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GUSI
GUSI Free — Adaptive Bitcoin Cycle Risk (0–100)
What it does
GUSI Free converts multiple cycle-relevant metrics into a single 0–100 risk score for Bitcoin. Instead of static thresholds (which tend to degrade across cycles), GUSI uses cycle-aware, time-varying trigger levels and long-horizon normalization to keep signals meaningful as the market matures. The panel shows the composite line plus actionable trigger levels that highlight overheated vs. deep-value conditions.
What’s new vs. typical versions
Decreasing/Sloped trigger functions: Each metric is evaluated against non-horizontal, time-adjusted thresholds so that tops don’t rely on fixed numbers that become obsolete as adoption and liquidity evolve.
Long-term normalization: Outlier-resistant smoothing and z-score style lookbacks reduce distortion from short, violent swings.
Composite risk mapping: Modernized component signals are transformed to a unit scale and merged into one interpretable 0–100 metric—clearer to read, harder to misread.
How the model is built (proprietary, modernized components)
Each element below is a modified version of a familiar idea, adapted for cycle drift and volatility profile changes:
Logarithmic MACD (LMACD): Computed in log-return space with Ehlers-style smoothing, evaluated against down-sloping top and up-tilting bottom bands.
MVRV-Z (regression-guided): Market-to-realized premium mapped to cycle-aware upper/lower bands that decline/rise over time rather than sit flat.
NUPL / NUPL-Z blend: Tops assessed with a declining NUPL threshold, bottoms with dynamic z-score normalization, then fused to a single risk contribution.
Puell Multiple (log-decay): Issuance revenue multiple measured against log-decaying top and gently rising bottom references.
Weekly RSI (bottom context): A weekly momentum filter contributes only to downside risk context to avoid double-counting tops.
Risk-metric construction (0–100)
Each component is scaled between its cycle-aware bottom and top reference, producing a bounded unit risk.
Internally weighted components are combined into one composite, then scaled to 0–100.
The panel overlays trigger levels commonly used by GUSI users:
Around 97 → historically consistent with top-risk environments.
Around 2.5 → historically consistent with deep accumulation conditions.
Background highlights and labels make these zones explicit, so the chart conveys state (distribution/accumulation) at a glance.
Intended chart context
Use on INDEX:BTCUSD, 1D timeframe for the designed behavior.
Scope & realism
This is an analytical risk model, not a promise of returns. Historical alignment with cycle extremes does not guarantee future outcomes. Always combine with independent risk management and confirm on-chain/data availability.
What it does
GUSI Free converts multiple cycle-relevant metrics into a single 0–100 risk score for Bitcoin. Instead of static thresholds (which tend to degrade across cycles), GUSI uses cycle-aware, time-varying trigger levels and long-horizon normalization to keep signals meaningful as the market matures. The panel shows the composite line plus actionable trigger levels that highlight overheated vs. deep-value conditions.
What’s new vs. typical versions
Decreasing/Sloped trigger functions: Each metric is evaluated against non-horizontal, time-adjusted thresholds so that tops don’t rely on fixed numbers that become obsolete as adoption and liquidity evolve.
Long-term normalization: Outlier-resistant smoothing and z-score style lookbacks reduce distortion from short, violent swings.
Composite risk mapping: Modernized component signals are transformed to a unit scale and merged into one interpretable 0–100 metric—clearer to read, harder to misread.
How the model is built (proprietary, modernized components)
Each element below is a modified version of a familiar idea, adapted for cycle drift and volatility profile changes:
Logarithmic MACD (LMACD): Computed in log-return space with Ehlers-style smoothing, evaluated against down-sloping top and up-tilting bottom bands.
MVRV-Z (regression-guided): Market-to-realized premium mapped to cycle-aware upper/lower bands that decline/rise over time rather than sit flat.
NUPL / NUPL-Z blend: Tops assessed with a declining NUPL threshold, bottoms with dynamic z-score normalization, then fused to a single risk contribution.
Puell Multiple (log-decay): Issuance revenue multiple measured against log-decaying top and gently rising bottom references.
Weekly RSI (bottom context): A weekly momentum filter contributes only to downside risk context to avoid double-counting tops.
Risk-metric construction (0–100)
Each component is scaled between its cycle-aware bottom and top reference, producing a bounded unit risk.
Internally weighted components are combined into one composite, then scaled to 0–100.
The panel overlays trigger levels commonly used by GUSI users:
Around 97 → historically consistent with top-risk environments.
Around 2.5 → historically consistent with deep accumulation conditions.
Background highlights and labels make these zones explicit, so the chart conveys state (distribution/accumulation) at a glance.
Intended chart context
Use on INDEX:BTCUSD, 1D timeframe for the designed behavior.
Scope & realism
This is an analytical risk model, not a promise of returns. Historical alignment with cycle extremes does not guarantee future outcomes. Always combine with independent risk management and confirm on-chain/data availability.
僅限邀請腳本
只有經作者批准的使用者才能訪問此腳本。您需要申請並獲得使用權限。該權限通常在付款後授予。如欲了解更多詳情，請依照以下作者的說明操作，或直接聯絡PanduPanduPandu。
除非您完全信任其作者並了解腳本的工作原理，否則TradingView不建議您付費或使用腳本。您也可以在我們的社群腳本中找到免費的開源替代方案。
作者的說明
More information on our public discord: https://discord.gg/vpW5FpwztR
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。
僅限邀請腳本
只有經作者批准的使用者才能訪問此腳本。您需要申請並獲得使用權限。該權限通常在付款後授予。如欲了解更多詳情，請依照以下作者的說明操作，或直接聯絡PanduPanduPandu。
除非您完全信任其作者並了解腳本的工作原理，否則TradingView不建議您付費或使用腳本。您也可以在我們的社群腳本中找到免費的開源替代方案。
作者的說明
More information on our public discord: https://discord.gg/vpW5FpwztR
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。