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Hidden Markov Model

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Description

This model uses a Hidden Markov Model to detect potential tops and bottoms. It is designed to probabilistically identify market regime changes and predict potential reversal point using a forward algorithm to calculate the probability of a state.

State 0: (Normal Trading): Market continuation patterns, balanced buying/selling
State 1: (Top Formation): Exhaustion patterns at price highs
State 2: (Bottom Formation): Capitulation patterns at price lows

Background: The HMM assumes that market behavior follows hidden states that aren't directly observable, but can be inferred from observable market data (emissions). The model uses a (somewhat simplified) Bayesian inference to estimate these probabilities.

How to use

1) Identify the trend (you can also use it counter-trend)
2) For longing, look for a green arrow. The probability values should be red. For shorting, look for a red arrow. The probability values should be green
3) For added confluence, look for high probability values

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