Bitcoin 4 Year SMA Deviation / DCA HODL gauge

Bitcoin 4‑Year SMA Deviation (Daily‑Locked) – Long‑Term Baseline & DCA Guide for HODLers. Bitcoin’s price swings wildly in the short term, but over several years it tends to settle around a smoother trend. A 4‑year simple moving average (SMA) captures that long‑term trajectory, filtering out daily noise, and giving a reliable “baseline” that reflects Bitcoin’s underlying growth path.

Historical consistency: Most of Bitcoin’s major cycles have respected the 4‑year SMA, making it a trustworthy yardstick for anyone who holds the asset for the long term.

What the indicator does

Calculates deviation – Shows the percentage distance between today’s price and the 4‑year SMA.
Displays a histogram – Visualizes the deviation in real‑time, colour‑coded to highlight how far the price sits above or below the baseline.
Daily‑locked logic – All calculations are performed on daily candles, so the signal looks the same whether you view the chart on a 1‑minute, 4‑hour, or weekly timeframe.

How it helps with DCA (Dollar‑Cost Averaging) for HODLers

Spot buying opportunities: When the histogram dips deep into the green zone, Bitcoin is trading at a relative discount to its long‑term trend—an ideal moment to increase your regular DCA contributions.
Guard against over‑buying: A strong positive deviation indicates a "red zone", the market is stretched above its historic baseline, suggesting a smaller or paused DCA pace.
Quantify confidence: The exact percentage off the SMA gives you a concrete metric to size each DCA tranche, turning gut feeling into a data‑driven plan.

Bottom line for HODLers
Treat the 4‑year SMA as your long‑term compass for Bitcoin. This indicator tells you how far the current price has drifted from that compass, allowing you to decide how aggressively—or conservatively—to execute your DCA strategy. Use it alongside your personal risk tolerance and holding horizon to fine‑tune the cadence and size of your regular Bitcoin purchases. When in doubt, zoom out!