
💎 For premium access with alerts, visit my TradingView profile for details.
Understanding the 60-Day Cycle
The Pattern
Bitcoin consistently forms significant price lows approximately every 60 days, creating a predictable rhythm within the larger 4-year cycle. This pattern appears in both bull and bear markets, though interpretation differs.
Key Metrics:
Typical Length: 50-65 days (average: 60 days)
Cycle Count: ~24 cycles per 4-year halving cycle
Variation: Can compress to 42 days or extend to 70 days in volatile conditions
Cycle Translation
Right-Translated Cycles (Bullish)
Peak occurs after day 30 of the cycle
Indicates strong momentum and buyer strength
Common in uptrends and bull markets
Suggests holding positions longer
Left-Translated Cycles (Bearish)
Peak occurs before day 30 of the cycle
Indicates weakness and seller dominance
Common in downtrends and bear markets
Suggests earlier profit-taking
How to Use This Indicator
Entry Timing
Days 50-60 (Late Phase)
The "buy zone" window
Watch for price weakness and capitulation volume
Prepare limit orders near support levels
Wait for green arrow confirmation before entry
Days 1-10 (Early Phase)
Strongest momentum period after cycle low
Breakout confirmation when price crosses 10-day MA
Highest probability zone for position building
Exit Strategy
Days 30-40 (Mid Phase)
Typical cycle high window in strong trends
Monitor for red arrows (cycle high detection)
Consider partial profit-taking
Trailing stops become appropriate
Days 50+ (Late Phase)
Risk increases as new cycle low approaches
Tighten stops or reduce position size
Watch for failed cycle warnings (price below previous low)
Risk Management
Failed Cycle Signals:
Price breaking below previous cycle low = trend weakness
Multiple short cycles (<45 days) = increased volatility
Extended cycles (>65 days) = potential distribution phase
Confluence Factors:
Combine with Bitcoin's 4-year cycle position
Check volume patterns at cycle lows (capitulation)
Verify with on-chain metrics (UTXO age, realized value)
Consider macro liquidity conditions
Configuration Guide
Default Settings (Optimized for BTC 1D)
Pivot Lookback: 6
Min Days Between Cycle Lows: 51
Max Days for Cycle High: 73
Min Days Before Marking High: 15
High Pivot Lookback: 6
Smart Overlapping: OFF
Tuning for Different Market Conditions
More Sensitive (Catches more cycles)
Reduce Pivot Lookback to 4-5
Lower Min Days Between Lows to 45-48
Enable Smart Overlapping
Best for: Volatile/choppy markets
Less Sensitive (Cleaner signals)
Increase Pivot Lookback to 7-8
Raise Min Days Between Lows to 53-55
Disable Smart Overlapping
Best for: Strong trending markets
Balanced (Recommended)
Keep default settings
Adjust only if consistently missing obvious lows
Document your changes for backtesting
Market Context
Bull Markets
Cycle lows offer accumulation opportunities
Right-translation confirms strong trend
Focus on entries near green arrows
Hold through red arrows in strong uptrends
Bear Markets
Cycle lows may be lower lows (downtrend continues)
Left-translation signals sustained weakness
Use for timing short-term bounce trades
Respect red arrows as exit signals
Sideways Markets
Cycles define range boundaries
Trade range: buy near green arrows, sell near red arrows
Repeated left-translation suggests distribution
Right-translation breakout signals trend resumption
Important Limitations
What This Indicator CANNOT Do
❌ Predict exact price targets
❌ Replace comprehensive market analysis
❌ Guarantee cycle timing precision
❌ Account for black swan events or macro shocks
❌ Work on altcoins or non-crypto assets
Accuracy Expectations
This automated tool approximates manual cycle analysis but cannot match human discretion. Professional analysts like Bob Loukas may consider:
Market narrative and sentiment
Volume profile and liquidity
Macro economic factors
On-chain data confluence
Realistic Expectations:
~70-80% accuracy on cycle low timing (±5 to 10 days)
Variable performance in ranging vs trending markets
Best used as timing framework, not standalone system
Complementary Analysis
Practical Examples
Scenario 1: Bull Market Entry
Current Status:
- Cycle Day: 57
- Phase: Late
- Translation: Right (previous cycle)
- % From Low: -4.2%
Action Plan:
1. Price approaching day 60 window
2. Right-translation suggests continued strength
3. Set alerts for volume spike
4. Prepare buy orders 5-8% below current price
5. Wait for green arrow confirmation
6. Enter on day 1-5 of new cycle
Scenario 2: Bear Market Caution
Current Status:
- Cycle Day: 34
- Phase: Mid
- Translation: Left (current cycle peaked day 26)
- % From Low: +18.7%
Action Plan:
1. Left-translation signals weakness
2. Already well into cycle (day 34)
3. Red arrow may appear soon
4. Set tight trailing stop
5. Consider partial profit-taking
6. Avoid new longs this late in weak cycle
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why Bitcoin only?
A: The 60-day cycle is a Bitcoin-specific pattern observed over multiple market cycles. Altcoins have different rhythms tied to BTC correlation.
Q: Does it work on lower timeframes?
A: No. The indicator is designed for and locked to the Daily (1D) timeframe. Lower timeframes create too much noise.
Q: Can I use this for leverage trading?
A: Cycle timing can inform leverage entries, but always use proper risk management. The cycle is probabilistic, not guaranteed.
Q: What if a cycle extends past day 65?
A: Extended cycles indicate consolidation or distribution. Reduce position size and wait for confirmation.
Q: How do I know if a cycle "failed"?
A: If price breaks below the previous cycle low, the cycle structure has failed, suggesting trend weakness.
Q: Should I buy every day 60?
A: No. Day 60 is a timing window, not a buy signal. Wait for technical confirmation (green arrow, volume, support hold) and combine with other confluences to decide on the trade.
Changelog
v1.0: Initial public release
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals.
Key Risks:
Past cycle patterns do not guarantee future results
Automated detection has inherent limitations
Market conditions can invalidate cycle analysis
Always use proper risk management and position sizing
Never trade based solely on one indicator. Combine cycle analysis with fundamental research, technical analysis, risk management, and your own due diligence.
Trading cryptocurrencies carries substantial risk of loss. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose completely.
Credits
Cycle analysis methodology inspired by Bob Loukas and the cryptocurrency cycle analysis community. Automated detection developed independently using pivot analysis and statistical filtering.
📌 Want automated alerts when various cycle trigger points flash? Visit my profile for premium version access.
發行說明
Bitcoin 60-Day Cycle Tracker [FREE]🎯 Quick Start
This is the FREE version with visual cycle tracking. Want automated alerts? Want the summary realtime dashboard with much more useful information? See "Premium Version" section below - it costs only $47.
發行說明
Improved BTC ticker symbol detection to avoid picking up Alt BTC pairs such as ethbtc etc. The count is generally only meaningful for BTC alone. 受保護腳本
此腳本以閉源形式發佈。 不過，您可以自由且不受任何限制地使用它 — 在此處了解更多資訊。
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免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。